Created on April 24, 2026

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Trying to Find Support at the 50 Day EMA

• The euro has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see the 50-day EMA offering support.

  

• The market is of course going to be watching the 50-day EMA as a floor and so far, it does look like it’s trying to hold up.

It is worth noting that the 10-year yield in the United States rose pretty significantly early during the session only to give that back up. Ultimately when I look at the EUR/USD chart, if we break down below the 50-day EMA then we could drop down to the 200-day EMA. To the upside of the 1.18 level is a barrier that I think is thick. It extends all the way to the 1.1850 level.

Interest Rate Differentials and Energy Prism

With this, I think you have a situation where traders are looking at this through the interest rate differential which favors the United States, but you should also keep in mind that traders are going to be looking at this through the prism of energy in the European Union as well.

After all, if there’s a major disruption in energy coming out of the Middle East to the European Union that’s going to have a massive influence on how their economies perform. So really at this point I think a little of a bounce makes a certain amount of sense, but there is a lot of resistance above and I think that will continue to be a bit of a struggle to get beyond there.

Really the only thing that I could see happening is if we see an end to the conflict in the Middle East. If we don’t, then you can look at this from a longer-term standpoint between the 1.14 and the 1.1850 level, but really, I think you’ve got a situation where you’re looking at this through the eyes of a range that’s getting close to the middle, so things might get choppy.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.