Oil prices have fallen back from recent highs, with OIL/USD trading near $90.54 after reaching $95.32 earlier this week. However, Rabobank believes the market is underestimating the severity of the ongoing energy supply disruption.

The bank now expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain effectively closed through the summer, with September viewed as the earliest realistic point for a broader reopening and normalisation of flows.

“We remain skeptical about the futures market’s ability to price the risk of disruption that has occurred in the physical energy markets.”

Rabobank argues that strategic petroleum reserve releases and weaker demand are masking a global supply deficit.

“The world is facing a deficit of more than 11 million barrels per day and we see current prices as misleading.”

The bank is particularly concerned about diesel markets, warning that shortages could become severe during the third quarter.

“Between July and September, our scenario analysis shows that diesel and jet fuel markets will be in crisis levels of shortage in several locations.”

According to Rabobank, the market remains too complacent about the length of the disruption and the time required to restore normal supply chains once a deal is eventually reached.

Brent Oil Forecast: $140 Peak Still Possible

Rabobank’s central scenario sees Brent crude rising substantially if disruptions persist.

“Brent crude reaches approximately $140 at its peak and sustains above $120 for an extended period in August.”

As a result, the bank has lifted its Q3 2026 Brent forecast to an average of $120 per barrel, while also raising its 2027 forecasts.

Even if the Strait reopens later this year, Rabobank expects shipping bottlenecks, refinery constraints and lost production capacity to keep energy markets tight well into 2027.