Oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile this week as traders continue to monitor developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and upcoming U.S. inventory data.

Bullish scenario

If military tensions escalate further or any disruption to shipping routes in the Gulf is confirmed, crude oil could extend its rally. A sustained move above $80 would likely attract additional momentum buying, increasing the probability of WTI testing $82–85 in the coming sessions. Falling U.S. crude inventories would provide another supportive catalyst.

Neutral scenario

If geopolitical headlines stabilize without further escalation, WTI may consolidate between $77 and $80 as traders digest the recent surge. Markets would then shift their focus to macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve expectations, and global demand indicators.

Bearish scenario

The main downside risk is a de-escalation in Middle East tensions or signs that oil exports remain largely unaffected. In addition, concerns about global oversupply and potential production increases from major producers could limit further gains. Under this scenario, WTI could retreat toward the $75–76 support zone before finding fresh buying interest.

Weekly Outlook

Overall, the short-term bias remains bullish, but price action is likely to stay headline-driven. Geopolitical developments will continue to dominate sentiment, making crude oil one of the most volatile assets in global markets this week.

WTI Weekly Forecast: $77.00–85.00

• Bullish target: $82.50–85.00

• Base case: $77.00–80.00

  

• Bearish risk: $75.00–76.00

For active traders, the $80 level remains the most important resistance to watch. A confirmed breakout could signal the start of another bullish leg, while failure to hold above $77.50 may trigger a short-term correction before the next directional move.