Seasonal Shifts and Contract Rollovers

The question now will be what happens when we roll over into the October contract in a couple of weeks. We start to think about cooler weather in the Northeast here in the United States. That’s generally when we have a couple of days here and there that we have to start turning on the heat.

So that is typically the beginning of a little bit more bullish momentum. The situation in the Middle East could get out of hand pretty quickly, and if Qatar’s natural gas production gets hit again by Iranian missiles, that could throw things into disarray, especially in the winter.

Ultimately, I am a seasonal trader here. We’re still in a pretty weak time of year, so I don’t like natural gas overall, but there are a few months coming up that tend to be very bullish. As things stand right now, any rally would probably have to contend with the 50-day EMA at $2.90, and then the $3 level as potential resistance.