Scotiabank’s conditional GBP/USD objective sits above consensus after Pound Sterling tests the 1.3650/60 resistance area

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has tested the mid-1.36s, putting Scotiabank’s conditional route towards 1.41 into focus.

ERUK market data show GBP/USD reached an intraday high near 1.3675 before slipping back towards 1.3645, so the sustained push required by Scotiabank has not yet occurred.

The bank’s scenario depends on a durable advance beyond the 1.3650/60 area, which has contained Sterling near its early-May peak.

It is a notably bullish technical case: ERUK’s Research Currency Forecast Sentiment Survey places the median fourth-quarter forecast at 1.3446 and the top of the surveyed range at 1.40.

Scotiabank analysts noted the recent move reflected broad US Dollar weakness more than a sudden improvement in UK fundamentals.

Nevertheless, the bank judged the technical structure to be firmly positive after GBP/USD twice defended the 1.3150 area during April and June.

The strategists said “a sustained push above 1.3650/60 implies potential for an extension towards the 1.41 zone over the balance of the year”.

That makes 1.41 a possible extension rather than a guaranteed year-end destination, with Sterling still needing to establish former resistance as support.

1.3848 as the intermediate test

Sucden Financial analysts highlighted 1.3650/60 as the breakout zone and said the next broader objective was 1.3848.

Sucden described the set-up as one “with the January high around 1.3848 representing a broader upside target”.

The level therefore offers an intermediate test of whether Scotiabank’s larger scenario is gaining traction.

The two institutions reach a similar bullish conclusion but on different horizons.

Sucden’s 1.3848 is the first substantial obstacle above the trigger, while Scotiabank’s conditional 1.41 objective extends through the balance of 2026.

Sucden placed initial support near 1.3600 and a deeper cushion around 1.3500, where the 20-day average and 30-day volume-weighted average price reinforce the technical floor.

A daily close below 1.3600 would weaken the breakout case and expose 1.3500, while a sustained hold above 1.3650/60 would strengthen the route towards 1.3848 and 1.41.

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