Geopolitical risk has once again taken centre stage in crude oil markets as we enter September. Iran and the US traded strikes in the Middle East, pushing Brent crude futures above $90 — right where they started in August.

This recent price increase highlights how quickly crude markets are responding to geopolitical developments. The path towards the psychological price of $100 seems increasingly plausible.

Oil Price Today: Brent and WTI Rebound on Middle East Risk

On 1 September, oil prices rose as renewed tensions between the US and Iran in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions from the world’s major crude-producing region.

Brent crude futures increased by 56 cents (0.6%) to $91.05 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 83 cents (1%) to $86.59 per barrel.

These increases followed strong performances in the previous session, when Brent settled 2.7% higher after reaching its highest level since 25 August. WTI also advanced by 2.8% and briefly reached its highest level since 21 August.

Oil benchmark	September 1, 2026	Recent move	Key level to watch
Brent crude	$91.05/bbl	+0.6%	$100
WTI crude	$86.59/bbl	+1.0%	$90–$100
Brent previous-session gain	—	+2.7%	—
WTI previous-session gain	—	+2.8%	—

What’s Driving Crude Oil Prices?

In September, US President Donald Trump warned of additional strikes against Iran after the two countries exchanged direct attacks for the first time in a month on Sunday. This development has further escalated tensions in the ongoing conflict, which recently evolved into an economic standoff.

Meanwhile, according to shipping data from Kpler, the number of visible commodity vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just five a day over the weekend. Efforts by mediators, including Qatar and Oman, to broker an agreement to reopen the strategic waterway have so far been unsuccessful.

Before the conflict began in late February, the Strait of Hormuz accounted for around one-fifth of global oil supplies. Iran closed the waterway after the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on 28 February, disrupting a critical route for global energy shipments.

If traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, the oil market could remain structurally tight even if global demand weakens. The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the probability that Brent will reach $100 or more.

Could Brent Crude Reach $100 Again in September?

Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have once again brought Brent crude into the spotlight, raising concerns over the global oil supply. The key question for investors is whether this latest rally can push Brent back above the important psychological threshold of $100 per barrel. The answer is yes, but whether $100 becomes a temporary spike or a sustainable trading level will depend on the duration of the geopolitical disruption.

The strongest bullish catalyst is currently geopolitical supply disruption. The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important as it is a major transit route for global oil flows. According to EIA data, Brent climbed as high as $105 per barrel on 23 July 2026 following renewed tanker attacks and restrictions on shipments through the waterway.

Another bullish factor is the decline in global oil inventories. The IEA reported that global oil supply remained substantially below pre-war levels and that continued disruption to Middle Eastern production and transportation had reduced the 2026 supply outlook.

This creates a scenario in which Brent could quickly return to $100 if physical supply losses accelerate. $100 is now a realistic upside scenario rather than a certain outcome. Before the market could establish a convincing path towards the psychological $100 threshold, Brent would likely need to break and hold above $95.

Brent forecast	Probability	Implication	Key driver
Bear case	$75–$85	Lower	Ceasefire + reopening of Hormuz
Base case	$85–$95	Moderate	Persistent disruption but partial flows
Bull case	$95–$110	Rising	Prolonged shipping restrictions
Extreme upside	$110–$120	Low	Major infrastructure/export disruption

What Do Other Oil Forecasts Say?

Prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East have kept the outlook for crude oil prices elevated. However, market forecasts remain significantly more conservative than the current geopolitical risk premium.

According to a Reuters poll, analysts have maintained forecasts for oil prices above $80 a barrel in 2026, as shipping disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict drive expectations of reduced supplies, while weak demand in China limits the upside.

In an August survey, 31 economists and analysts predicted an average Brent crude price of $85.08 per barrel and an average U.S. crude price of $80.20 per barrel in 2026, which is roughly in line with July’s forecasts of $85.22 and $80.14, respectively.

TA Securities increased its forecast for the price of Brent crude to US$90 per barrel in 2026, stating that prices could surpass US$100 per barrel in the event of a more severe escalation that disrupts regional oil production or the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

The research firm maintained its ‘neutral’ outlook on the oil and gas sector, stating that stronger upstream and gas earnings were offset by downstream losses and uncertainty regarding the sustainability of elevated oil prices.

Conclusion

The oil market enters September with an unusually powerful combination of geopolitical and fundamental risks. $100 Brent is achievable, but it is not yet the most likely sustained price level. The next major signal for traders will be whether Brent can decisively break $95 while physical supply disruptions continue. If that happens alongside further inventory draws and worsening tensions around Hormuz, $100–$120 becomes a realistic upside zone. Conversely, a durable ceasefire and reopening of key shipping routes could quickly remove the geopolitical premium and send crude back toward the $75–$85 range.

FAQs

1. Can oil prices reach $100 per barrel again?

Yes. Brent crude could retest $100 per barrel if U.S.-Iran tensions escalate further, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, or major Middle Eastern oil infrastructure is disrupted. Brent was recently trading around $91 per barrel, leaving it roughly 10% below the $100 threshold.

2. Why is oil rising amid Middle East tensions?

The latest rally is primarily driven by concerns about potential disruptions to crude production and transportation, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have revived fears that oil flows through the strategic waterway could remain constrained.

4. Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important for oil prices?

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints and historically handled approximately one-fifth of global oil flows. Any prolonged disruption can tighten physical supply and increase the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.

5. What could push Brent crude above $100?

The most important bullish catalysts include a prolonged Hormuz disruption, attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, declining global inventories, and further reductions in Gulf oil exports. A sustained supply shortage would make a move above $100 more likely.

6. What could prevent oil from reaching $100?

A durable U.S.-Iran ceasefire, restoration of Hormuz shipping, recovery of Middle Eastern production and weaker global oil demand could limit the upside. EIA currently expects Brent to average around $85 per barrel in Q3 2026 and gradually decline as production recovers.