Goldman sees USD/JPY falling to 140-145, while Crédit Agricole forecasts a rebound to 163 by December.

The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate ended Friday near 156.25 following one of its sharpest weekly reversals of 2026.

USD/JPY fell from above 160.00 to a low near 155.31 before recovering 0.38% during Friday’s session.

The move has opened a striking disagreement between a Goldman Sachs trader and Crédit Agricole.

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The 48-hour chart shows the pair falling almost continuously from 158.95 before stabilising around 156.25.

Support is located near 155.30, while a recovery through 157.10-157.25 would weaken the immediate bearish signal.

Goldman analyst outlines 140-145 scenario

A Goldman G10 spot trader linked the Yen’s advance to hawkish Bank of Japan comments, carry-trade liquidation and speculation that Japan’s GPIF could increase its domestic bond allocation.

The trader said: “If US data comes in softer, or the Fed isn’t able to hike, and in combination with that, the BOJ come across more hawkish, I think you can see USDJPY continue to grind lower. But it really is all about this shift from the GPIF which really gets us lower into the 140-145 range over the next 6-12 months.”

The 140-145 range is a conditional trader view, not the official Goldman Sachs house forecast.

Friday’s 162,000 payroll increase also challenges one of its central assumptions by reducing the immediate risk of softer US data or a less hawkish Federal Reserve.

Crédit Agricole sees a return to 163

Crédit Agricole takes the opposite near-term view, forecasting USD/JPY at 162 in September and 163 in December.

Its projections then decline gradually to 162 in March 2027, 161 in June, 158 in September and 156 by December 2027.

The bank said: “Record levels of intervention have capped USD/JPY’s rally at 164, but for the JPY to stage a sustainable rally the BoJ needs to accelerate the pace of its rate hikes reducing the currency’s appeal as a carry funder.”

It added: “Elevated oil prices and investor concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability still weigh on the JPY.”

A GPIF shift could change that balance.

Crédit Agricole noted: “If Japan’s GPIF allocates more of its AUM to domestic bonds capping super-long end JGB yields, fiscal sustainability concerns would ease.”

The MUFG forecast for USD/JPY at 152 sits much closer to the Goldman trader’s direction than Crédit Agricole’s 163 call.

Price action around 155.30 and 157.25 will provide the first indication of whether the latest Yen surge is extending or beginning to correct.

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