2026.09.11 2026.09.11
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 11.09.26–18.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Once the correction has been completed, consider short positions below the level of 157.50 with a target of 151.76–148.92. A sell signal: the local correction ends and the price holds below 157.50. Stop Loss: above 158.10, Take Profit: 151.76–148.92.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 157.50 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90. A buy signal: the level of 157.50 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 156.90, Take Profit: 160.48–163.90.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions below 157.50 with a target of 151.76–148.92 once the correction is completed.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 157.50 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed, a downward correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4, and the fifth wave 5 is developing. Apparently, the first wave of smaller degree (1) of 5 has formed and a bearish correction (2) of 5 is developing on the daily chart. On the H4 time frame, wave A of (2) is developing. Within it, wave iii of A has been completed, and a local correction is forming as wave iv of A. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to decline to 151.76–148.92 after the correction ends. The level of 157.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode