The U.S. Dollar Index eased after the report, falling from a session high at 102.132 to near 101.74. It remains above the 50-day moving average at 99.94 after a sharp run higher. The dollar gave gold some room Friday. Control of the currency trade is another matter.

That’s why gold couldn’t hold the first spike. The metal got a weaker jobs report, lower October hike odds, a lower 10-Year yield and a softer dollar. It still couldn’t take out the 61.8% level.

What to Watch

The payrolls report pushed the October rate trade out of the way. Friday’s bounce is running on short-end relief. Gold still needs the long end of the bond market to follow it lower. The 10-Year and the dollar backed off Friday without breaking anything on their charts.

The bias is to the downside with the main trend down on the swing chart. The jobs report gave gold a chance to repair the break and it stalled before the 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Spot Gold is still trading under the 50% level at $4,319.61 and the 50-day moving average at $4,327.50. This week’s low at $4,110.87 is the level underneath.

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