Winter Baseline

The EIA’s October 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook supplies a separate winter baseline. It projects end-of-October inventories around 3,850 billion cubic feet, roughly 2% above the 5-year average. This model assumes winter heating degree days near last winter’s national level, and inputs were closed October 1. Later weather and operational developments therefore require further assessment.

Supply Growth

Supply growth and export demand remain a competing structural influence, with the EIA forecasting U.S. dry production averaging 112.2 billion cubic feet daily in 2026 and 116.3 billion cubic feet daily in 2027, while LNG exports average 17.6 and 18.6 billion cubic feet daily. These are annual projections, not current daily production or terminal feed gas measurements. Sustained production growth would create more room to accommodate exports and domestic demand. However, a forecast of additional supply is less useful for near-term pricing than evidence that gas is actually being produced or delivered. The distinction applies to LNG capacity, capability, and realized demand on the pipeline system; they are different issues.