Oil Price Forecast: Goldman’s $90 Brent Outlook Faces a Supply Test

Brent oil has eased, but Goldman Sachs still sees supply risks slowing its decline as recovering exports offer an incomplete picture of Gulf production.

More oil leaving the Gulf does not necessarily mean the region is producing more crude, a distinction that helps explain why Goldman Sachs still expects supply risks to keep Brent expensive even as prices retreat.

The bank’s latest outlook retains $90 a barrel for December 2026, following its previously announced increase from $85.

Brent was quoted near $105.37 on Thursday afternoon, down 0.28% from the previous close, leaving the December projection well below the market despite the upgrade.

“More crude reaching international markets does not necessarily mean more oil is being produced,” says Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

“Some of the recovery reflects a redistribution of available barrels, including volumes that would otherwise have supplied regional refineries.”

Diverting crude to export markets can ease the shortage facing overseas buyers while leaving fewer barrels for local fuel production.

It therefore offers less reassurance than a sustained increase in output, particularly while shipping routes and energy infrastructure remain vulnerable to attack.

Brent retreats despite continuing disruption

The latest decline also reflects a broader move away from riskier assets, rather than clear evidence that the supply problem has been resolved.

Deutsche Bank recorded an overnight reversal in oil after Wednesday’s rise as the technology-share sell-off spread across global markets.

The bank noted: “Moreover, that’s despite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy saying to the FT that Ukraine would resume its strikes on Russian refineries.”

Renewed refinery disruption matters for crude and refined products in different ways.

A refinery processing less oil can reduce demand for its raw material, while its lost diesel or petrol output leaves customers competing for fewer finished fuels.

That can produce falling crude prices alongside expensive fuel, making a single Brent quote an incomplete measure of the pressure on energy users.

Goldman’s December view builds on the forecast revision examined in our earlier analysis of recovering Gulf exports and persistent disruption premiums.

The bank’s latest quarterly projections also point towards an easing market, with Brent at $87 for Q1 2027.

That quarterly figure is a different horizon from the December call, rather than a second price expected on the same date.

Emergency fuel supplies offer a separate route to relief

Governments can respond to product shortages without waiting for crude production and refinery operations to recover fully.

The International Energy Agency has urged members to consider accelerating previously pledged stock releases, prioritising diesel, and to assess whether additional releases are warranted.

Its statement sets out possible action rather than confirming a new agreed release volume.

The inflation consequences of continued disruption were visible in Thursday’s US producer-price figures, which showed diesel prices for processed intermediate demand rising 21% in September.

That is an upstream US price measure, not an increase at British filling stations, but it illustrates how pressure can persist further along the supply chain.

Goldman’s analysts continue to watch both sides of the energy balance: “The situation in the Middle East remains fluid and we will be closely watching how the region’s energy exports as well as demand for its energy from key consumers like China continue to evolve.”

Oil price FAQ

What is Goldman’s December Brent forecast?

Goldman Sachs retains $90 a barrel for December 2026 after previously raising the forecast from $85.

Why do recovering exports not guarantee more oil supply?

Some exported crude may be diverted from regional refineries rather than coming from additional production.

Can diesel stay expensive while Brent falls?

Yes: refinery disruption can restrict finished-fuel supply even when crude prices retreat.