Regional detail also causes a few wrinkles. South Central stocks were at 1,097 Bcf, compared with a five-year average of 1,132 Bcf. Within that region, salt cavern stocks were 236 Bcf against a 279 Bcf average. Other regions partially offset that shortfall in the national comparison. These figures are relevant to the Gulf area balance associated with Henry Hub, but do not by themselves establish any pipeline constraint.

The latest official weather outlook leans against a broad late-October heating surge. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued a discussion at 3 p.m. EDT on Oct. 18 for Oct. 24-28. It favored above-normal temperatures across most of the eastern half of the country, with probabilities exceeding 80% in parts of the Upper Midwest. Cooler-than-normal odds were elevated in parts of the West, while portions of the eastern seaboard leaned closer to normal.

These are probabilities relative to seasonal norms, not measured temperatures or quantified gas-demand forecasts. A warm Upper Midwest could restrain heating needs compared with a colder alternative. However, the location and duration of any outbreaks of cold will still matter, and warm conditions can retain some cooling demand in the very deep South.

EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook provides a broader benchmark with an important timing limitation. Released on Oct. 6 and current through Oct. 1, it forecasts storage of 3,850 Bcf at the end of October, roughly 2% above the five-year average. This is a modeled result, not gas already measured in storage. It also predates NOAA’s Oct. 18 forecast and subsequent operational developments.