Coffee prices continued their three-week decline as arabica hit a 4.75-month low. The pressure stemmed primarily from expectations of increased coffee exports from Brazil , especially after ICE reported on Wednesday, November 11th, that 113,038 bags of Brazilian coffee were awaiting inspection at ICE warehouses – the highest level in eight months.

Coffee from Brazil has been arriving at warehouses at a rapid pace since mid-September, causing Brazilian coffee inventories at ICE warehouses to rise to their highest level in 14.25 months, reaching 112,682 bags on Wednesday, November 11.

Strong coffee exports from Brazil are also putting pressure on prices, after the Brazilian Ministry of Trade announced last Friday that the country’s coffee exports in October increased 23% year-on-year to 287,000 tons.

Coffee prices remained under pressure after the Brazilian real fell to its lowest level in 15 months against the US dollar on Tuesday. 10/11 .

A weaker real encourages exporters to sell more coffee, as they can earn higher USD prices from sales transactions.

Opposite to with robusta, the percentage is reduced. Prices were limited after the Indian Coffee Board last Wednesday lowered its forecast for the country’s coffee production in the 2026/27 season to 380,000 tonnes, a 5% decrease from its previous forecast of 400,000 tonnes, citing lower-than-normal monsoon rainfall. India is the world’s fifth-largest producer of robusta coffee.

Lien Regarding ICE inventory developments, ICE’s arabica inventory fell to its lowest level in 27 years, to 217,646 bags on September 15th, but edged up to 250,241 bags on Wednesday, November 11th. Although Brazilian coffee continues to arrive at ICE warehouses, this quantity has yet to appear in significant volumes in ICE-certified inventory figures.

Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories have surged since the beginning of October, reaching a 1.25-year high of 6,809 lots on October 29, before declining slightly to 6,633 lots on Wednesday, November 11.