“Cardano price is at war,” prominent crypto analyst Dan Gambardello asserts.

In recent weeks, one of the key drivers of optimism in the Cardano (ADA) community has been the prospect of institutional capital flooding into the asset following exchange-traded fund applications from Canary Capital and Grayscale.

Over the past 24 hours, however, the Securities and Exchange Commission has put the brakes on any excitement by delaying a decision on the Canary ADA ETF application until May 29.

Amid the delay, one analyst has suggested that the price of ADA, the network’s native token, is in a precarious position.

Cardano (ADA) Price At a Critical Juncture?

“Cardano price is at war,” prominent crypto analyst Dan Gambardello asserted in an analysis shared on Thursday, March 13.

The analyst expressed this view, noting that ADA was struggling to hold its 200-week moving average, which currently sits between $0.73 and $0.74. He asserted that closing and holding above the level would be critical for confidence that the asset’s overall trend remained bullish. This view comes as the 200-week MA is often used to confirm long-term trends.

In the meantime, Gambardello highlighted that ADA’s price is ranging between the 50 weekly MA and 20 weekly MA. He noted that the asset had replicated similar price action in the 2021 bull market cycle before breaking out.

Still, he warned that there was no guarantee that ADA would hold the range in the short term, especially if the Federal Reserve refuses to meet market expectations of a near interest rate cut.

“If the market doesn’t get what it wants from the Fed, in the very short term, we can easily see the volatility of crypto continue to the downside,” he explained.

In this instance, Gambardello warned that a drop to around $0.50 was not out of the question. This represents an over 31% short-term downside risk from the asset’s current price of $0.73.

The analyst noted that bulls would want to see ADA not only hold the 200 weekly MA but also break above the 20-day MA at $0.78 and the 50-day MA at $0.80. According to the analyst, a break above these levels could set up a run to $1.25, which he describes as “the upper end of the bull market doors.”