Despite providing bullish momentum by stochastic, however the fluctuation below the initial barrier at $3.520 level, which pushed it to form new bearish waves, repeating the pressure on the main support at $3.000.

 

The current support forms detecting key for the main trend in the upcoming trading, to expect its stability to begin forming new bullish waves, motivating it to surpass $3.520 barrier, to record new gains by its rally towards $3.750 and $4.000, while breaking the support and holding below it will force it to suffer big losses, to expect reaching $2.850 and $2.660 initially.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $3.000 and $3.520

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

Barclays boosted its Brent crude oil futures price forecast to around $100 per barrel on Saturday, up from $80 on Friday, after the United States and Israel bombed several sites in Iran.

“Oil markets might have to face their worst fears on Monday. As things stand right now, we think Brent could hit $100 (per barrel), as the market grapples with the threat of a ⁠potential supply disruption amid ⁠a spiraling security situation in the Middle East,” the bank said in a report.

The United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, targeting its top leaders and calling for the overthrow ⁠of its government, while Iran responded with missiles fired at Israel and neighboring Gulf countries.

Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday, with traders bracing for supply disruptions as nuclear talks between the US and Iran had yet to reach an agreement.

Brent settled at $72.48 a barrel.

About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of ⁠Hormuz between ⁠Oman and Iran, making any disruptions in the area a major risk to global oil supplies.

Gold (XAU/USD) gained traction and climbed above $5,200, ending the fourth consecutive week in positive territory. The next round of US-Iran talks and crucial macroeconomic data releases from the US will be watched closely by market participants in the short term.

Gold benefits from retreating US yields

Gold opened with a bullish gap and registered daily gains on Monday as investors reacted to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s response to the Supreme Court’s ruling against his administration’s tariffs on Friday. Trump vowed that they will impose even bigger levies using alternative legal frameworks, specifically citing national security conventions under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Over the weekend, the US president said that he will raise global tariffs to 15% from 10% “effective immediately” and warned that additional ones would follow.

After extending its rally to a fresh February-high above $5,200 in the early trading hours of the Asian session on Tuesday, Gold reversed its direction and closed the day in the red as the negative impact of the US trade policy uncertainty on risk mood faded away. 

While delivering his State of the Union speech in the early trading hours of the Asian session on Wednesday, Trump noted that there is no inflation and said he sees “tremendous growth,” pointing to tariffs as one of the main reasons behind the economic turnaround. Trump further added that almost all trading partners want to keep the trade deals they already made, despite the Supreme Court’s ruling. As Wall Street’s main indexes shot higher midweek, the US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand and allowed XAU/USD to register daily gains. 

Gold struggled to make a decisive move in either direction on Thursday. In the absence of high-impact economic data releases, retreating US Treasury bond yields helped XAU/USD hold its ground. The benchmark 10-year US bond yield declined below 4% for the first time since late November. On the flip side, the precious metal’s upside remained capped early Friday as geopolitical tensions eased after news outlets reported that the US and Iran made significant progress during Thursday’s nuclear talks in Geneva. 

In the second half of the day on Friday, however, re-escalating geopolitical tensions helped Gold climb above $5,200. Citing an email from the US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, NBC News reported that the diplomat has advised nonessential staff members to leave the country immediately. “He also urged anyone intending to leave to go ahead and book flights, citing the likely surge in demand out of Israel after the embassy’s move,” the outlet wrote.

Gold traders will scrutinize US data

The US economic calendar will offer critical data releases that could trigger the next directional action in Gold.

On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for February. In case the headline PMI comes in below 50 and points to a contraction in the manufacturing sector’s business activity, the immediate reaction could hurt the USD and open the door for a leg higher in XAU/USD.

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release the private sector employment figures for February on Wednesday, followed by the ISM Services PMI. A weaker-than-expected print in the ADP Employment Change data and a decline below 50 in the ISM Services Employment Index could cause investors to prepare for a disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday and trigger a USD selloff. Conversely, XAU/USD could come under bearish pressure if the ADP numbers and the PMI report point to healthy labor market conditions.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) official employment report will feature the Unemployment Rate, NFP and wage inflation figures for February on Friday.

n January, NFP rose by 130K, compared to the market expectation of 70K, and the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in December. An NFP increase of 100K or more could ease concerns over the labor market slack and boost the USD. The CME Group FedWatch Tool currently shows that markets virtually see no chance of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in March and price in about an 80% probability of one more policy hold in April. This positioning suggests that the USD has some room on the upside in case investors see a strong employment data as a confirmation of steady policy at least until June. In this scenario, US Treasury bond yields could recover sharply and cause XAU/USD to move south heading into the weekend.

On the other hand, a disappointing NFP print at or below 50K could cause market participants to reconsider the possibility of a rate cut in April and pave the way for a bullish XAU/USD action in the American session on Friday.

ING’s Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey argues that structural drivers are likely to support Gold prices in the near term. 

“As long as geopolitical fragmentation persists, a meaningful reversal in central bank gold demand looks unlikely. This structural floor continues to underpin the market at elevated price levels,” Manthey explains, while adding, “Our US economist expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in the second quarter, with policy becoming incrementally less restrictive over the coming quarters. Even a modest easing cycle would be supportive for Gold, lowering real yields and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets.”

Investors will also pay close attention to headlines from the next round of US-Iran negotiations in Vienna. US Vice President JD Vance said late Thursday that there is “no chance” the US will be involved in a prolonged war in the Middle East, but added that Trump was still weighing targeted military strikes against Iran. If the US strikes Iran to force an agreement, escalating geopolitical tensions could support Gold prices. On the flip side, a nuclear deal without any military action could have the opposite impact on the precious metal’s performance. 

Gold technical analysis: Bullish bias stays intact but lacks momentum

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart moves sideways near 60, and Gold trades well above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a consolidation phase within a bullish structure. 

The immediate resistance could be seen at $5,300 (round level). If Gold stabilizes above this level and confirms it as support, bulls could target $5,400 (static level, round level) ahead of $5,598 (all-time high).

On the downside, $5,090-$5,100 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the November-February uptrend, round level) aligns as the first support area before $4,870 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and $4,790 (50-day SMA).

LONDON, Feb 28, 2026, 12:44 GMT — Market closed.

• Weekend strikes in Iran put fresh pressure on LNG tanker routes and stoked energy supply jitters as markets prepared for Monday’s open.
• EU gas storage levels are running low for this late in the winter, exposing Europe to sharper price moves and the risk of cargo delays.
• European TTF and U.S. Henry Hub both closed out Friday in positive territory. Market participants are watching for any signs of a geopolitical risk premium heading into the next session.

Natural gas traders are bracing for the possibility of a fresh risk premium as U.S. and Israeli forces hit Iran on Saturday, escalating a conflict that’s already put energy markets on edge. Gas futures are closed until Monday, so prices won’t update until trading kicks back in. Reuters

The Strait of Hormuz has become the key concern. This narrow waterway is the main exit for LNG — that’s liquefied natural gas transported by tanker — headed toward Europe and Asia. Greece’s shipping ministry, in an advisory viewed by Reuters, instructed all Greek-flagged ships to steer clear of the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the strait itself, calling for “maximum vigilance.” Reuters

Europe faces that risk with storage levels already thin. As of Feb. 27, EU gas inventories were down to 343.84 terawatt-hours, just 30.09% of capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Gas Infrastructure Europe

Gas prices had already climbed on Friday, ahead of the strikes. Dutch TTF—the key European benchmark—settled at 32.43 euros per megawatt-hour, a gain of 1.69%. UK gas finished the session at 79.79 pence per therm, up 2.66%. Trading Economics

April Henry Hub futures finished the day at $2.859 per mmBtu, a gain of 1.06% for the U.S. gas benchmark. MarketWatch

Oil’s rally factors into the equation, especially for gas, which tends to move on the same headline-driven risk. Brent finished Friday at $72.48 a barrel. According to Barclays, the $3 to $5 per barrel risk premium—essentially insurance for potential supply shocks—could “fade quickly” absent any real disruption. Reuters

Producers across the Gulf are taking early steps to steady the market. According to sources cited by Reuters, Abu Dhabi plans to ship more Murban crude in April, while Saudi Arabia is also increasing production. The extra supply, TP ICAP’s Scott Shelton noted, might “create a short-term buffer” should tanker traffic avoid Hormuz. Reuters

When it comes to gas, it’s the flow of tankers, insurance terms, and port access that matter more than volumes from Iran. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to squeeze spot LNG supply—and that’s enough to send European hub prices higher, regardless of how pipeline deliveries look.

LNG exports keep the U.S. market tied to the geopolitics game, siphoning gas from the local grid. Cheniere flagged a $370 million tax credit for burning LNG aboard its ships and wouldn’t comment further, putting shipping costs and fuel math back in focus for traders. Reuters

Longer-term LNG demand isn’t fading from focus, not with contracting still active. Venture Global inked a fresh 20-year supply agreement with South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace on Friday, deliveries kicking off in 2030. The company’s contracted volumes now top 46 million tonnes a year, according to its statement. Reuters

Still, the gas rally could unravel just as quickly. Should hostilities remain localized, with shipping uninterrupted and Europe entering shoulder season when heating demand tapers off, that geopolitical premium might disappear almost overnight.

Oil markets open Sunday with OPEC+ on the docket, sources say, meeting after the Iran strike to weigh upping supply beyond earlier projections. If the group opts for a larger hike, that could pull crude prices lower and ease pressure across the energy sector. Reuters

Attention shifts to Monday’s open, with gas desks scanning for disruption headlines or signs of war-risk premiums that could quickly squeeze LNG cargo margins. Stateside, traders are eyeing Thursday, March 5, when the weekly storage report lands — a recurring data release that CME highlights as a major mover for gas futures. cmegroup.com

BitcoinWorld

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Soars Past $90 as AI Valuation Fears Trigger Stunning Safe-Haven Rush

Global financial markets witnessed a significant shift on Thursday, March 13, 2025, as the silver price (XAG/USD) surged decisively above the $90 per ounce threshold, marking its highest nominal level in history. This remarkable rally, primarily driven by escalating concerns over artificial intelligence stock valuations, has triggered a substantial rotation into traditional safe-haven assets. Consequently, analysts are now revising their silver price forecast upward, citing a complex interplay of technological uncertainty and macroeconomic hedging.

Silver Price Forecast: Analyzing the Breakthrough Above $90

The London Bullion Market Association recorded the spot silver price at $90.42 per ounce during European trading hours, representing a 4.7% single-day gain. This movement follows a sustained upward trajectory that began in late 2024. Market technicians highlight that silver has now broken through a critical multi-decade resistance zone between $85 and $88. Historically, such breakouts have preceded extended bullish phases for the white metal. Furthermore, trading volume for silver futures on the COMEX exchange surged to 235% of its 30-day average, indicating strong institutional participation in this move.

Several key technical indicators now support a constructive silver price forecast. The 50-day moving average has crossed bullishly above the 200-day average, forming what traders call a “golden cross.” Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) for XAG/USD sits at 68, suggesting momentum without immediate overbought conditions. Market structure data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also reveals that managed money accounts have increased their net-long positions in silver futures for seven consecutive weeks.

Historical Context of Silver Price Milestones

To understand the significance of the $90 level, analysts often examine previous silver price peaks. The table below shows key historical highs and their catalysts:

This current rally differs fundamentally from past surges. Previously, inflation fears or specific market manipulations drove prices. Today, the catalyst stems from a sectoral rotation away from overvalued technology assets.

AI Valuation Risks: The Unconventional Driver of Safe-Haven Demand

The immediate catalyst for silver’s surge appears rooted in growing investor apprehension regarding artificial intelligence company valuations. Major AI-focused equity indices have experienced increased volatility throughout Q1 2025, following a series of critical developments:

• Regulatory Scrutiny: The European Union’s AI Act, fully implemented in January 2025, imposes stringent compliance costs on developers.
• Earnings Disappointments: Several leading AI firms reported slowing revenue growth against elevated expectations.
• Technical Limitations: Reports of diminishing returns in large language model scaling have raised questions about the sustainability of the AI investment thesis.

This uncertainty has prompted a broad-based reassessment of risk across asset classes. Consequently, portfolio managers are reducing exposure to high-beta technology stocks and reallocating to assets with negative correlation to equity volatility. Silver, with its dual characteristics as both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity, has become a preferred vehicle for this rotation. Notably, silver’s industrial demand profile, particularly in photovoltaic solar panels and electronics, provides a fundamental floor, while its historical role as a store of value offers upside during periods of financial stress.

The Mechanics of the Flight to Safety

The capital flow from AI equities to precious metals follows a clear pattern. First, volatility spikes in the Nasdaq AI Index trigger risk parity fund rebalancing. These systematic funds automatically sell volatile assets and buy stable ones. Second, discretionary macro hedge funds, anticipating further tech sector weakness, establish long positions in silver futures as a hedge. Finally, retail investors, through physically-backed silver ETFs like iShares Silver Trust (SLV), provide sustained buying pressure. This three-tiered demand creates a powerful upward price dynamic that technical resistance levels struggle to contain.

Broader Market Impacts and Macroeconomic Backdrop

The surge in silver occurs within a complex global macroeconomic environment. Central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, maintain a data-dependent stance on interest rates. While inflation has moderated from 2023 peaks, persistent services inflation and a weakening US Dollar Index have enhanced the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals. Moreover, geopolitical tensions continue to simmer, adding another layer of safe-haven demand. Central bank purchasing of gold, which reached record levels in 2024, has also created a positive spillover effect into the silver market, as these metals often move in correlation.

From a supply perspective, the silver market remains structurally tight. The Silver Institute’s 2024 report highlighted a fourth consecutive annual physical deficit, with demand outstripping mine supply by 142 million ounces. Primary silver mine production faces challenges from declining ore grades and rising energy costs. Meanwhile, industrial demand, especially from the green energy transition, continues its secular growth trend. This fundamental supply-demand imbalance provides a supportive backdrop for higher prices, irrespective of financial flows.

Expert Analysis and Forward-Looking Projections

Leading commodity analysts from institutions like Bloomberg Intelligence and the World Bank have updated their silver price forecast. Their consensus suggests a trading range of $85-$105 per ounce for the remainder of 2025, contingent on several factors:

• Federal Reserve Policy: A pivot to rate cuts would weaken the dollar and boost metals.
• AI Sector Performance: Continued volatility would sustain safe-haven inflows.
• Industrial Activity: Strong photovoltaic adoption supports base demand.

Dr. Elena Vargas, Head of Commodities Research at Global Markets Advisory, stated in a recent client note: “The convergence of financial hedging demand and robust physical fundamentals creates a rare bullish setup for silver. While prices may experience short-term consolidation, the path of least resistance appears higher, particularly if equity market corrections deepen.” This expert view underscores the unique confluence of drivers behind the current rally.

Conclusion

The silver price forecast has turned decisively bullish as XAG/USD breaches the historic $90 level. This movement stems not from traditional inflation fears but from a sophisticated capital rotation driven by AI valuation risks. The metal’s dual role as both an industrial input and a monetary asset positions it uniquely to benefit from current market dislocations. While volatility should be expected, the combination of tight physical supply, sustained industrial demand, and its newfound status as a hedge against technology sector volatility suggests the rally may have further room to run. Investors and analysts will closely monitor both equity market sentiment and central bank policy for cues on silver’s next directional move.

FAQs

Q1: What exactly caused silver to jump above $90?
The primary catalyst was a rapid shift of investment capital away from overheated artificial intelligence stocks into traditional safe-haven assets. Fears about AI company valuations, regulatory costs, and slowing growth triggered this sector rotation.

Q2: Is silver still a good investment after such a big price move?
Many analysts believe the fundamental picture remains supportive due to structural supply deficits and growing industrial demand from green technologies. However, as with any asset that has experienced a sharp rally, short-term pullbacks are possible and investors should consider their risk tolerance.

Q3: How does AI volatility affect a physical commodity like silver?
It affects it through financial market channels. When AI stocks fall, fund managers rebalance portfolios, often buying assets with low or negative correlation to tech equities. Silver, traded via futures and ETFs, receives these flows, which then impact the global spot price.

Q4: What’s the difference between the current silver rally and the 2011 peak?
The 2011 peak was driven by quantitative easing and debt ceiling fears post-financial crisis. The 2025 rally is primarily driven by sector-specific risk (AI) and a flight to safety within a still-growing economy, coupled with a persistent physical market deficit.

Q5: Could the price of silver go back down?
Yes, all markets are cyclical. A significant cooling of AI sector fears, a much stronger US dollar, or a sharp decline in industrial activity could apply downward pressure. The current bullish forecast depends on the continuation of the present macroeconomic and sectoral trends.

This post Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Soars Past $90 as AI Valuation Fears Trigger Stunning Safe-Haven Rush first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Why are global oil prices rising now and will Brent crude go from $72.48 to $80 per barrel in next jump? Global oil prices are rising sharply as the United States and Israel have launched a large-scale military operation against Iran. The attacks have brought the Strait of Hormuz into the conflict zone, creating concerns about potential disruptions to oil exports from the Middle East. Over 20 per cent of the world’s crude passes through this waterway. Traders and analysts are factoring in a risk premium. Brent crude settled at $72.48 per barrel, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $80.

Why Are Global Oil Prices Rising Now and Will Brent Crude Go from $72.48 to $80 Per Barrel in Next Jump?

Global oil prices are rising due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The United States and Israel have launched a military operation against Iran. This action has brought the Strait of Hormuz into the conflict zone, increasing the risk of disruptions to crude exports. Over 20 per cent of global oil passes through this waterway. Brent crude settled at $72.48 per barrel, and analysts say prices could reach $80 per barrel if supply disruptions occur. Traders are factoring in a “war premium” due to the current geopolitical situation.

Why Are Global Oil Prices Rising Now?

Oil prices are rising because of potential supply disruptions from the Middle East. The US and Israel’s military operation against Iran has increased uncertainty. Missile attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Iran’s naval forces create concerns about oil movement. The risk premium added by traders reflects fears of interruptions to global supply. Even limited military escalation can push prices higher, while strong demand and low inventories add pressure to the market.

Global Oil Price Rise Explained

Global oil prices are rising due to the US and Israel launching a massive military operation against Iran. The attack has brought the Strait of Hormuz into a conflict zone, which could disrupt crude exports from Middle Eastern countries.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Supply

Over 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Heavy missile attacks and US President Donald Trump’s statement on destroying Iran’s navy have raised concerns about movement of oil from the region.

Analysts expect a “war premium” to push oil prices higher due to coordinated attacks by the US and Israel. Tehran has launched retaliatory strikes, increasing risks of supply disruptions.

Brent Crude and Market Impact

Oil prices rose about 2 per cent on Friday. Brent crude settled at $72.48 per barrel. Barclays Bank stated Brent crude could rise to around $80 per barrel if there is any significant supply disruption. The bank added that the market is pricing in a risk premium due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.Barclays said that even if escalation does not immediately disrupt supply, a 1 million barrel per day outage could push Brent crude to $80. Traders are also monitoring US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which have not reached an agreement.

US-Iran Relations and Market Risk

US President Donald Trump expressed disappointment over negotiations with Iran and warned that force may be necessary. The large US military presence in the region increases the likelihood of future strikes, contributing to oil market uncertainty.

Barclays noted that if no supply disruption occurs, and Iran’s response is less severe than expected, oil prices could decline by $3 to $5 per barrel. However, the market is structurally tightening with low spare capacity, limited inventories, and strong demand, keeping prices under pressure.

Barclays said recent history may reduce the risk premium if tensions fade. Yet, the combination of military actions, tight supply, and strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz continues to create upside potential for oil prices.

Will Brent Crude Go from $72.48 to $80 Per Barrel in Next Jump?

Analysts at Barclays Bank suggest that Brent crude could reach $80 per barrel if there is a significant supply disruption. Even a one million barrel per day outage would push prices higher. Currently, Brent crude is at $72.48 per barrel. If tensions ease or Iran’s response is limited, the market could see a $3–$5 decline per barrel. However, structural market factors such as tight inventories and low spare capacity may support higher prices in the near term.

Analysts Insights and Market Outlook

Barclays and other market analysts note that the oil market is experiencing a risk premium due to geopolitical tensions. Analysts say that while escalation does not always lead to immediate supply disruption, even minor outages can create price spikes. The market is structurally tightening with low spare capacity, firm demand, and limited inventories. Traders are watching US-Iran negotiations and regional military actions to assess potential supply risks. Overall, geopolitical risks remain a major factor for oil prices in the coming weeks.

What Should Investors Do Now?

Investors should monitor global events and oil market trends closely. With Brent crude at $72.48 per barrel, they should prepare for possible volatility. Analysts suggest factoring in risk premiums and potential supply disruptions. If tensions escalate, prices may rise toward $80 per barrel. Conversely, if no disruption occurs, prices could fall by $3–$5. Investors should balance risk and exposure, follow official updates from the US, Iran, and Israel, and consider using hedging strategies or diversified energy investments to manage price fluctuations.

FAQs

Why are global oil prices rising now?
Global oil prices are rising due to US-Israel attacks on Iran and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are factoring in a risk premium for potential supply disruptions.

Will Brent crude reach $80 per barrel soon?
Brent crude could reach $80 per barrel if supply from the Middle East is disrupted. Analysts note the risk premium is influenced by geopolitical tensions and tight oil inventories.

The article covers the following subjects:

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 67.30 with a target of 55.00–50.50. A sell signal: the price holds below 67.30. Stop Loss: above 67.30, Take Profit: 55.00–50.50.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 67.30 will allow the asset to continue rising to the levels of 77.50–87.00. A buy signal: the level of 67.30 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 67.30, Take Profit: 77.50–87.00.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 67.30 with a target of 55.00–50.50.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above the level of 67.30 will allow the asset to continue rising to the levels of 77.50–87.00.

Analysis

A descending correction appears to continue forming as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) developing as its part. On the daily time frame, a bullish correction appears to have formed as the fourth wave iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C has started developing. The third wave of smaller degree (iii) of v of C has presumably been completed on the H4 time frame. The fourth wave (iv) of v has finished forming as a local correction. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to drop to 55.00–50.50 within wave (v) of v. The level of 67.30 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the price to continue rising to the levels of 77.50–87.00.

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This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode