– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR 5-Week Best on Iran Uncertainty

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) surged to five-week highs near 1.1725 after a temporary Iran ceasefire boosted risk appetite and weakened the dollar.

However, with oil prices rebounding and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, markets remain cautious, limiting confidence in a sustained EUR/USD breakout.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Iran ceasefire, but no certainty

Nordea still expects that the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to above 1.20 by the end of 2026 amid weaker US fundamentals.

Scotiabank is backing EUR/USD gains to 1.22 at the end of the year.

During the week, geo-political developments dominate with the mid-week announcement of a cease-fire between the US and Iran.

There was, however, still a high degree of uncertainty and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed with oil prices regaining ground after a sharp initial decline as Brent traded well above $90 p/b.

The dollar lost ground as energy prices declined sharply and risk appetite strengthened. Overall, EUR/USD rallied strongly to 5-week highs around 1.1725.

The US inflation data was close to expectations with the headline figure jumping to 3.3% from 2.4% with the core rate at 2.6% from 2.5%.

Markets remained sceptical that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates.

Scotiabank commented; “Our call remains that the Fed will cut rates by 50bps over the next 12 months in response to slowing growth momentum. Expectations that other central banks may tighten policy could retrench if a sustained decline in energy prices unfolds but the USD is still likely to soften somewhat as market risk premia re-adjust.”

It added; “Our fair value model for the DXY based purely on front-end spreads suggests the index is significantly (about one standard deviation) overvalued currently.”

Nordea commented; “We note that even amidst bouts of flight-to-safety, the performance of the USD has been far from stellar, and the conflict in the Middle East has not at least bolstered the confidence towards the dollar in the medium term. We thus continue to expect a clearly higher EUR/USD towards the end of our forecast horizon.”

ECB policy will also be a key element.

At this stage, Danske expects the ECB will leave rates on hold at 2.0% this year. It did, however, add; “Due to ongoing uncertainty about the Iran war, we do not see a hold at the April meeting as a done deal yet.”

According to Nordea there will be pressure for a tighter policy; “both anecdotal and survey-based data have started to point to price pressures beyond energy prices, adding to the pre-war price pressures that existed already in many raw materials and components.”

It added; “We now expect the ECB to hike rates four times by 25bp, starting in June. While the ceasefire news immediately tilted the risks to our new ECB baseline to the downside, the outlook remains fraught with uncertainty, while signs of broader price pressures have already started to emerge.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

I wrote on 29th March that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair. This gave a loss of 0.40%.

2. Long of the 10Y US Treasury Yield Future. This gave a loss of 2.99%.

That week’s overall loss of 3.39% is 1.70% per asset.

A summary of last week’s most important data in the market:

1. US CPI – the annualized rate came in at 3.3%, a tick below the widely expected 3.4%.

2. US ISM Services PMI – this was just a tiny bit worse than expected.

3. US Core PCE Price Index – as expected.

4. US Final GDP – revised downwards again, from a quarterly rate of 0.7% to 0.5%.

5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes – there were no real surprises, but the minutes tended to reinforce generally hawkish sentiment on rates.

6. RBNZ Policy Meeting – no surprises.

7. Canada Unemployment Rate – just a tick better than expected, at 6.7%.

Last week’s economic data releases were much less influential upon the markets than the US/Iran ceasefire was. The mere fact that the USA and Iran are talking, despite the enormous gaps in their continued understanding of the terms of the ceasefire, let alone between their respective red lines, has produced a more risk-on market environment, especially concerning energy prices. As the talks have concluded with a generally downbeat reading of a USA very firm on certain demands and an equally firm Iran refusing to grant them – wishing to maintain both nuclear enrichment and to control, formally, passage through the Strait of Hormuz – we can probably expect markets to open in a more risk-averse mood, especially in stock markets and in energies. VP Vance departing stated “Bad news… the Iranian have decided not to accept our terms.”

Prediction markets generally think that this war will end within the next few weeks with some kind of formal agreement between the USA and Iran. This suggests that the crowd might be overly optimistic, paving the way for a potential surprise to the downside if hostilities suddenly resume. It remains very difficult to see how the nuclear and Hormuz issues, let alone Lebanon, can be resolved in a way all parties would find saleable to their constituencies.

The Week Ahead: 13th – 17th April

The middle east war is likely to remain more influential that any economic data releases which are scheduled over the coming week, as we approach the deadline for the expiry of the current two-week ceasefire and await to see whether it will be extended or something else will be agreed.

The coming week’s most important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US PPI

2. UK GDP

3. Australia Unemployment Rate

Monthly Forecast April 2026

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

For the month of April, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value.

Weekly Forecast 13th April 2026

Last week saw three currency crosses with excessive volatility, so I made the following forecasts for the coming week:

• AUD/JPY short

• NZD/JPY short

• NZD/CAD short

The Australian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the US Dollar was the weakest.

Next week’s volatility is likely to decline a bit. However, the ongoing war in the Middle East (subject to the current ceasefire) retains the ability to roil the market if there are any surprises. This could generate volatility in the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Canadian Dollar, not to mention stock markets.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Technical Analysis

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

Key Support and Resistance Levels

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar printed a large bearish candlestick, with no significant lower wick, and a close that was very near to the low of its range. These are bearish signs. However, we have mixed long-term trends, with the 3-month trend bullish and the 6-month trend bearish. Looking at the price chart below, we can see that the greenback is really within a long-term consolidation phase, so we cannot really expect much of a trend in the US Dollar here.

I think the greenback will be more driven by the progress in the current Middle East ceasefire – if war breaks out again, it will likely boost the Dollar, not so much as a haven but more as an effect of the inflationary shock of the rising energy prices. If the ceasefire becomes something more durable, conversely, it will probably be bearish for the US Dollar.

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair was at the heart of the Forex market again last week, with the Aussie gaining by more than any other major currency, while the US Dollar was the biggest lower. There has been a very long-term bullish trend in the Aussie, which seemed to have decoupled from risk sentiment to some extent, but we see the Aussie getting bid hard as the world enjoys the current ceasefire in the Middle East war, mostly hoping that this will somehow lead to a more durable peace agreement between the USA and Iran, although it is hard to see how the gaps can be bridged in the negotiations.

Looking technically at the weekly price chart below, we see that we saw a strong rise last week that ran out of momentum as it approached the major resistance level, confluent with a round number, at $0.7200. This looks a bit overbought, and we might get a short trade opportunity here if we continue to see failure near or at $0.7200, especially if sentiment turns more downbeat on the prospects for the ceasefire after talks between the USA and Iran in Pakistan just ended with no agreement.

This pair will likely be at the heart of market volatility, which can be great for day traders, and follow sentiment on the Middle East and the second order effect of a commodity price shock, both up and down.

The Aussie is also notably overbought against the Japanese Yen.

I won’t be trading in this currency pair yet, but day traders might want to look for shorts in this currency pair if we see a bearish reversal price action set up at $0.7200.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair lost a little ground last week, two weeks after finally making the long-anticipated bullish breakout beyond the big round number at ¥160. The problem is not Yen weakness, which can be taken for granted over the long-term it seems. The problem for progress higher by this currency pair is the renewed weakness in the US Dollar now that there is a ceasefire in the Middle East war, because if there is a longer-term agreement it would remove some inflationary pressure from the Fed through lower energy prices.

I am happy to be long of this currency pair, although I would be more comfortable in my long trade if the price was established comfortably above ¥160.

If we do not see the price up there soon, I fear that we might have a bit of a bearish head and shoulders chart pattern which might complete below ¥157.50.

More cautious traders might want to wait for a daily (New York) close above ¥160 before entering a new long trade.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

Brent Crude Oil Futures

Brent Crude Oil gapped lower quite dramatically early last week following President Trump’s announcement of a 2-week ceasefire in the war with Iran, which had been looking likely to escalate into all-out war on economic targets, including energy targets. This was pushing the price of crude oil higher, but we really saw the price drop as investors dare to hope to some kind of peaceful compromise to end the crisis, although it is very hard to imagine how this would be agreed.

It can be said that the price is just consolidating and not falling further.

With the talks between an Iranian delegation and US Vice-President Vance breaking down a few hours ago in Pakistan with both sides expressing disappointment, we might start to see the price of crude oil look more bullish as the new week opens, as analysts might begin to see increasing risk of the ceasefire collapsing soon, or at least an increasing chance that no agreement will be forthcoming before the current ceasefire expires on 21st April.

Although I find some kind of bullish price action is likely over the coming days, I will only want to be long of Crude Oil again if we get a new long-term high in the closing end of day price.

If you are going long, Brent will likely be the better vehicle than WTI, as it is more exposed to events in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Daily Price Chart

Bottom Line

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair following a daily (New York) close above ¥160.

2. Long of Brent Crude Futures in the unlikely event we get a daily close above $112.50.

Ready to trade our Forex weekly forecast? Check out our list of the top 10 Forex brokers.

BitcoinWorld

EUR/GBP Forecast: Critical Support from Converging SMAs Faces Formidable 0.8750 Resistance

The EUR/GBP currency pair currently demonstrates a technically significant configuration, with converging simple moving averages providing underlying support while formidable resistance caps gains below the 0.8750 psychological level. This critical juncture emerges as European and British economic policies diverge, creating a complex trading environment for currency analysts and institutional investors. Market participants now closely monitor whether technical support will hold against fundamental headwinds, potentially determining the cross’s directional bias for the coming trading sessions.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: The SMA Convergence Phenomenon

Technical analysts observe a notable convergence of multiple simple moving averages on the EUR/GBP daily chart. Specifically, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs have compressed within a historically narrow range, typically indicating reduced volatility and potential energy accumulation for a significant directional move. This convergence pattern often precedes substantial breakouts in currency markets. Consequently, traders interpret this compression as a coiled spring effect, where the pair builds energy before selecting a definitive trend direction.

Historical data reveals similar SMA convergence patterns preceded the EUR/GBP’s 2023 rally from 0.8500 to 0.8900. Currently, the 50-day SMA provides immediate dynamic support around 0.8680, while the 200-day SMA offers stronger foundational support near 0.8650. These technical levels create a multi-layered support zone that has defended against three separate bearish attempts during the past month. Market technicians emphasize that sustained trading above these converged averages would signal underlying strength, potentially enabling a challenge of higher resistance levels.

The 0.8750 Resistance Barrier: A Psychological and Technical Hurdle

The 0.8750 level represents more than just a numerical price point for the EUR/GBP pair. This resistance zone combines psychological significance with technical validation from previous market behavior. During the past six months, the cross has tested this level on four separate occasions, each time encountering substantial selling pressure that reversed gains. This repeated rejection establishes 0.8750 as a formidable technical ceiling that requires significant fundamental catalysts to overcome.

Market microstructure analysis reveals increased limit sell orders clustered around 0.8740-0.8760, creating an order book imbalance that reinforces this resistance zone. Additionally, options market data shows elevated implied volatility for strikes at 0.8750, indicating traders’ expectations for price containment below this level. The resistance confluence includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2024 decline, further strengthening its technical significance. Breaking above this barrier would require either substantial Euro strength or pronounced Pound weakness, supported by convincing volume expansion.

Fundamental Drivers: Diverging European and British Economic Policies

Beyond technical patterns, fundamental factors increasingly influence the EUR/GBP exchange rate trajectory. The European Central Bank maintains a cautiously dovish stance despite persistent inflation concerns, while the Bank of England confronts more pronounced stagflation risks. This policy divergence creates opposing forces on the currency pair. European economic indicators show modest improvement in manufacturing PMIs, yet consumer confidence remains subdued amid energy price volatility.

Conversely, British economic data reveals stronger-than-expected services sector activity but concerning retail sales contraction. This mixed fundamental backdrop explains the EUR/GBP’s recent range-bound behavior between 0.8650 and 0.8750. Political developments further complicate the outlook, with European parliamentary elections approaching and British fiscal policy announcements pending. Currency strategists note that interest rate differential expectations continue favoring the Pound, creating underlying headwinds for EUR/GBP appreciation despite technical support structures.

Historical Context and Comparative Analysis

Examining historical EUR/GBP behavior during similar technical configurations provides valuable context for current market conditions. The table below illustrates three previous instances of SMA convergence and subsequent price action:

This historical analysis reveals that SMA convergence periods typically resolve within 4-8 weeks, with the direction determined by whichever fundamental catalyst emerges first. The current convergence appears most similar to the Q4 2023 pattern, suggesting potential for resolution within the coming month. Market participants monitor several key catalysts that could trigger the next directional move, including:

• Central bank communications: Upcoming ECB and BoE meeting minutes
• Inflation data: Eurozone and UK CPI releases scheduled for next week
• Political developments: European election polls and UK fiscal announcements
• Energy markets: Natural gas price fluctuations affecting both economies differently

Risk Assessment and Trading Implications

Professional traders approach the current EUR/GBP configuration with measured positioning, recognizing both opportunity and risk. The converging SMAs provide clearly defined support levels for potential long entries, with logical stop-loss placements below the 200-day average. However, the formidable 0.8750 resistance necessitates cautious profit-taking approaches for bullish positions. Risk-reward ratios currently favor range-trading strategies over directional bets until either support or resistance breaks convincingly.

Options market positioning reveals increased demand for strangle strategies, indicating expectations for heightened volatility following the current compression period. Institutional flow data shows balanced positioning between Euro and Pound exposures, suggesting uncertainty about the eventual breakout direction. Market technicians emphasize that a daily close above 0.8750 with expanding volume would invalidate the resistance thesis, potentially opening a path toward 0.8800. Conversely, a breakdown below the SMA confluence around 0.8650 would signal technical deterioration, targeting the 0.8600 psychological support level.

Expert Perspectives on the EUR/GBP Outlook

Leading currency analysts offer nuanced views on the EUR/GBP technical setup. Jane Wilson, Chief Currency Strategist at Global Forex Advisors, notes: “The SMA convergence provides meaningful support, but fundamental divergences between European and British economies create conflicting signals. We recommend patience until either technical level breaks with conviction.” Her assessment reflects the prevailing cautious sentiment among institutional traders.

Michael Chen, Head of Quantitative Research at EuroCapital Markets, adds: “Our statistical models show a 68% probability of range-bound trading between 0.8650 and 0.8750 over the next two weeks. However, volatility expectations increase substantially beyond that timeframe as seasonal liquidity patterns shift.” This quantitative perspective aligns with the technical compression narrative, suggesting impending directional resolution.

Conclusion

The EUR/GBP forecast presents a classic technical dilemma, with converging simple moving averages providing underlying support against the formidable 0.8750 resistance barrier. This configuration reflects broader market uncertainty about European and British economic trajectories. While technical patterns suggest potential for upward resolution, fundamental headwinds and historical resistance create substantial obstacles. Traders should monitor both technical levels and upcoming economic releases, particularly inflation data and central bank communications, which will likely determine whether support holds or resistance breaks. The current EUR/GBP setup exemplifies how technical and fundamental analysis must integrate for accurate currency forecasting in complex market environments.

FAQs

Q1: What does SMA convergence mean for the EUR/GBP pair?
SMA convergence occurs when multiple simple moving averages compress within a narrow price range, typically indicating reduced volatility and potential energy accumulation for a significant directional move. For EUR/GBP, this suggests the pair may be preparing for a substantial breakout.

Q2: Why is the 0.8750 level particularly significant resistance?
The 0.8750 level combines psychological importance with technical validation, having rejected price advances on multiple recent occasions. It also aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and hosts concentrated sell orders in the market microstructure.

Q3: How do fundamental factors currently affect EUR/GBP?
Diverging central bank policies between the ECB and BoE create opposing forces, with European cautiousness contrasting against British stagflation concerns. Economic data releases and political developments further influence the cross’s direction.

Q4: What historical patterns resemble the current EUR/GBP setup?
The Q4 2023 period showed similar SMA convergence around 0.8650-0.8680, which resolved with a rally following Brexit deal clarifications. This suggests potential for directional resolution within 4-8 weeks.

Q5: What trading strategies suit the current EUR/GBP configuration?
Range-trading approaches between 0.8650 support and 0.8750 resistance offer favorable risk-reward profiles currently. Breakout strategies with confirmation above resistance or below support may become appropriate once either level breaks with convincing volume.

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