Created on January 21, 2026

The US dollar has been very noisy against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as we see the JGB markets show signs of stress.

The US dollar has been very noisy against the Japanese yen during the bulk of the Tuesday trading session, as we continue to see a lot of noisy action. That being said, you should also pay close attention to the fact that the Japanese bond market is showing extreme stress and volatility, so this is going to make the Japanese yen very difficult to get a handle on in the short term.

That being said, longer term, we certainly have a lot of upward pressure at this point with the 158 yen level being a bit of a magnet, and I think the 160 yen level being a bit of a target. Short-term pullbacks would open up the possibility of buying opportunities with the 156 yen level offering support at the 50-day EMA.

The 50-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that I think a lot of people will continue to look at as a potential trend line. To the upside, I do think that we could eventually go looking to the 162 yen level after we get above 160 yen, but I think that would take a certain amount of momentum.

The Carry Trade Is Still Alive

Keep in mind that the carry trade is still very much alive, and of course, the US dollar does pay you to hold it against the Japanese yen despite the fact that yields are rising in Japan, because that’s a sign of stress.

That will be very volatile, and I think at this point in time, the market is trying to tell Japan you are not going to be able to raise rates too much, and therefore, the Bank of Japan may find itself acquiescing. There is the possibility of intervention, but intervention just gets bought into before it’s all said and done, as we have seen multiple times.

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Created on January 21, 2026

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish Technical Correction
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1590 – 1.1530 – 1.1440
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1800 – 1.1860 – 1.1920

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1650 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1560.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1880.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

For two consecutive sessions, the EUR/USD pair has been rebounding from the support level of 1.1576 – the pair’s lowest level in two months. Gains extended to the resistance level of 1.1768, and the price is currently stabilizing around 1.1730 at the time of writing. According to performance on reliable trading platforms, the “Greenland Deal” continues to dominate the narrative for the second straight day, as traders begin to fear this is more than just a passing headline.

Generally, financial markets perceive heightened risks associated with the confrontation between the United States and Europe over the Greenland issue. As of Tuesday, Trump did not appear willing to back down from his stance on annexing Greenland to the United States, meaning that the UK and the EU will face a 10% tariff starting February 1st.

According to Forex market activity, the U.S. Dollar tends to decline as investors realize the negative economic impact of tariffs, which are largely borne by American consumers. Conversely, the Euro tends to benefit as a “large” and more liquid alternative to the U.S. Dollar, even if it is the party directly hit by Trump’s tariffs.

In general, Trump’s recent statements represented a new escalation in the Greenland dispute and confirmed the deterioration in relations between the United States and the European Union, keeping financial markets on edge. However, the euro avoided sustained losses. Its strong inverse relationship with the US dollar (USD) provided some protection, as the dollar came under pressure following Trump’s latest tariff threat.

EUR/USD Opportunities for a Bearish Breakout

The EUR/USD pair’s upward trend, as seen on the daily chart, could gain positive momentum if bulls manage to push the currency above the psychological resistance level of 1.1800. Recent gains have pushed the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards 57, away from the neutral line, suggesting bullish momentum towards stronger upward levels if investor sentiment improves amid the recent US-EU dispute over the Greenland trade deal. Technically, the MACD indicator is also trending upwards, awaiting further positive momentum.

A EUR/USD a bearish scenario on the daily chart would require bears to push the currency back towards the support levels of 1.1655 and 1.1580, respectively. The EUR/USD’s direction today will be influenced first by statements from European Central Bank President Lagarde at 9:30 AM Egypt time. Then, most importantly, statements from US President Trump at 3:30 PM Egypt time.

Trading Advice:

We advise waiting for the EUR/USD to break through the 1.1800 resistance level before considering selling again. However, never take risks, no matter how strong the available currency trading opportunities may seem.

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The GBPJPY pair ended its last bullish rally by recording the target at 213.45, to form a strong obstacle against the attempts of resuming the bullish trend, which forces it to activate with the stochastic negativity by forming corrective rebound, to notice testing the bullish channel’s support at 212.30.

Reminding you that the repeated rise above 212.00 level which represents %2.380 Fibonacci extension level supports the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, to expect targeting 213.00 level, to attempt to surpass the mentioned obstacle, while declining below 212.00 and providing a negative close will confirm its surrender to the dominance of the bearish corrective bias, to expect suffering some losses by reaching 211.45 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 212.00 and 213.45

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair ended its last bullish rally by recording the target at 213.45, to form a strong obstacle against the attempts of resuming the bullish trend, which forces it to activate with the stochastic negativity by forming corrective rebound, to notice testing the bullish channel’s support at 212.30.

Reminding you that the repeated rise above 212.00 level which represents %2.380 Fibonacci extension level supports the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, to expect targeting 213.00 level, to attempt to surpass the mentioned obstacle, while declining below 212.00 and providing a negative close will confirm its surrender to the dominance of the bearish corrective bias, to expect suffering some losses by reaching 211.45 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 212.00 and 213.45

Trend forecast: Bullish

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro had rallied against the US Dollar, but the British Pound has given back most of the gains already. So, with that being the case, I think you have to look at this as a situation where the 1.35 level continues to be a major barrier that just can’t be broken. If we do break above there, it’s really not until we break above 1.3550 that you start to talk about a move to the upside. This to me looks like a drop, a bounce, and perhaps a rollover. We’ll just have to wait and see. We did get claimant count change numbers earlier in the session, but it was slightly more negative, not really enough to affect the currency market, though in my estimation, directly.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

You can see what the strength of the Euro has done to the Euro against the British Pound. I still think this is a market that rolls over, but now we have to reset, and we’ll have to keep an eye on that 0.8750 level because this is an area that’s been important multiple times. If we do start to see the Euro roll over against the dollar, we’ll have to wait, but I think that probably will have an influence here as well.

So, with all of that being said, I like fading signs of exhaustion. We could send this market down to the 200-day EMA again, but if we clear 0.8750, I probably step back from this pair for a while.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.