– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Loses Momentum as BoE Outlook Unchanged

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped back on Thursday after an initial lift from stronger-than-expected UK growth data faded, leaving investors unconvinced that the rebound marked a turning point for the British economy.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3415, drifting lower after an early uptick following the UK’s GDP release.

The Pound briefly found support after data from the Office for National Statistics showed the UK economy expanded by 0.3% month-on-month in November, reversing October’s 0.1% contraction and beating expectations for a modest 0.1% rise.

However, the upbeat headline failed to generate lasting momentum. November’s expansion marked the first month of growth since June and was widely viewed by markets as a technical rebound rather than evidence of renewed economic strength.

Confidence was further tempered by concerns over the composition of the growth. A sizeable portion of the increase was driven by a sharp 25.5% surge in car manufacturing, as Jaguar Land Rover ramped up output following disruption caused by a cyber-attack earlier in the year.

As these caveats sank in, Sterling gave back its initial gains and slipped back into a softer trading range.

The US Dollar, meanwhile, traded without strong direction as improving global risk appetite reduced demand for traditional safe havens. A brighter market mood followed signs of easing tensions in the Middle East after Iran paused planned executions linked to recent protests, prompting the US to dial back the prospect of military action.

Despite the shift towards a more positive risk backdrop, the Dollar managed to hold its ground. A mild uptick in US Treasury yields helped underpin the currency, limiting losses even as investors tentatively rotated into higher-risk assets.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Speakers and US Output in Focus

Looking ahead to Friday, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate may be influenced by the release of US industrial production data. Output is forecast to have risen by just 0.1% in December, a slowdown that could place modest pressure on the Dollar if confirmed.

Later in the session, comments from Federal Reserve policymakers Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson will be closely watched. Both are viewed as leaning dovish, and any remarks reinforcing expectations of looser monetary policy could weigh on the US currency.

With no major UK economic releases scheduled, Sterling may continue to take its cues from broader market sentiment. A sustained improvement in risk appetite could support the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound, while renewed caution would be more likely to favour the US Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on January 15, 2026

The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese Yen on Wednesday, but continues to see a lot of noise. Nonetheless, this is a longer-term uptrend.

The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese Yen during trading on Wednesday, but then gave back gains as we pulled back toward the 158 yen level. The 158 yen level is an area that has been significant resistance in the past, so it will be interesting to see whether or not it holds up as support.

There is a lot of concern out there about the United States possibly attacking Iran, but we have been down this road numerous times, so I don’t really know what changes longer-term structurally. As a result, if we do bounce from here, I am very interested in buying the US dollar.

I have no interest in shorting this market. I don’t care what it did during the trading session on Wednesday; it doesn’t change reality. The reality is that we have broken above a major resistance area and now we are testing it.

Support Levels and Long-Term Targets

Whether or not it holds remains to be seen, but I think the 50-day EMA underneath is going to be a significant support level as well. With all of that, I believe you have a situation where buyers are going to be looking to take advantage of value when they can get it and possibly try to push this market to the 160 yen level.

160 is an area that the Bank of Japan intervened in a couple of years ago. Ultimately, as long as the destruction of the Japanese Yen is somewhat subtle and slow-moving, I think we probably have a situation where the Bank of Japan stays out of it.

Structural technical analysis dictates that we could be looking at a 400 pip move from the breakout point at 158 yen, which leads me to believe we could go to 162 yen. I think, given enough time, that is exactly what happens, but we may get a little bit of noise here with some geopolitical issues.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Copper price failed to settle for long time above $5.9700 barrier, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, to reach $5.8800 again, which increases the chances of activating temporary negative corrective trading, facing new bearish pressures that will force it to decline towards $5.6000 reaching extra support at $5.5100.

While the price success in surpassing the barrier and holding above it will reinforce it to record new historical gains by its rally towards $6.1200 and $6.2050.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7500 and $6.000

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

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