– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Near Breakout, But Risks Remain

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) climbed to three-month highs after rebounding from support in the low-1.34s, but the pair now faces stiff resistance as trading conditions thin and the dollar attempts to stabilise.

The next move will determine whether sterling can build momentum into the new year.

GBP/USD Forecasts: 3-Month Highs

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate found support below 1.3420 on Monday and rebounded strongly to above 1.3500 amid a firm Pound performance and dollar setback.

GBP/USD hit 3-month highs near 1.3570 before consolidation just below 1.3550 with markets still assessing whether there is scope for a decisive breakout.

According to UoB; “Although upward momentum has not increased significantly, GBP could rise to 1.3590. Currently, the odds of a continued rise above this level are not high.”

Scotiabank added; “Risk reversals are little changed, offering little in terms of sentiment-driven movement. We are neutral awaiting a break of the two-week range roughly bound between 1.34 and the mid1.35s.”

Overall risk appetite has held steady with the UK FTSE 100 index posting a fresh record high while there were further gains for precious metals and commodities.

The Pound will gain net support if risk appetite holds firm.

The dollar failed to gain sustained support from geo-political considerations, but there is a high degree of uncertainty over both Venezuela and the wider regional considerations.

ING is not convinced that there will be sustained dollar losses; “Despite the quick unwinding of safe-haven USD demand yesterday, we remain modestly biased to a stronger dollar in the near term. Seasonality is positive in January, and markets’ sanguine stance on geopolitics leaves risk assets and high-beta currencies exposed to re-escalations, both in Latam and potentially in Greenland.

Danske Bank also preached some caution; “Global markets generally performed well on Monday, but President Trump’s threats against Colombia and Mexico, along with renewed talk of annexing Greenland, underscore that geopolitical tensions remain elevated as the new year begins.”

The US ISM manufacturing index edged lower to 47.9 for December from 48.2 previously. This was slightly below consensus forecasts and the sector has been in contraction territory for the last 8 months which hampered the dollar.

Capital Economics commented; “The modest decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in December confirms that the sector was struggling for momentum around the turn of the year, but we doubt that this will be enough to prevent overall GDP from expanding at a solid pace in the coming quarters.”

The dollar could gain some net support if the overall US economy holds firm, but the global perspective will also be important.

MUFG commented; “Evidence of strengthening global growth momentum is a supportive factor for our forecast for the US dollar to weaken further in 2026 even as US economic growth is expected to pick-up as well during the first half of this year driven by stimulus from President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• The USD/JPY forecast tilts to the downside as BoJ-Fed divergence favors yen.
• Risk-off sentiment strengthens yen but limits gains amid dollar’s own haven appeal.
• Today’s US ADP jobs report is crucial to watch, along with the US ISM PMI and JOLTS data.

The USD/JPY remains under mild pressure as the Japanese yen continues to find support from changing policy expectations and a weaker US dollar backdrop. Momentum has obviously slowed, indicating growing uncertainty over the next directional move, even though the pair is still trading at high levels around the mid-156 area. The market is increasingly focused on the widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan, which is cautiously tightening, and the Federal Reserve, which is edging closer to an easing cycle.

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The yen’s recent resilience is largely driven by the growing acceptance that the BoJ’s long-awaited normalization process is not a one-off move. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s most recent remarks reaffirmed the likelihood of further interest rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. Rising wages, persistent pressure on service sector prices, and tighter labor conditions strengthen the argument for gradual tightening. This change has already caused yields on Japanese government bonds to reach multi-decade highs, reducing one of the main causes of yen weakness and closing the yield gap with the US.

At the same time, investors remain cautious about pushing the yen too aggressively higher. Uncertainty around Japan’s fiscal outlook, highlighted by the approval of a record budget, and questions over the exact timing and pace of future BoJ hikes continue to temper bullish conviction. As a result, USD/JPY has avoided a sharp sell-off and instead is grinding lower in a controlled manner.

Geopolitical risks add another level of complexity. The demand for safe havens has been boosted by growing tensions associated with Venezuela and other global flashpoints. However, the dollar’s inflows during periods of high US yields have lessened the yen’s influence. Even so, upside movements are still constrained, especially in the upper 150s, by the possibility of verbal intervention from Japanese authorities.

On the US side, the dollar is struggling to find sustained support. Markets are increasingly pricing in further Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, with policymakers stressing the need to stay data-dependent as inflation cools and labour market conditions soften. This week’s run of US data, including ADP employment figures, ISM Services PMI, and JOLTS, may influence short-term moves, but the main event remains Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. A weaker-than-expected jobs reading would likely reinforce expectations of a dovish Fed and put renewed downside pressure on USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast: Consolidating Near Key MAs

The USD/JPY 4-hour chart shows consolidation between 20- and 50-period MAs, while the confluence of 100- and 200-period MAs supports the pair’s upside bias. The RSI also remains flat under the 50.0 level, suggesting no clear bias in the short term.

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A break above the 20-period MA at 156.60 could trigger a bullish breakout and look to test 157.30 ahead of 157.75. On the other hand, moving below the 200-period MA at 156.10 could prompt the pair to test the 155.55 support level ahead of 155.00.

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