– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: BoE Comments and JOLTS Data in Focus

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East and stronger-than-expected US data lifted the safe-haven ‘Greenback’.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3421, down more than 0.2% on the day.

The safe-haven US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Monday as a deterioration in market sentiment drove investors towards safer assets.

The latest bout of risk aversion followed an exchange of strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend. Iran subsequently accused the US and Israel of breaching the ceasefire agreement and stated that it would withdraw from peace talks until Israel halted its attacks on Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the currency also drew support from upbeat US economic data. The latest ISM manufacturing PMI showed that factory activity accelerated more sharply than expected in May, with the index rising from 52.7 to 54, beating forecasts of 53.

Meanwhile, the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound (GBP) weakened against its safer peers as the market mood soured.

Sterling had initially edged higher in the morning after the UK’s latest manufacturing PMI showed activity climbing to a four-year high in May. The survey also reported rising input price inflation, which fuelled expectations for further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes.

While this may have helped to limit the Pound’s losses, domestic political uncertainty may have dented GBP. On Monday, the government published documents relating to the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, with the UK’s febrile political atmosphere potentially unnerving investors.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Could BoE Comments Boost Sterling?

Looking ahead, UK economic data is limited on Tuesday. However, BoE policymaker Megan Greene is due to speak in the afternoon. As Greene is considered one of the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Sterling could strengthen if she argues in favour of higher interest rates.

Tuesday will also see the publication of the latest US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The data is expected to show a marginal decline in job openings in April, which may have only a muted impact on the US Dollar. However, any surprises could spark sharper movement.

Elsewhere, developments in the Middle East could inject volatility into GBP/USD by influencing risk appetite. Hopes of peace may lift market sentiment and potentially support the Pound, while a fresh escalation in tensions would likely sour the mood and bolster the safe-haven US Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

2026.06.01 2026.06.01
Yen Under Pressure Near Key Intervention Threshold. Forecast as of 01.06.2026

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting, combined with the government’s currency interventions, has tempered USD/JPY bulls twice. Will history repeat itself in June? Perhaps, if the BoJ refrains from raising rates. Let’s analyze the situation and make a trading plan.

Major Takeaways

• Disappointment with the BoJ will trigger a surge in USD/JPY quotes.
• The risk of currency interventions may increase.
• The yen’s position is better than it was a month ago.
• A break above 160 followed by a pullback below that level is a reason to sell the USD/JPY pair.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen

If something happens once, it may never happen again. However, if it happens twice, it is bound to happen a third time. Just as in 2024, Japan intervened in the Forex market at the end of April and beginning of May, immediately following the BoJ meeting and the resulting decline in the yen. The central bank disappointed, and the government was forced to intervene to stop USD/JPY bulls. As the June Board of Governors meeting approaches, there is a sense of déjà vu.

The futures market indicates a 75% probability of an overnight rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s first summer meeting. However, the latest data on slowing inflation could allow doves to convince the rest of the BoJ officials of the need to continue the pause in the monetary tightening cycle. If that happens, the USD/JPY pair will likely surge above the psychologically important 160 level.

Speculative Positions on Japanese Yen

Source: Bloomberg.

Speculators are counting on this scenario. Hedge funds and asset managers have increased their net short positions in the yen to their highest levels in nearly two years, despite all the government’s warnings. As a result, Satsuki Katayama has resumed verbal interventions. The finance minister stated that the authorities were ready to take decisive action if they observed increased volatility or signs of speculative activity in the Forex market.

At the turn of April and May, Japan spent ¥11.7 trillion on currency interventions. The amount exceeded the market estimate of ¥10 trillion and sparked rumors that there may have been more than two interventions within a short period. If so, they could resume before the USD/JPY pair reaches the 160 level.

USD/JPY Rate and Interventions on Forex

Source: Bloomberg.

In reality, currency interventions are merely a way to buy time, not a turning point. Although the yen is currently trading at the same levels as in early May, the fundamental outlook is far more favorable for it now than it was then. The conflict in the Middle East is about to end, and oil prices will likely fall, benefiting Japan—a net importer of crude oil—more than the US. At the same time, the Fed will have less reason to raise the federal funds rate, and demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset may decline.

All of this, combined with excessively inflated speculative positions on the yen, allows Eurizon SLJ Capital to forecast that the upward trend in USD/JPY quotes will reverse. It is quite possible that the authorities will not need to buy more time, especially if the Bank of Japan meets expectations and raises the overnight rate to 1% in June.

Weekly USDJPY Trading Plan

While in April and May I suggested buying the USD/JPY pair following currency interventions, such interventions could now reverse the uptrend. If the price pierces the 160 level, and a sharp downward move follows, short positions can be considered.

This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

The EURJPY pair remains affected by the positivity of the main indicators, which forces it to delay the bearish correction trend, to notice its fluctuating near 185.80 level, attempting to find an exit for recording more gains in the near and medium period.

The continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators and the stability above the extra support at 184.80, we recommend waiting for achieving the required breach to ease the mission of recording extra gains by its rally towards 186.25 and 186.65.

The expected trading range for today is between 185.20 and 186.65

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair returned to form some bullish waves, affected by forming an extra strong support at 213.30 level, to renew the pressure on 214.50 barrier, which represents %66.8 Fibonacci correction level.

The attempt of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, as stochastic approaches 80 level might ease the mission of surpassing the current barrier, announcing its readiness to record extra gains by its rally towards 214.95 and 215.25, while the failure of the breach will force it to provide mixed unstable trading with a new chance for the decline towards 213.30.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.00 and 215.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair returned to form some bullish waves, affected by forming an extra strong support at 213.30 level, to renew the pressure on 214.50 barrier, which represents %66.8 Fibonacci correction level.

The attempt of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, as stochastic approaches 80 level might ease the mission of surpassing the current barrier, announcing its readiness to record extra gains by its rally towards 214.95 and 215.25, while the failure of the breach will force it to provide mixed unstable trading with a new chance for the decline towards 213.30.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.00 and 215.25

Trend forecast: Bullish