The GBPJPY pair activated with the negativity of the main indicators yesterday, to achieve the suggested negative targets in the previous report by reaching 209.40, which forces it to provide mixed trading to gather the required extra negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the negativity in the upcoming trading.
Note that forming an extra barrier at 210.65 level, and the stability of the trading below the moving average 55, these factors makes us keep the negative scenario to expect breaking the extra support at 209.10, to target new bearish stations that might begin at 208.30 reaching 206.90.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.30 and 210.40
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Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive bias for the second straight day on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains confined in the previous day’s broader range. The white metal holds above the $84.00 mark during the Asian session, up over 1% for the day.
The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the XAG/USD retreats from last week’s $86 area while holding below the rising 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 1-hour chart. The said SMA is pegged near $88 and should now act as overarching dynamic resistance.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator edges back toward the zero line after a prior positive phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below 50, reinforcing a consolidative-to-soft downside tone rather than an impulsive selloff.
Initial resistance emerges at the recent intraday highs around $85.00, followed by a stronger cap near $86.20, where prior peaks align with fading upside momentum. A break above the latter would open the way toward the $88.00 region, where the 100-hour SMA is clustered and would be expected to attract renewed selling interest.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $83.50, with a deeper floor at $82.00, close to the latest reaction low and trend-line proximity. A clear drop through $82.00 would expose the $80.95 trend-line break area as the next bearish target, signalling a more decisive shift away from the prevailing medium-term uptrend.
Meanwhile, the upward support trend line from around $64 remains intact, yet the recent pullback toward the low-$80s shows buyers losing immediate control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 1-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has dropped to 11-week lows below 1.3300 as escalating conflict involving Iran triggered a sharp deterioration in global risk appetite and a renewed surge in energy prices.
With oil and LNG costs jumping and investors flocking to safe-haven assets, the US dollar has strengthened broadly while Sterling faces additional pressure from the UK economy’s vulnerability to rising gas prices and slowing global growth.
GBP/USD Forecasts: 11-Week Lows
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rallied from lows on Monday, but failed to hold the gains and was subjected to renewed selling on Tuesday with a slide to 11-week lows just below 1.3300.
The dollar was boosted by renewed defensive demand while the slide in risk appetite undermined the Pound.
According to UoB; “Looking ahead, if GBP breaks below 1.3315, the focus will shift to 1.3250.” There is the potential for further support on any dip to the 1.3200 area.
MUFG now sees a risk of a slide to below 1.31 this month on dollar strength before a solid recovery to 1.37 later in the year.
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Energy-sector fears have intensified as Iran has attacked regional energy facilities and threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz. Oil prices have increased further while LNG prices have spiked again with close to a 100% increase from last week.
The UK economy remains vulnerable to higher gas prices and the Pound tends to remain under pressure when risk conditions slide.
ING noted the importance of energy prices; “FX traders will remain transfixed on gas and oil prices. The longer they stay elevated, the more the external accounts of the oil importers are damaged and the greater the drag on global growth from elevated inflation and curtailed monetary easing cycles.”
Scotiabank FX strategist Eric Theoret commented; “Today is, I would say, a classic risk-off day from a U.S. dollar perspective.”
He added; “If you’re looking to de-risk and de-risk in size, the U.S. Treasury market is really the only one that can handle those flows,” Theoret said. When global investors flood into Treasuries during a crisis, that drives up demand for the dollar.”
According to Rabobank; “While USD has not been behaving as a safe-haven traditionally would, given the dramatic USD sell-off in H1 2025, we have long argued that this was more about positioning. Indeed, recent price action makes it clear that when the going gets rough, investors still flee to the warm embrace of greenback liquidity.
ING added; “Europe is also on the wrong side of the ledger. The dollar looks the best currency to take advantage of this energy shock.”
MUFG noted; “We have made the assumption that the bulk of the negative impact on European currencies will occur this month before fading as the year progresses. It follows comments from President Trump that US military action in Iran could last for four to five weeks or so.
It added; “A more protracted conflict and/or much greater disruption to global energy supply would further increase downside risks to our forecasts for weaker European currencies against the US dollar.”
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Important DisclaimersFXEmpire is owned and operated by Empire Media Network LTD., Company Registration Number 514641786, registered at 7 Jabotinsky Road, Ramat Gan 5252007, Israel. The content provided on this website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and materials provided by third parties. This content is intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be interpreted as, a recommendation or advice to take any action, including making any investment or purchasing any product. Before making any financial decision, you should conduct your own due diligence, exercise your own discretion, and consult with competent advisors. The content on this website is not personally directed to you, and we do not take into account your individual financial situation or needs. The information contained on this website is not necessarily provided in real time, nor is it guaranteed to be accurate. Prices displayed may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges. Any trading or other financial decision you make is entirely your own responsibility, and you must not rely solely on any information provided through the website. FXEmpire does not provide any warranty regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information contained on the website and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of using such information. The website may include advertisements and other promotional content. FXEmpire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with such content. FXEmpire does not endorse, recommend, or assume responsibility for the use of any third-party services or websites. Empire Media Network LTD., its employees, officers, subsidiaries, and affiliates shall not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided herein.Risk DisclaimersThis website contains information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs), and other financial instruments, as well as about brokers, exchanges, and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and involve a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FX Empire encourages you to conduct your own research before making any investment decision and to avoid investing in any financial instrument unless you fully understand how it works and the risks involved.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends losses on Tuesday, falling nearly 10% as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields temper demand for safe-haven assets despite fragile market sentiment linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $80.68, hovering near its lowest level in over a week.
The pullback suggests markets are weighing escalating Middle East tensions against their potential economic consequences. Disruptions to Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have added a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.
Higher Oil prices could fuel global inflation pressures and potentially complicate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy easing path. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of precious metals, which tend to perform better in lower-rate environments.
From a technical perspective, the near-term outlook for XAG/USD has turned decisively bearish following a sharp reversal from Monday’s peak near $96.50.
The 4-hour chart shows the metal trading near the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern, increasing the risk of a downside breakout.
Momentum indicators reinforce the negative bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped toward the 30 level, approaching oversold territory and reflecting strong selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line in negative territory, with the histogram widening to the downside.
On the downside, a decisive break below the wedge support could intensify selling pressure, exposing the next support near $72.32, corresponding to the February 18 low. A deeper decline could then target the $64.08 region, marked by the February swing low.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-period SMA near $83.20, followed by the 200-period SMA around $88.80. A sustained move above the 200-period SMA would be needed to restore bullish momentum and signal a potential resumption of the broader uptrend.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/USD remained under heavy bearish pressure for the second consecutive day on Tuesday and closed deep in negative territory. Following a short-lasting recovery attempt in the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, the pair struggles to hold its ground and trades at around 1.1600 in the European session.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
1.45%
0.60%
0.90%
0.23%
0.46%
0.93%
1.93%
EUR
-1.45%
-0.86%
-0.53%
-1.20%
-0.98%
-0.50%
0.47%
GBP
-0.60%
0.86%
0.13%
-0.36%
-0.13%
0.35%
1.33%
JPY
-0.90%
0.53%
-0.13%
-0.62%
-0.40%
0.13%
1.04%
CAD
-0.23%
1.20%
0.36%
0.62%
0.19%
0.76%
1.69%
AUD
-0.46%
0.98%
0.13%
0.40%
-0.19%
0.47%
1.46%
NZD
-0.93%
0.50%
-0.35%
-0.13%
-0.76%
-0.47%
0.98%
CHF
-1.93%
-0.47%
-1.33%
-1.04%
-1.69%
-1.46%
-0.98%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) continued to capitalize on safe-haven flows on Tuesday, causing EUR/USD to push lower. While there are no signs of a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the USD stays resilient against its peers midweek and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction.
In the second half of the day, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will publish the Employment Change data for February. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report.
Growing concerns over rising energy prices feeding into inflation causes market participants to price in a further delay in the next Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed holding the policy rate steady in the next three meetings climbed above 60% from about 50% in the previous week.
In case the ADP data shows a stronger-than-forecast increase in private sector employment, the USD could continue to gather strength and trigger another leg lower in EUR/USD. On the flip side, a significant decline in either the ADP data or the Employment Index component of the ISM Services PMI could limit the USD’s gains and help EUR/USD find a foothold with the immediate reaction.
In the meantime, investors will continue to pay close attention to the action in stock markets. As of writing, US stock index futures were down between 0.25% and 0.4% on the day. Another risk-off action in Wall Street could support the USD later in the American session and weigh on EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
The near-term bias is bearish as the pair holds below the 20- and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 100- and 200-period SMAs cap higher around 1.18, reinforcing a downside-skewed backdrop. Price is tracking near the lower Bollinger Band, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30.4 sits just above oversold territory, signalling persistent selling pressure with only tentative signs of exhaustion. This configuration points to sellers remaining in control, with any rebounds seen as corrective while the price stays beneath the short- and medium-term averages.
Immediate resistance emerges at 1.1651, aligning with a nearby Bollinger mid-band region around 1.17, and a break above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way toward the 1.17–1.18 congestion where the longer SMAs reside. On the downside, initial support is seen at $1.1531, followed by $1.1500 and then $1.1460, levels that coincide with previous reaction lows and sit well below the lower Bollinger Band zone, where a decisive breach would confirm an extension of the prevailing downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Copper price lost the positive momentum in yesterday’s trading, to force it to settle below $5.9700 barrier, forming some bearish corrective trading by targeting $5.6700 level, to provide some mixed trading.
Note that stochastic attempts to provide extra negative momentum will increase the bearish corrective track in the current period, and the stability of the price below the previously mentioned barrier is important to make us expect targeting $5.6200 level, to attempt to press on the extra support near $5.5100.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.5100 and $5.8500
The EURJPY pair formed several bearish waves, affected by the stability below 184.85 barrier, activating with the main indicators’ negativity, achieving the previously suggested targets by reaching 182.05 level, which keeps forming an obstacle against the negative trading.
The last intraday positive rebound doesn’t threaten changing the negative track, to keep waiting for extra negative momentum to gather, to ease the mission of breaking 182.05 level and holding below it to confirm its readiness to target new bearish stations that might begin at 181.55 and 181.10.
The expected trading range for today is between 181.55 and 183.20
