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Continued sharp decline due to increased supply from Brazil

By Published On: November 2, 20244.1 min readViews: 410 Comments on Continued sharp decline due to increased supply from Brazil

Experts predict that coffee prices on November 2, 11 in the domestic market will tend to decrease slightly due to increased supply from Brazil thanks to favorable weather conditions.

Recorded in the trading session on November 1, 11, domestic coffee prices today increased by 2024 VND/kg, ranging from 600-108.800 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 109.200 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong, Dak Lak 109.200 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 109.100 VND, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 109.000 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 109.100 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 109.200 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee price forecast for November 2, 11: Continue to decline sharply due to increased supply from Brazil

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, it was purchased at 108.800 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (November 1) in Dak Lak province; in which in Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at about 11 VND/kg, an increase of 109.200 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 600 VND/kg.

Coffee price update world At 20:00 p.m. on September 1, 11, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price forecast on June 2, 11
Coffee prices today, July 1, 11: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.222 USD; Delivery term in January 59 is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.167 is 49 USD/ton, down 5 USD.

Coffee price forecast on June 2, 11
Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 1, 11. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 on October 1, 11 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 238.75 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 12 delivery period is 2024 cents/lb; down 242.50 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 3.40 delivery period is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; the May 242.05 delivery period is 3.45 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 241.00 cents/lb, down 3.45 cents/lb.

Coffee price forecast on June 2, 11
Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 1, 11. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 1, 11 decreased. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 296.30 is 0.80 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 295.90 USD/ton, down 0.92% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, down 299.15%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

Coffee prices have been fluctuating continuously over the past few days, with increases and decreases alternating. One of the reasons is that recently, Brazil has increased its exports of Robusta coffee to take advantage of the high prices.

Brazil’s coffee exports in the first two months of the 2-2024 crop year (July and August) reached 2025 tons, up nearly 7% and the turnover reached nearly 8 billion USD, up 451.000% over the same period last crop. Of which, Robusta coffee exports reached nearly 12 tons, up 1,9%; Arabica was 39 tons, up 110.000% and the rest was instant coffee, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO).

Coffee supplies are gradually recovering after two consecutive years of record shortages. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts world coffee production in the 2-2023 crop year to reach 2024 million tons, up 10,68% from the previous crop year. Of which, Arabica coffee output will increase by 5,8% to 8,8 million tons; while Robusta coffee will increase by only 6,13% to 2,1 million tons. In contrast, coffee consumption in the 4,53-2023 crop year will also increase by 2024% to 2,2 million tons.

According to forecasts from industry experts and the Cocoa Coffee Association (Vicofa), in the current context both domestically and internationally, coffee prices will certainly continue to decrease in the short term. This is considered normal because when the market fluctuates, prices will decrease accordingly.

Currently, Vietnamese coffee has been exported to over 80 countries and territories. Of which, Europe accounts for about 48% of the market share, Asia 21%, and America 6%.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

Sources: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-2112024-tiep-da-giam-manh-do-nguon-cung-tu-brazil-duoc-tang-cuong-356237.html
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