Accounting and consulting giant Deloitte has not changed its latest crude oil price forecasts for 2026 and beyond in response to the U.S. raid on Venezuela that led the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

The situation roiled shares of oil producing companies on Monday, as investors weighed the potential impact of the country’s heavy oil industry ramping up exports under American control. Industry analysts are now downplaying the potential impact on global prices.

The February 2026 contract for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F) crude closed about 1.74 per cent higher on Monday. Prices rose in early trading on Tuesday, before dipping into negative territory below US$58 per barrel.

In a new report, Deloitte calls for WTI to stay range-bound in 2026, averaging US$58 a barrel, before rising to US$61.20 in 2027, and US$67.65 in 2028. The estimate for 2026 is about 20 per cent lower than it was at this time last year, and about 12 per cent below the commodity’s 2025 average.

Deloitte also left its forecast for Western Canadian Select (WCS) unchanged on Tuesday as a result of the situation in Venezuela. WCS is Canada’s main heavy oil benchmark.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he continues to “see the competitiveness of Canadian oil,” while welcoming the prospect of greater economic prosperity in Venezuela.

Monday saw shares of major Canadian oil producers slide as investors weighed the prospect of Venezuelan oil competing with Canadian exports to satisfy U.S. demand. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO)(CNQ) saw its stock close over six per cent lower in Toronto. The iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (XEG.TO), a basket of big Canadian oil stocks, sank 3.4 per cent. It was a different story for U.S. oil majors. Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) ended the day higher.

Canadian oil stocks flipped between gains and losses in mid-day trading on Tuesday.

Like many industry experts, Deloitte partner Andrew Botterill says it will take many years and a lot of money to materially revive Venezuela’s battered oil industry.

“Canadian [crude] volumes have had the benefit of not really having to compete with much of the Venezuelan volumes for the last five or so years,” he told Yahoo Finance Canada on Monday.

“That competition may be back, but that’s something that we have to worry about in five to 10 years from now,” Botterill said.

“From a fundamentals supply and demand [perspective], not a lot changed this weekend. What we did recognize is out on the horizon, there could be a reshaping of what mid-term and long-term supply and demand might be.”

Oil market researcher Rory Johnston says China, not the United States, would likely absorb any short-term increases in Venezuelan oil exports.

“In the medium term, Venezuelan crude will reach the nearby U.S. Gulf Coast only once U.S. sanctions are repealed, or additional waivers are issued. This would put modest price pressure on other heavy sour grades, like Western Canadian Select and Mexican Maya,” Johnston wrote in his Commodity Context newsletter on Monday evening.

“In the long term, Venezuela can obviously produce more oil — easily two to 2.5 [thousand barrels per day] over the next 5+ years — but it will take monumental investment from U.S. companies that have already been burned in this exact market.”

Bart Melek, TD Securities head of commodity strategy, says U.S. intervention in Venezuela does not materially change his near-term outlook for oil.

“We expect a limited impact from Venezuela’s most acute geopolitical crisis since 1902-1903, but reiterate the potential for geopolitics to structurally alter global energy market dynamics in 2026,” Melek wrote in a research report.

Deloitte says the current oversupply in global oil markets is “the largest seen since the pandemic disruption.” However, unlike the COVID-19 scenario, Botterill says the glut today is driven by rising supply, not shrinking demand.

“What we do see is a lot of non-OPEC countries growing [production], and that has really changed the supply and demand balance that we saw for the kind of three years before that,” he added.

“What we’re probably going to see from Canadian producers is we’re going to see them being cautious in their budgets, and I think they are going to be careful in their investments, recognizing that we may have some downside price risk out there.”

Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist.