Executive Summary

Ethiopia is a significant global producer of green coffee, ranking among the world’s leading nations in production volume. The period from 2020 to 2024 saw Ethiopia’s market characterized by its role as a net exporter, with key destinations including Saudi Arabia, Germany, and the United States. Export prices demonstrated a long-term modest upward trend, reaching an average of $5,370 per ton in 2024, while import prices for the smaller volume of coffee brought into the country averaged $3,876 per ton. The forecast to 2035 anticipates continued evolution in trade patterns and pricing, influenced by global demand dynamics and production trends in major supplying countries.

Market Context (2020-2024)

Globally, green coffee consumption was led by the United States, Vietnam, and Germany, which together accounted for 28% of total consumption in 2024. On the production side, Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia were the dominant players, collectively responsible for 56% of global output. Ethiopia was positioned among the next tier of producers, alongside countries such as Colombia, Uganda, Peru, Honduras, India, and the Central African Republic; this group together accounted for a further 26% of worldwide production.

Within this global landscape, Ethiopia maintained a strong export-oriented market. The country’s production consistently supplied both regional and international markets, with its coffee being a significant export commodity. The market dynamics from 2020 through 2024 were shaped by global price movements and evolving trade relationships.

Trade and Price Signals

Ethiopia’s green coffee trade was marked by a substantial export flow and a much smaller import volume. In value terms, the largest markets for Ethiopian green coffee exports worldwide were Saudi Arabia, Germany, and the United States, which together constituted 45% of total export value. Other significant destinations included South Korea, Japan, China, Italy, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, France, and Belgium, together comprising a further 35%.

Conversely, Ethiopia’s imports of green coffee were minimal in volume. The leading suppliers by value were Uganda, Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates, which together accounted for 96% of total imports.

The average export price for green coffee stood at $5,370 per ton in 2024, representing a 3.5% increase from the previous year. Over the twelve-year period leading to 2024, export prices increased at an average annual rate of 1.5%, though with noticeable fluctuations. The peak price of $5,517 per ton was reached in 2022, following a 41% increase that year. The 2024 price was 2.7% below the 2022 peak.

The average import price in 2024 was $3,876 per ton, a decrease of 7.6% against 2023. Overall, import prices showed a relatively flat trend pattern over the period, having reached a record high of $4,196 per ton in 2023 after a significant increase in 2022.

Outlook to 2035

The forecast for Ethiopia’s green coffee market to 2035 projects ongoing changes in trade flows and price structures. Global consumption patterns, led by major markets such as the United States and Germany, will continue to influence demand for Ethiopian exports. Production levels in competing nations, including Brazil and Vietnam, will remain critical factors affecting global supply and price benchmarks.

Export prices are expected to follow a trajectory influenced by global commodity cycles, quality differentiation, and market access. Import prices will likely reflect conditions in regional supply markets, particularly from neighboring Uganda. The price differential between export and import values may persist, reflecting Ethiopia’s position as a producer of distinct coffee varieties. Market diversification efforts could alter the share of exports to traditional partners, while domestic consumption and processing developments may also shape future trade dynamics.