Created on November 20, 2024

• The euro tumbled against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, driven by heightened market anxiety over reports of Russia easing nuclear weapon restrictions following Ukraine’s launch of six NATO-provided missiles into Russian territory. 
• Because of this, there was a rush to safety and Europe wasn’t exactly the place people wanted to run to.
• So, it all sets up for an obvious trade here.

That being said, it looks like cooler heads have prevailed and the 161.50 yen level has offered enough support to turn things around and form a bit of a hammer. The 163.50 level is an area that’s been like a bit of a magnet for price and previously it had been major resistance. So, the fact that we’re there again does make me very interested in this EUR/JPY pair, as this could be some kind of signal on where we go overall.

If We Can Break Higher

If we can turn around and break above the highs of the trading session on Monday, then we may have the juice to go looking to the 165 yen level, possibly even the 166.50 yen level. Longer term, I still think this pair goes higher, mainly due to the fact that the Japanese have absolutely no way whatsoever to tighten monetary policy in any meaningful manner otherwise, they will trash the Japanese economy.

If there is a run to safety for whatever reason, if we break down below the 161 yen level, then I think the bottom in this pair falls apart. And you probably then start to see Japanese yen strength against pretty much everything. All things being equal though, the Japanese are somewhat stuck. And I think that even the lowly euro will continue to find buyers against it although it might be a choppy road on the way higher.

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