Created on February 21, 2025

• During the trading session on Thursday, we have seen the Euro rallied quite significantly against the US dollar, as it looks like we are going to head toward the 1.05 level yet again.
• The 1.05 level is an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course we have seen this area tested a couple of times.
• At this point in time I think it is going to be very difficult to break through, mainly because there’s so much congestion all the way to the 1.06 level.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this EUR/USD pair of course is pretty significant to look at, as the market is at the top of a consolidation range. Quite frankly, this is a market that I think will be looking to see whether or not the US dollar can finally soften, because quite frankly it’s like a wrecking ball to risk appetite. That being said, Germany and France exiting a recession is what most people are starting to price in, so to be interesting to see how that plays out.

Recently, we seen interest rates in the United States drift a little bit lower, and that’s part of what’s going on, but the same time we are starting to see people think that perhaps there won’t be as big of a trade war as once anticipated. It’ll be interesting to see if that actually ends up being the case, it looks beyond is here: Donald Trump could write this train by putting out a tweet. I have gotten several emails from newer traders who have no idea how to deal with Trump 2.0, which is going to be challenging under the best of circumstances.

As things stand right now, we are simply at the top of a consolidation area and not waiting to see whether or not the euro can break out. I think it’s going to be a struggle, or at least at this moment. However, once we get above the 1.06 level I think the trend will change permanently.

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