Modified: Wednesday, 22 October 2025 23:15 BST

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: “EUR Could Test 1.1580”, Gold Price Slump Supports USD

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has continued to lose ground, retreating to 1-week lows just below 1.1580 amid a solid dollar tone and a further sell-off in gold.

According to ING; “The dollar has remained bid as US credit market concerns continue to ease, and the large drop in precious metals potentially offers extra support. More USD gains from here should be harder to sustain though.”

Wall Street futures were slightly stronger on the day and, according to Danske Bank; “The cross remains largely driven by US credit and equity sentiment.”

UoB sees scope for a near-term trough; “EUR could test 1.1580, but a continued decline below this level is unlikely. The major support at 1.1540 is also unlikely to come into view for now. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1620 and 1.1640.”

Danske Bank has a 12-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.22.

Geo-political developments had a limited negative impact on the Euro following reports that the potential meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin had been postponed which dampened any talk of a potential Ukraine ceasefire.

Global trade developments will also be important amid underlying tensions over rare-earth minerals.

According to ING, US-China trade developments will need to be watched closely. President Trump stated on Tuesday that his meeting with Chinese President Xi may not take place.

ING commented; “For now, this is being seen as simple brinkmanship, but China has struck a sourer tone around these negotiations, and markets may be erring on the side of complacency. No meeting doesn’t equal higher tariffs, but it should be enough to weigh on risk sentiment and the dollar.”

US political developments will also be under scrutiny.

Danske Bank commented; “The government shutdown is now on the cusp of becoming the second-longest on record as it enters its fourth week, and prediction markets increasingly see it extending into November. The next key catalyst for the pair will be Friday’s CPI release, where we see upside risks that could lend the USD additional near-term support.”

Markets are continuing to price in over a 95% chance of a Fed rate cut next week with over a 90% chance of another cut in December.

The latest US consumer prices data is due on Friday with consensus forecasts that core prices will increase 0.3% for September.

Commerzbank commented; “the data is unlikely to be a game changer for next week’s Fed meeting, as the majority of Fed members assume that any tariff effect on inflation will be temporary anyway.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts