Created on April 01, 2025

• Currency experts predict that the euro/US dollar exchange rate may reach 1.09 during the key tariff week.
• Currently, the euro continues to attract buying interest during periods of weakness.
• Financial markets are generally tense ahead of the tariff announcements on April 2, but the euro is not showing this and is likely to make further gains in the coming days.
• According to licensed trading platforms, the EUR/USD price is stabilizing around 1.0805, and as expected, it will remain range-bound with its current downward bias until we react to important and influential events.

Caution Dominates Financial Markets

Dear reader, beware of the “sell the rumours and buy the facts” reaction, which could support the US dollar if the US stock market recovers, as investors believe we are reaching the limits of negative US tariff headlines. However, the tariff headlines have not helped the US dollar. Despite these potential reactions, it’s clear that the US dollar will face difficulties in 2025, as Trump’s tariffs and other policy announcements have proven ineffective for the US economy.

If this trend continues, a tough tariff announcement could test the EUR/USD pair and break the 1.09 level in the coming days. Sometimes, simplification is the best approach in times of uncertainty.

Trading Tips:

The EUR/USD will remain bearish until the reaction to the US jobs data releases and the reaction to Trump’s tariffs is over.

US Data vs. Tariffs

This important week, important US economic data may overshadow the tariff headlines. It’s an eventful week in the US, as we get clear indications of how resilient the economy is in light of Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts, policy volatility, and tariffs. Surveys are pointing to a sharp deterioration in sentiment, and we’ll be interested to see if this will impact other data.

If the answer is yes, the possibility of the US dollar declining and the EUR/USD pair rising to 1.09 and above becomes a real possibility. In fact, some analysts believe that the data will be more significant for the US dollar than the tariff news.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

After retreating from its recent highs, the EUR/USD pair found renewed demand last week, confirming strong buying interest during periods of weakness. Simply put, the EUR/USD exchange rate is in an upward trend, and we expect the recent resilience to continue as a result. For this simple reason, the 1.09 level will be present over the next five days. The EUR/USD pair is trading above its nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.0815, while momentum has rebounded, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the index pointing to a new high of 59. It is also above its 21-day EMA (1.0770), where last week’s heavy selling found strong support.

However, the situation could turn upside next Wednesday when Trump announces his “Liberation Day” tariffs, which are expected to see significant increases on EU imports. Commenting on this, some major investment bank analysts believe the decision could hinder global growth, hurt stock markets, and boost the dollar.

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