This mix of economic resilience and policy divergence has traders questioning whether intervention looms before year-end.

US Economic Data and the Fed Outlook

While markets speculate about yen interventions and the BoJ’s rate path, US data and Fed speakers could influence US dollar demand later on Friday.

US producer prices and retail sales figures are set for release. Barring further delays to report releases, the two data sets will give key insights into inflation and consumption.

An uptick in producer prices could further temper bets on a December Fed rate cut, boosting demand for the US dollar. Meanwhile, weaker retail sales, likely because of the shutdown, combined with rising producer prices, could fuel stagflation fears.

With the Fed placing greater emphasis on inflation, higher producer prices would point to a less dovish stance, supporting a potential USD/JPY return to 155. Markets have cut expectations of a December rate cut in recent sessions, contributing to the USD/JPY return to 155.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has tumbled from 69.6% on November 6 to 50.7% on November 13.

Despite near-term strength, the broader outlook remains bearish because narrowing rate differentials could shift momentum in favor of the yen. The Fed remains on a dovish rate path, while the BoJ continues to keep a rate hike on the table. Additionally, markets may speculate about a shift in the Fed’s focus from inflation to supporting the economy, which could trigger US dollar weakness.

The key question now is whether markets buy into the Fed prioritizing inflation.

USD/JPY Scenarios: Diverging Monetary Policies

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Hawkish BoJ rhetoric, intervention threats, weak US data, and dovish Fed comments could drag USD/JPY toward 153.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Dovish BoJ cues, rising US producer prices, and hawkish Fed chatter could send USD/JPY toward 155.

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD FX Forecast: Pound Sterling Rises Despite Weak UK GDP

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) pushed higher on Thursday as an improving global risk mood helped offset the negative impact of disappointing UK GDP figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3154, up roughly 0.2% on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) fell on Thursday as investors moved out of safe-haven assets and back toward risk-sensitive positions following the official end of the longest US government shutdown in history.

The House of Representatives approved a funding bill late on Wednesday, with President Donald Trump signing it into law shortly afterwards.

The resolution lifted sentiment across global markets and encouraged traders to rotate out of USD, weighing on the currency.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, found only limited support from the softer Dollar, with gains capped by the release of disappointing UK growth data earlier in the session.

Fresh figures showed the UK economy slowed more sharply than expected in the third quarter, expanding by just 0.1%, while September’s monthly GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%.

The weaker readings deepened concerns ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget, where speculation continues to grow over the likelihood of tax increases and further fiscal tightening.

These worries limited Sterling’s upside despite the broader risk-on backdrop.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Remarks in Focus

Looking ahead, GBP/USD may trade more cautiously on Friday, with no major UK or US economic releases due.

Instead, markets will turn to commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers — particularly Jeffrey Schmid, one of the more hawkish voices on the committee.

Any firm remarks on inflation risks or hints that rates may need to stay higher for longer could lend USD fresh support.

For the Pound, political unease ahead of the autumn budget and concerns over the UK’s weakening growth outlook may keep Sterling vulnerable into the weekend, especially with traders continuing to price in further Bank of England rate cuts.

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Created on November 13, 2025

• The British Pound weakened through Wednesday, pressured by expectations of upcoming Bank of England rate cuts.
• The analyst sees 1.30 as possible support, but a break below 1.32 could send GBP/USD toward 1.2750 amid persistent U.S. dollar strength.

The British Pound has spent the bulk of its trading on Wednesday to the downside. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see downward pressure, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to fall off a cliff. The market could be looking at the 1.30 level underneath as a potential target.

Maybe 1.30 is a Floor

It could, in theory, be a floor, but at this point, I think breaking down below the 1.32 level kicks off a move all the way down to the 1.2750 level. The 1.2750 level is an area where we had seen a lot of momentum to the upside back in April, and now it looks like we are going to do a complete round trip. This is about the US dollar more than the British Pound.

Although we had recently seen a little bit of a rally in the Pound due to the fact that the Bank of England chose not to cut rates, the vote was very close, and it does suggest that we are in fact, going to see British rate cuts rather quickly. With this being the case, the market will continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think you have a scenario where each time it rallies, you have to be looking for selling opportunities.

If the market does in fact rally and give up the gains, the market then fires off another selling signal. As far as buying is concerned, I’d have to see the British Pound break above the 200-day EMA at the very minimum to start thinking about buying. Furthermore, I’d have to see the US dollar struggle against multiple other currencies—it wouldn’t just be here.

Ready to trade our daily Forex GBP/USD analysis? We’ve made this UK forex brokers list for you to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 13, 2025

• The US dollar surged against the Japanese yen, breaking above 154.50 and testing 155 as bullish momentum remains strong.
• Supported by the wide interest rate gap, dips are likely to attract buyers, with long-term upside potential toward 159 yen.

The US dollar has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking above the crucial 154.50 yen level and even testing the 155 yen level. That being said, I think we do have further to go, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we pull back slightly, but there are buyers underneath that I think continue to push this pair higher.

Interest Rate Continues to Play a Part

The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar over the Japanese yen, and that won’t change anytime soon. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where traders are looking for some type of reason to get long or perhaps even buy dips in order to hang on to a bigger move.

I do think we’ve got a situation where if we were to break down below the 153 yen level, then maybe we have to step back and let the market do its thing, wait for a bounce, and then get involved.

But right now, I don’t see any reason to short this market. I think you’ve got a scenario where there is just going to be too much bullish pressure at this point to consider trying to go against the overall flow of things. In fact, I think as long as we can stay above the 150 yen level, there’s a real world in which the US dollar is still going to rip to the upside. In fact, my longer-term target is closer to 159 yen, but it doesn’t have to happen overnight. Quite frankly, I don’t think it will. This is going to be more or less a grind, but you get paid at the end of every day to be on the long side of this trade.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.