Platinum price kept its fluctuation below $1605.00 barrier, forcing it to provide new nixed trading by its continued fluctuation near $1580.00, reminding you that the stability above the sideways track’s support at $1520.00 and the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to expect surpassing the current barrier by recording new gains by its rally towards $1642.00 and $1660.00.
While the decline below the current support and providing negative close, will confirm activating the bearish corrective track, to expect suffering several losses by reaching $1485.00 reaching the next support at $1440.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1545.00 and$1642.00
While Japanese data drew market attention early in the Wednesday session, Capitol Hill will take center stage later. The Senate approved a funding package to reopen the government on Tuesday, November 11, passing the bill to the House.
Markets expected a House vote to approve the Senate’s measure, potentially reopening the government this week. However, USD/JPY is exposed to the risk of the House failing to approve the bill, given that it differs from the bill the House had originally passed to the Senate.
Further delays to the US government returning to office could trigger a US dollar sell-off, sending USD/JPY toward 153. On the other hand, the pair could rise toward 155 if the House approves the bill. However, a move toward 155 may draw the Japanese government’s attention and potentially trigger more yen intervention threats, suggesting a choppy session.
While Capitol Hill will take center stage, traders should monitor FOMC members’ speeches. Views on inflation, labor market conditions, and potential economic fallout from the shutdown will influence bets on a December Fed rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a Fed rate cut in December were finely balanced, rising from 62.4% on November 10 to 67.9% on November 11.
Despite near-term strength, the broader outlook remains bearish as narrowing rate differentials may favor the yen. The Fed remains on a dovish rate path, while the BoJ continues to keep a rate hike on the table, supporting a narrowing in rate differentials in favor of the yen.
USD/JPY Scenarios: Diverging Monetary Policies
Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Hawkish BoJ chatter, intervention warnings, failure by the House to approve the funding bill, and dovish Fed rhetoric could drag USD/JPY toward 153.
Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Dovish BoJ signals, House passes funding bill, and hawkish Fed rhetoric could send USD/JPY toward 155.
The advance blew past the minor $4.54 target and cleared the 161.8% ABCD projection, while breaking decisively above the 150% extension of the original rising channel. The next channel line at the 175% extension is now the clear focal point, together with the 200% ABCD projection at $4.82.
Proximity to March High
Current price sits only 7% below the March $4.90 spike—a level reached in a single session and closed at the low—suggesting potentially light supply on any retest and raising the odds of a challenge or exceedance of the 2025 high before correction arrives.
Failed August Breakdown Context
The August breakdown below the long-term rising channel quickly failed, producing instead the current sharp rally. False breakouts classically lead to strong moves in the opposite direction, providing additional backing for a possible run at $4.90. This remains a possibility only – new price action will confirm or invalidate it.
Downside Support Framework
Initial dynamic support lies at the sharply rising 10-day average, currently $4.24. Former resistance near $4.15 offers the next reaction zone, with the 20-day average at $3.75 as the deeper target on any 10-day failure.
Overbought Warning Signs
The steep slope of the 10-day average and overbought RSI highlight an extended market that is undeniably due for a correction, even as momentum remains robust for now.
Outlook
Natural gas stays in control of the bulls, with the 150% channel breakout and clearance of the 161.8% ABCD pointing toward $4.82 and the 175% line. Light historical resistance near $4.90 and the prior failed channel breakdown keep the 2025 high very much in play. Any pullback should be contained by $4.24–$4.15 support; sustained trade above $4.58 preserves full upside initiative.
The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) fell on Tuesday after a surprise jump in UK unemployment reinforced speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) could lower interest rates as soon as next month.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3135, down roughly 0.3% on the day.
The Pound (GBP) slipped sharply at the start of the session after figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK unemployment rate rising to 5% in the three months to September, up from 4.8% and above expectations for a smaller increase to 4.9%.
This marks the highest level of joblessness in more than four years and comes alongside evidence of easing wage pressures, with average earnings (excluding bonuses) slowing from 4.7% to 4.6%.
The combination of rising unemployment and weaker pay growth added to signs that the UK jobs market is losing momentum. Investors responded by ramping up bets on a BoE rate cut in December, with markets now pricing in a 73% probability of a move, pushing Sterling lower across the board.
The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, traded in mixed fashion as optimism over progress toward ending the US government shutdown was offset by improving risk appetite that limited safe-haven demand.
The Senate’s approval of a budget bill on Monday evening was seen as a critical step toward resolving the crisis, helping to restore some market confidence. However, with the House of Representatives yet to vote, traders remained cautious.
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A potential resolution would reopen the release of delayed federal data, including key employment and inflation figures, which could quickly reshape expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Central Bank Commentary to Steer Direction
Looking ahead, a series of speeches from central bank officials on Wednesday will likely set the tone for the Pound to Dollar exchange rate.
In the UK, remarks from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill will be closely watched after he previously warned about persistent inflation pressures. Should Pill soften his stance following the weaker jobs data, Sterling could extend its decline. Conversely, any suggestion that policymakers remain wary of cutting rates too soon could offer the Pound some relief.
Across the Atlantic, comments from Federal Reserve officials John Williams, Christopher Waller, and Stephen Miran will be in focus. As all three are viewed as relatively dovish, any fresh hints of a softer Fed policy outlook could weigh on the Dollar, limiting its gains against the Pound.
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EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third consecutive session, trading around 178.40 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross shows strong short-term momentum, trading above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, signaling a strengthening bullish bias.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross tests the crucial level of 178.50, followed by the all-time high of 178.82, reached on October 30, near the psychological level of 179.00. Further advances above this confluence resistance area would open the doors for the currency cross to explore the region around the psychological level of 180.00.
The immediate support lies at the psychological level of 178.00, followed by the nine-day EMA at 177.55. A break below the latter would weaken the short-term price momentum and prompt the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending trendline around 176.50, followed by the 50-day EMA at 175.51.
Further declines below the 50-day EMA would dampen the medium-term price momentum and cause the emergence of the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the two-month low of 172.14, which was recorded on September 9.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.04%
0.41%
0.19%
0.10%
0.27%
0.02%
-0.14%
EUR
-0.04%
0.37%
0.14%
0.06%
0.23%
-0.01%
-0.18%
GBP
-0.41%
-0.37%
-0.22%
-0.30%
-0.17%
-0.39%
-0.54%
JPY
-0.19%
-0.14%
0.22%
-0.09%
0.08%
-0.18%
-0.33%
CAD
-0.10%
-0.06%
0.30%
0.09%
0.17%
-0.09%
-0.24%
AUD
-0.27%
-0.23%
0.17%
-0.08%
-0.17%
-0.24%
-0.46%
NZD
-0.02%
0.00%
0.39%
0.18%
0.09%
0.24%
-0.16%
CHF
0.14%
0.18%
0.54%
0.33%
0.24%
0.46%
0.16%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
A 4-week average US ADP Employment Change report revived hopes for a December rate cut.
The US federal government is likely to reopen before the end of the week.
XAU/USD loses its bullish strength, but the risk remains skewed to the upside.
Gold price advanced towards $4,150, its highest in three weeks, before trimming early gains and stabilizing in the $4,110 area. Financial markets are in a wait-and-see mode amid hopes the United States (US) government will soon reopen, which puts some intraday pressure on the US Dollar (USD). Other than that, a bank holiday in the US, due to Veterans’ Day, exacerbates the intraday quietness.
On the data front, the United Kingdom (UK) and the US published weak employment data, fueling bets on upcoming rate cuts in both countries. On the one hand, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the ILO Unemployment rate surged to 5% in the three months to September, higher than the previous 4.8% and worse than the anticipated 4.9%. Other than that, Employment Change in the same period indicated 22,000 fewer active workers, vs the previous 91,000 increase.
In the US, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) released a new 4-week average on Employment Change, which showed that in the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the benchmark interest rate when it met in October, but Chair Jerome Powell noted that a December cut should not be taken for granted. The ADP figures surely revive hopes for an upcoming cut before the end of the year. Still, the focus remains on the federal government reopening and the release of official data.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
XAU/USD’s current retracement does not affect the positive bias. In the 4-hour chart, the pair stands above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising above the 100 and 200 SMAs, underscoring the bullish momentum. The 100-period SMA still trends lower as the 200-period SMA grinds higher, a mixed slope that slightly tempers the near-term impulse. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds above its 100 line and ticks higher, indicating sustained buying pressure. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63.47, easing from overbought yet maintaining a positive tone.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish scope. The 20-day SMA holds above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, while the longer gauges continue to rise. The 20-day SMA at $4,082.05 offers nearby dynamic support. In the meantime, the Momentum indicator remains below 100 and edges higher, indicating a fading bearish pressure, while the RSI hovers around 58, modestly above the midline and consistent with a positive bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
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Pound Still Vulnerable on Fundamental Grounds, GBP/USD Still Looking for Escape Velocity
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) secured a further recovery last Friday as the dollar lost ground.
It hit highs of 1.3180 in early Europe on Monday amid a jump in risk appetite before settling around 1.3160 with unease over UK fundamentals limiting the scope for further gains.
According to UoB; “Upward momentum has slowed, and today, we expect GBP to trade in range, most likely between 1.3105 and 1.3175.”
Standard Chartered commented; “GBP/USD appears technically oversold, leaving scope for a short-term corrective rebound. We see the significant resistance around 1.35.”
Risk appetite has been boosted by hopes that the US government shutdown will end following the Senate vote in favour of the latest compromise bill.
A boost to risk appetite could undermine the US currency, although there would also be an important element of relief surrounding the economy amid increased evidence that the shutdown is having a damaging impact.
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ING commented; “While some might argue that the end of the shutdown could be a risk-on, dollar-negative impulse for the FX markets, its impact may be more mixed. Late last week, the dollar was under pressure on job layoffs and rhetoric that the US economy could contract in the fourth quarter should the shutdown extend.”
The University of Michigan consumer confidence index retreated to 50.3 for November from 53.6 previously. This was below expectations of 53.0 and the second-weakest reading on record.
MUFG added; “Household finances deteriorated markedly with the index also hitting a record low in November.”
According to ING market analyst Tony Sycamore; “The consumer confidence data was a shocker and pretty clear evidence that the shutdown was affecting households, so this does alleviate the damage that’s been done.”
Domestically, markets will continue to monitor any hints surrounding tax measures in the November 26th budget. Fiscal policy will also feed into expectations surrounding Bank of England policy.
UK data will also be watched closely with the labour-market release on Tuesday.
Consensus forecasts are for the unemployment rate to edge higher to a fresh 4-year high of 4.9% from 4.8% while underlying earnings growth is expected to slow to 4.6% from 4.7%.
Weaker than expected data would reinforce expectations that BoE Governor Bailey will back a rate cut at the December meeting.
ING remains cautious surrounding the Pound prospects; “We still think the prospects of a December 25bp cut from the Bank of England are underpriced. The market now attaches just a 60% probability to such an outcome.”
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Natural gas price faced difficulty by surpassing $4.520 level, forming extra barrier against the bullish rally, which forced it to form some mixed trading by its stability near $4.380.
Reminding you that the stability of the trading within the main bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image, besides forming extra support at $4.200 level, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to repeat the attempts of breaching the current obstacle and recording extra gains that might begin at $4.750 reaching the near period at $4.910.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.200 and $4.520
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
I analyze USD/JPY’s continued strength, noting resistance near ¥154–155 and support at ¥153.
With interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. dollar and Japan’s ongoing quantitative easing, I expect further upside toward ¥160 on pullbacks.
The U.S. dollar has shown itself to be stronger against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Monday as we are trying to break above the ¥154 level, but it’s probably going to take some type of external pressure or whatever to get this pair going higher. If we finally clear the ¥155 level, then I think you’ve got a real shot at this market taking off to the upside. And if it does, then we really get moving much higher.
Support Below
That being said, I think you also have to keep in mind that the ¥153 level offers support, and it’s an area that previously had been resistance. When I look at this, I think market memory coming into play makes a certain amount of sense. The interest rate differential, of course, favors the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, and I think it probably will going forward.
Ultimately, this is a market where the interest rate differential really makes the difference, and with this being the case, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see the market really take off toward the ¥160 level.
This is especially true as the Bank of Japan has no real hope of cutting the quantitative easing trajectory that they’ve been on for decades. The Federal Reserve has recently suggested that the rate-cutting cycle may not be as aggressive as the market has been pricing in, and therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where it’s a bit of a perfect storm. So, at this point, I do like this market on dips, as I think it gives you value that you can take advantage of from time to time.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
