The EURCAD price remains affected by the negative pressures, to move away from 1.6100 resistance, forming strong bearish waves, to achieve several negative targets by reaching 1.5620.
Forming extra barrier at 1.5870 level and stochastic attempt to provide negative momentum, we expect renewing the bearish attempts until reaching the next main target at 1.5520, facing the moving average 55, which might form a strong obstacle against the attempts of resuming the decline in the near trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.5520 and 1.5760
The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) remained firm near 1.1575, hovering close to five-week highs, as rising UK bond yields and shifting Bank of England policy expectations continued to underpin Sterling.
Markets have rapidly scaled back expectations of near-term rate cuts following the recent surge in energy prices, helping the Pound outperform even as equities weaken and speculation grows that the European Central Bank could consider further tightening.
GBP/EUR Forecasts: Close to 5-Week Highs,/h3>
Pound-Euro found support on dips and is trading around 1.1575, close to 5-week highs. The pair also remains significantly higher than levels before the US attacks on Iran. Further tough resistance comes in around 1.16.
ING sees Bank of England chatter as overblown and is not backing further Pound gains; “We continue to favour a return to 0.870 rather than a drop to 0.860.” (This converts to a GBP/EUR drop to at least 1.15)
Equities lost ground on Wednesday which hampered the Pound to some extent and there has been an increase in speculation over an ECB rate hike, but Sterling remains resilient.
Chatter surrounding interest rates and energy-price developments remain key elements. As far as UK data is concerned, the next GDP release is due on Friday with expectations of 0.2% growth for January.
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There has been renewed selling in gilts on Wednesday with the 10-year bond yield above 4.60% from a Tuesday close near 4.50%.
Markets have ruled out a near-term Bank of England (BoE) rate cut and are less confident over a cut over the next few months. This shift has been triggered by stronger energy prices, although volatility remains intense.
ING commented on higher UK yields; “The move does, however, start to look a bit stretched according to our short-term valuation metrics, and the decline in oil prices below $90 today may well encourage some dovish re-assessment in UK rate expectations and prompt a correction higher in EUR/GBP.
MUFG commented on the outlook; “The MPC will certainly be more wary of cutting rates given the fact that there are already a number of hawks who were concerned, prior to this energy price spike, about the continued stickiness of underlying inflation.”
The bank notes mixed implications; “Yield certainly appears to be providing the pound with support but whether that would persist is questionable given the potential hit to real incomes.”
Higher yields will also trigger fresh concerns surrounding the fiscal outlook.
There will be no immediate impact on utility prices until the July change in the OFGEM price cap. Indeed, prices will decline in April.
MUFG did, however, note; “Mortgage rate increases and petrol pump price increases will happen quickly.”
ECB policy expectations will also be monitored closely. ING noted; “This morning, we heard a more aggressively hawkish remark by Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who said a rate hike on the back of the Iran conflict may be closer than thought.”
Bank President Lagarde also stated that the bank would not tolerate a repeat of the 2022/23 jump in inflation. Following the comments, markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a rate hike by June.
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The market appears to be moving lockstep with crude oil prices. Early in the session on Wednesday, the IEA announced a record oil reserve release that failed to put expected pressure on oil and prices firmed. Natural gas followed a similar pattern before reversing to the upside.
Late Wednesday, the U.S. announced it would release oil from its own Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), yet crude oil rallied even higher after the news. The U.S. release is expected to take 120 days, which is too long for crude oil traders apparently. Natural gas edged higher on the move.
Weather Takes a Back Seat
Analysts at NatGasWeather are focusing on the 15-day weather forecast which says we could see a jump in national demand over the next six days, then strong days 7-9. However, warm temperatures are expected to return March 20-24.
Nonetheless, weather and production are not the catalysts underpinning the market. These traditional fundamentals are battling an escalation in European prices and new Middle East attacks from Iran on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and Israel.
Strait of Hormuz Still Blocked
Conditions could continue to get complicated in the Middle East. It looks as if they are escalating even though President Trump suggested on Monday that the end of the war is near. Furthermore, we’ve seen little progress in the attempts to open the Strait of Hormuz by the U.S. Navy. That promise was made late last week, but it looks like it can’t be delivered if Iran has laid mines in the water.
EIA Storage Report
Looking ahead to Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report, traders are pricing in a decline of about 41 Bcf. That will be smaller than the 5-year average of -64 Bcf.
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure after posting losses on Wednesday and trades in negative territory at around 1.1550 in the European morning on Thursday. In the absence of high-tier data releases, the risk-averse market atmosphere could make it difficult for the pair to stage a rebound in the near term.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.18%
0.20%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.24%
0.15%
0.24%
EUR
-0.18%
0.02%
-0.26%
-0.22%
0.06%
-0.02%
0.05%
GBP
-0.20%
-0.02%
-0.28%
-0.25%
0.04%
-0.04%
0.03%
JPY
0.10%
0.26%
0.28%
0.02%
0.32%
0.22%
0.29%
CAD
0.05%
0.22%
0.25%
-0.02%
0.29%
0.21%
0.26%
AUD
-0.24%
-0.06%
-0.04%
-0.32%
-0.29%
-0.08%
-0.01%
NZD
-0.15%
0.02%
0.04%
-0.22%
-0.21%
0.08%
0.05%
CHF
-0.24%
-0.05%
-0.03%
-0.29%
-0.26%
0.00%
-0.05%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Although investors cheered the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) decision to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market on Wednesday, news pointing to a further escalation of the Middle East crisis weighed heavily on market mood.
Iraq reportedly shut down oil port operations after Iran attacked two foreign oil tankers, while Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. In turn, crude Oil prices started rising again and the US Dollar (USD) benefited from safe-haven flows, causing EUR/USD to push lower.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar on Thursday. Investors are likely to ignore this report and remain focused on geopolitics. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down about 0.7% on the day. A bearish opening in Wall Street, followed by a selloff, could continue to boost the USD and drag EUR/USD lower in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1549. The near-term bias stays mildly bearish as the pair holds below the 20- and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 100- and 200-period SMAs around 1.17–1.18 cap the broader trend from above. Price is drifting near the lower area of the recent Bollinger Band structure, reflecting subdued volatility and persistent downside pressure rather than capitulation selling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the low-40s, consistent with a weak bearish tone without oversold conditions, which leaves room for further downside probes.
Immediate support appears at 1.1531, the nearest horizontal level beneath spot, with a break opening the way toward 1.1500 and then 1.1460. On the upside, initial resistance stands at the 20-period SMA near 1.1590, followed by the 50-period SMA around 1.1620, where the upper Bollinger Band zone would further challenge a recovery. A sustained move above these clustered moving averages would be needed to ease bearish pressure and allow a retest of the 1.1670 horizontal resistance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Platinum price provided new negative close below the initial resistance at $2245.00, to activate with stochastic negativity by forming some bearish waves, approaching the initial target at $2125.
The fluctuation below the moving average 55 will increase the chances of resuming the bearish attack, to expect providing new bearish pressure on $2125.00 level, and breaking it might extend the trading towards $2080.00 and $2040.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $2080.00 and $2195.00
The EURJPY pair failed in resuming the bullish track, due to its fluctuation below 184.40 level, to form bearish wave to settle near 183.50 level.
The suggested scenario in near trading depends on the strength of the mentioned barrier, as its stability makes us expect forming bearish waves to attempt to reach 182.90 and 182.50, while the price rally above the barrier and providing positive close will increase the chances of forming extra gains, to expect its rally towards 184.80 and 185.45 directly.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.90 and 184.00
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate drifted lower on Wednesday following the release of the latest US inflation data.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3392, down roughly 0.2% from the start of the session.
The US Dollar gained modest ground after the publication of the newest US consumer price index figures.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that headline inflation held steady at 2.4% in February, while the core rate remained unchanged at 2.5%. Both readings matched market expectations.
These figures lent the ‘Greenback’ some support as they reinforced the view that inflationary pressures in the US are proving difficult to fully tame. As a result, investors are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates at restrictive levels for longer.
Fed officials have repeatedly emphasised the importance of seeing sustained progress toward their inflation target before considering policy easing, a stance that continues to underpin the US currency.
Additional support for the Dollar came from developments in energy markets. Oil prices moved higher during Wednesday’s session, as traders remained doubtful that the International Energy Agency’s plan to release up to 400 million barrels of crude would fully offset supply disruptions linked to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Although Sterling lost ground against the US Dollar, it performed better against several other major currencies as markets continued to reassess expectations for Bank of England policy.
Rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs have fuelled concerns that inflation in the UK could accelerate again, prompting investors to dial back their expectations for interest rate cuts.
Where markets had previously anticipated multiple reductions in borrowing costs over the next year, many traders are now questioning whether the Bank of England will be able to lower rates at all in 2026 if price pressures intensify.
Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Bailey Speech in Focus
Remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey could provide fresh direction for the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.
Investors will be watching closely for any indication that the recent spike in energy prices might influence the central bank’s policy thinking. Should Bailey hint that inflation risks could delay or halt the Bank of England’s easing cycle, Sterling may receive a boost.
At the same time, the release of the latest US labour market figures could influence the Dollar. Stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims data may reinforce confidence in the resilience of the US economy and offer further support to the currency.
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Despite the weakness of the EURJPY pair last trading, the continuation of providing bullish momentum by the main indicators assisted in reinforcing the chances of forming bullish waves, to target 183.60 level, then to settle below %50 correction level at 183.40.
We recommend waiting for providing a new positive close above 183.40 level, to confirm its readiness to record some gains by its rally towards 184.00 and 184.25, while the failure to breach it might force the price to form new bearish waves, attempting to reach towards 182.60 then press on the extra support at 182.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.70 and 184.00
