Platinum price didn’t change anything due to its fluctuation between the levels of the current sideways track, that are represented by $1605.00, and $1525.00, which represents a key support for reducing the chances of suffering extra losses.

Note that stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum might push the price to form bullish trading, to attempt to renew the pressure on the previously mentioned barrier, to find an exit to record extra gains in the upcoming period, while breaking the support and holding below it will force it to suffer several losses that begin at $1485.00. 

The expected trading range for today is between 985.00 and 1040.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

XAU/USD Stabilizes Above $4,000 After Multi-Week Slide

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating just above the $4,000 per ounce mark following one of its sharpest corrections of 2025. After hitting an all-time high above $4,356, the metal plunged 8.7% over recent weeks, reaching an intraday low of $3,886 before recovering. The latest weekly close near $4,000.57 marks the third consecutive decline, but also the smallest trading range since mid-September — a sign that selling pressure is fading as markets digest macro and geopolitical shocks. Despite the retracement, gold remains up over 19% year-to-date, supported by relentless central bank buying, fiscal stress in major economies, and the return of the currency devaluation trade, which continues to attract investors seeking shelter from the erosion of fiat value.

Safe-Haven Flows Reignite as U.S. Shutdown Extends Beyond 5 Weeks

Persistent U.S. political paralysis and the 38-day government shutdown have revived safe-haven flows into bullion. The delay of the non-farm payrolls report and broader macro data disruptions have amplified uncertainty, pushing traders to reduce risk exposure in equities and the dollar. The CME FedWatch Tool now prices a 66% probability of a December rate cut, compared to 48% just two weeks earlier. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated to 99.55, down 0.14%, while 10-year Treasury yields eased to 4.09%, both developments supporting gold’s resilience above key support. Traders note that each time the shutdown extends past a month, gold tends to outperform equities by an average of 4.2%, reinforcing its defensive appeal during policy dysfunction.

Central Banks Accumulate Gold at Record Pace

One of the most powerful forces underpinning the market is central bank accumulation. According to the World Gold Council, sovereign institutions are on track to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold in 2025 — the fourth consecutive year exceeding that threshold. Countries including China, India, Turkey, and Singapore have expanded reserves aggressively to diversify away from the dollar. These purchases are not speculative; they are part of a long-term structural hedge against currency depreciation and sovereign debt expansion. Analysts estimate that Asian central banks alone have absorbed nearly 70% of global gold flows this year. The People’s Bank of China, for example, added 27 tons in October, bringing its total holdings to 2,270 tons, the highest in its modern history.

Currency Devaluation Trade Reawakens Amid Fiscal Strain

Strategists such as Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management emphasize that gold’s long-term bull thesis remains tied to a “slow-burning currency devaluation trade.” With U.S. fiscal deficits projected to surpass $2 trillion in 2026, investors continue rotating out of fiat and into hard assets like gold and Bitcoin. The combination of rising interest costs, surging debt issuance, and a looming wave of Treasury monetization has reignited long-duration inflation hedging. Even if the devaluation trade appears “dormant” in the short term, it remains a dominant theme in macro portfolios. As Peter Spina of GoldSeek.com notes, gold’s pullback could merely be “a calibration phase” before another explosive move — potentially to $5,000 per ounce if inflation expectations remain anchored above the Fed’s target and monetary stimulus resumes globally.

Technical Framework: Bulls Defend the 4K Line

From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD continues to respect the $4,000 psychological threshold, with buyers consistently defending the zone between $3,847 and $3,878, corresponding to the 50-day moving average and 50% retracement of the late-August rally. The latest weekly doji pattern on the chart indicates indecision, signaling that a potential exhaustion low is forming. Momentum, however, remains fragile: the RSI has retreated from overbought levels to 58, and weekly MACD readings show fading bullish momentum. Key resistance lies near $4,080 (median-line) and $4,192, representing the 61.8% retracement of the October decline. A close above $4,192 would confirm a bullish reversal, opening the path toward $4,356 and $4,553, the next Fibonacci extensions. Conversely, a sustained break below $3,847 could target $3,720, the 61.8% retracement of the August–October uptrend — a line technicians identify as the medium-term bullish invalidation level.

Global Demand Split: India’s Soft Season vs. Chinese Hoarding

Physical market trends are diverging across regions. In India, high volatility and record rupee-adjusted prices have curbed jewelry demand, forcing dealers to offer steep discounts of $30–$40 per ounce against global benchmarks. By contrast, China’s bullion appetite has strengthened following policy shifts that allowed state banks to expand import quotas. The country’s retail gold ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.4 billion in October alone, reversing three months of outflows. Beijing’s planned reform of its rare earth export licensing framework may indirectly boost domestic liquidity, further supporting gold buying among institutional and household investors. The broader Asia-Pacific demand remains robust, especially from emerging markets seeking protection against regional currency instability.

Macro Environment: Fed Pivot and Fiscal Reckoning Ahead

The upcoming Federal Reserve pivot — with markets expecting quantitative easing to resume on December 1, 2025 — could prove decisive for gold’s next major move. The policy shift, driven by slower U.S. growth and the need to fund persistent deficits, will likely weaken the dollar further while reigniting commodity inflation. Gold’s correlation with real yields has reasserted itself: every 10-basis-point decline in the U.S. 10-year TIPS yield historically lifts gold by about $25. With real rates now oscillating near 1.6%, well above post-pandemic averages, the metal retains significant headroom. Meanwhile, the World Bank projects that global government debt-to-GDP ratios will exceed 102% in 2026, reinforcing gold’s role as the ultimate fiscal hedge.

Key 10-Day Close

Today’s projected close above the 10-day average at $3,978 marks the first such occurrence since the line flipped from support to resistance on October 21. This development signals improving short-term demand and raises odds for a continued push toward the 20-day average, currently $4,082 and range-bound over the past week.

20-Day Resistance Outlook

The 20-day average has traded sideways recently, making gold’s reaction to it key in the current environment. A rally into $4,082 is expected to encounter selling pressure, potentially triggering a bearish reversal that retests recent lows as support—consistent with the broader consolidation phase.

A drop below Friday’s $3,974 low would flash weakness and target the interim swing low at $3,929. Further downside exposes the recent swing low at $3,886, now increasingly significant with the rising 50-day average at $3,878 converging nearby.

Deeper Support Confluence

The 50% retracement at $3,846 aligns closely with the 50-day line and $3,886 zone. Watch for a potential undercut-and-run scenario: a brief violation of the prior swing low followed by swift recovery and renewed strength—classic false breakdown behavior.

50-Day Significance

The 50-day average has not been tested as support since gold reclaimed it in the second half of August, marking the start of the latest rally leg. An eventual pullback to this level remains anticipated and would represent a healthy development for the bull trend, especially after the 20-day already failed as support.

Outlook

Short-term strengthening via the 10-day close supports a probe toward the $4,082 20-day average, where a bearish response is possible. Failure to hold $3,974 opens the path to $3,929–$3,886, with the 50-day/50% confluence at $3,846–$3,878 as the high-probability bounce zone. A false breakdown there could catalyze the next upside leg; sustained weakness below flips the focus to lower prices.

Gold (XAU/USD) Holds Near $3,998 as Policy Shifts and Fed Uncertainty Define Market Mood

Gold hovered near $3,998 per ounce, steadying after a volatile week marked by China’s new tax oversight, U.S. silver-tariff discussions, and mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to clarify its policy stance amid a historic government shutdown. The metal has moved within its tightest range since September, fluctuating only about $100 high-to-low, and sits roughly 8.6% below October’s record high of $4,381 per ounce. This consolidation reflects a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a firmer dollar that continues to test investors’ conviction.

China’s Gold VAT Crackdown and Real-Time Market Surveillance

Beijing’s newly announced value-added tax reform marked one of the most aggressive structural changes to China’s bullion market in over a decade. The new rule requires banks and gold retailers to link their systems directly to the national tax network, giving authorities real-time visibility over all bullion transactions. The Shanghai Gold Exchange closed the week near ¥919 per gram, unchanged from the prior week, suggesting stability despite tighter regulation. Analysts inside China note that the move formally separates gold’s dual role as a financial asset and consumer product, improving transparency while likely raising costs for jewelry manufacturers and retail buyers. The World Gold Council anticipates this change will temper short-term jewelry sales but strengthen long-term investment flows as households treat gold more like a financial asset.

U.S. Strategic Response: Silver Declared “Critical Mineral” Amid Tariff Threats

Across the Pacific, the U.S. Geological Survey added silver to its 2025 “critical minerals” list, setting the stage for potential Section 232 import tariffs under national-security provisions. The move aligns silver with copper and metallurgical coal in Washington’s campaign to secure domestic supply chains. Traders fear that if tariffs materialize, they could distort global bullion trade by redirecting silver flows away from U.S. refiners. Yet, despite the political noise, silver (XAG/USD) held near $48.25 per ounce, about 10.8% below last month’s record peak above $54, while gold (XAU/USD) maintained composure around $3,995.

Tight Trading Range Reflects Market Equilibrium

The narrowing volatility band highlights a temporary equilibrium between bulls and bears. On one side, risk-averse investors continue allocating to gold as the shutdown delays key data releases; on the other, a resilient U.S. dollar and mildly higher Treasury yields cap momentum. The 10-year yield rose slightly to 4.089%, while the Dollar Index (DXY) edged up to 99.81, trimming some speculative positions in the metal. Still, total daily gold volume averaged $67.2 billion, showing strong institutional participation even in a sideways tape.

Fed Policy Standoff and Rate-Cut Probability Reset

The macro driver remains the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate cut now stands at 67%, down from 90% earlier in the month, after the Challenger report revealed 153,074 job cuts in October—triple September’s total and the worst October reading since 2003. With official employment data frozen by the shutdown, private reports have become the only guidepost for policymakers. The uncertainty around inflation and labor conditions amplifies gold’s appeal as a non-yielding hedge against both monetary missteps and macro stagnation.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance for XAU/USD

Spot gold (XAU/USD) trades comfortably above its 50-day moving average of $3,878.37, preserving a short-term bullish bias. Primary support sits at $3,928.68 and $3,886.46, while the broader floor remains the $3,846.50 pivot. A breakout above $4,046.60 would open the door to the next resistance band at $4,133.95–$4,192.36, an area of dense option open interest and prior selling pressure. Conversely, a decisive close below $3,846 would negate the uptrend and trigger momentum-based liquidation toward $3,750.

Safe-Haven Demand Anchored by Shutdown and Stagflation Risk

The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, now the longest in modern history, has paralyzed federal data collection, leaving traders without official benchmarks. This “information blackout” reinforces gold’s role as a crisis proxy, especially with market chatter of stagflation returning to the fore. Inflation remains sticky even as output slows, and with the Fed’s real policy rate near neutral, the metal benefits from diminishing real yields. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee remarked that the lack of data “accentuates the need to move cautiously,” effectively signaling a pause. Investors have translated that caution into renewed allocation toward tangible assets.

Mining and Production Snapshot: Margin Resilience Across the Sector

Gold’s stability near $4,000 per ounce continues to deliver record cash flow for producers. Perseus Mining Ltd. reported $837 million in cash and bullion with zero debt as of September 2025, ensuring flexibility to hedge at favorable levels. The company’s management maintains downside protection via put options, securing margins even if prices dip toward $3,000.
Integra Resources Corp., operating the Florida Canyon heap-leach mine, guides 70,000–75,000 ounces for 2025 and channels proceeds to its DeLamar Project, now entering feasibility. Its long-term plan values production at a conservative $2,175/oz assumption, rendering the current market near $4,000 almost double its base case.
Cabral Gold Ltd. advances construction in Brazil’s Cuiú Cuiú District, targeting 25,000 ounces annually at an AISC of $1,210/oz. At today’s prices, that translates to nearly $3,000 profit per ounce or $70 million annual free cash flow on just $37.7 million in initial capex—a margin profile unmatched in the junior space.
Meanwhile, U.S. Gold Corp. progresses its CK Gold Project, fully permitted and designed for a gold-to-copper revenue split of roughly 80/20. Its February 2025 PFS estimated AISC at $937/oz, positioning it as one of North America’s most efficient upcoming mines.

Currency Dynamics and Cost Curves

A stronger dollar pressures global miners that report in local currencies but can also generate offsetting benefits. Serabi Gold and Cabral Gold in Brazil benefit from a weaker real, which boosts local-currency revenue while tempering input inflation. Serabi expects 44,000–47,000 ounces in 2025 with steady margins, citing favorable FX trends. Chief Executive Mike Hodgson** noted that “the combination of high gold prices and real-to-dollar dynamics has created an economic tailwind for Brazilian operations.”

Emerging Producers and Operational Leverage

North American newcomers are leveraging existing infrastructure to scale efficiently. i-80 Gold Corp. in Nevada, now transitioning from developer to mid-tier producer, recorded 8,400 ounces sold in Q2 2025 at an average realized price of $3,301, generating $28 million in revenue. As it refurbishes the Lone Tree Autoclave, expected online by 2028, recovery rates could rise from 55–60% to 92%, nearly doubling operating leverage. In Ontario, West Red Lake Gold Mines successfully restarted the Madsen Mine, producing 12,800 ounces in Q1-Q3 2025 with ambitions to exceed 100,000 ounces by 2029.

Macro-Mining Synergy: U.S. Strategic Mineral Policy

The March 2025 Executive Order on mineral independence has accelerated permitting in the U.S., reducing project timelines for Nevada-based developers. This domestic push may offset global trade disruptions caused by China’s tax reform or potential silver tariffs. The synergy between policy and commodity demand underpins a long-term bullish structure for gold: while tariffs might distort short-term pricing, they indirectly validate bullion’s strategic value as a secure asset class.

Comparative Market Context: Other Precious Metals

Broader precious metals mirrored gold’s consolidation. Platinum (XPT/USD) fell 2% to $1,557/oz, palladium (XPD/USD) slid 4.6% below $1,400/oz, and silver (XAG/USD) stabilized near $48.25/oz. Liquidity shortages in London’s white-metal markets have widened spreads, but the relative strength of gold underscores its dominance as the default store of value.

Technical Momentum and Market Positioning

On the chart, momentum indicators suggest accumulation near current levels. The Relative Strength Index holds near 54, neutral but tilting positive, while stochastic oscillators remain above oversold territory. Open interest in COMEX gold futures has risen 5% week-on-week, implying fresh long exposure rather than liquidation. Options skews show growing demand for upside strikes around $4,100–$4,200, indicating traders still expect an eventual breakout once the Fed path clarifies.

Investor Sentiment: Correction or Calibration?

Institutional flows show rotation rather than exit. Gold ETFs saw modest inflows this week after two consecutive weeks of redemptions, hinting that large investors view the sub-$4,000 region as an attractive accumulation zone. With the Dollar Index capped below 100 and real yields near 1.7%, the opportunity cost of holding gold remains historically moderate. The key narrative has shifted from inflation hedge to policy-risk hedge—gold now functions as insurance against data opacity, fiscal uncertainty, and political intervention.

Final Outlook: Tactical Consolidation, Structural Bull Market

The structure of XAU/USD remains robust. Prices above $3,878 preserve the bullish bias, and safe-haven flows continue amid policy paralysis. With supply from key mining regions steady, and demand from central banks and ETFs stabilizing, the market appears positioned for another upward leg once macro clarity returns.

Verdict: BUY / BULLISH — The data justifies a Buy stance on Gold (XAU/USD). The confluence of tightening U.S. labor conditions, rate-cut repricing, and structural geopolitical risk reinforces the case for holding and expanding gold exposure. Short-term consolidation between $3,920–$4,050 is likely, but a confirmed breakout above $4,046.60 targets $4,192–$4,250, while downside risk remains cushioned above $3,846.

That’s TradingNEWS

Core Resistance Cluster

For the second consecutive session, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.41 has capped upside, just shy of the 161.8% projected target of the rising ABCD pattern at $4.45. This creates a defined $4.41–$4.45 resistance band. The extended top channel line runs straight through the heart of the current four-day consolidation range as well, adding another indicator showing of overhead supply.

Four-Day Top Formation

The intraday reversal today strongly favors an inside day close heading into next week, fully contained within a developing four-day topping pattern. A drop below Friday’s $4.27 low would flash immediate weakness, but a bearish reversal only confirms on a decisive break beneath the four-day range support at $4.18.

Underlying Demand Strength

Natural gas continues to demonstrate resilience near the highs while repeatedly challenging resistance, reflecting sustained buyer interest. This dynamic raises the possibility that one more push higher could materialize before any pullback unfolds. And when correction does arrive, it may remain shallow and short-lived. This is not a prediction, merely a scenario to keep in view.

Bullish Continuation Trigger

Strength reasserts on any rally above the $4.42 trend high established Friday, with the $4.45 ABCD completion as the immediate next objective. A clean, decisive advance through $4.45 would signal the rising trend retains momentum and may have additional upside legs ahead.

Key Downside Levels

First dynamic support arrives at the 10-day moving average, currently $4.01 and rising. Just below sits the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3.94, converging with the original rising channel top line—previously resistance and now an untested potential support zone following the recent breakout above it.

Outlook

The $4.41–$4.45 resistance zone holds the near-term key. Persistent failure here likely forces a deeper test of support the four-day range toward $4.18, with $4.01–$3.94 as the follow-on support cluster. A breakout above $4.45, however, validates continuation within the broader channel and opens higher targets. The inside day resolution may provide the next critical directional signal.