– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Dips as Reeves Warns of Tax Hikes

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped below the 1.3100 level to hit fresh 6-month lows near 1.3070.

GBP was undermined on Tuesday by a clear warning from Chancellor Reeves that taxes will be increased this month.

There was also increased speculation over further Bank of England rate cuts this year with Sterling also undermined by weaker equity markets.

GBP/USD Forecasts: 6-month lows

There is notable uncertainty over the dollar outlook, but GBP/USD is at risk of a slide to 1.3000.

Just after Tuesday’s European open, Chancellor Reeves delivered a very unusual pre-budget speech to set out the framework for the November 26th budget and justify the potential decisions, especially on taxes.

There was an attempt to justify higher taxes and clear evidence that Reeves will look to put pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates at a faster pace and create the conditions for lower bond yields.

There was choppy trading in UK bonds with the 10-year yield close to 2025 lows just below 4.40% before trading around 4.42%.

The FTSE 100 index traded around 1.0% lower on the day with weaker risk conditions.

According to Reeves; “As I take my decisions on both tax and spend, I will do what is necessary to protect families from high inflation and interest rates.”

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, commented, “In an unusual address ahead of this month’s Autumn Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves tried to prepare voters for tax hikes by laying out the UK’s economic challenges.”

There will be speculation of targeted measures to cut the cost of living which could include lower taxes on retail energy prices.

There is also a clear intent to get borrowing costs down with lower bond yields and further Bank of England rate cuts.

Markets are pricing in around a 35% chance of a cut this week and the Pound will be vulnerable if expectations of a cut this year continue to build.

The dollar has maintained a firm tone in global markets amid fresh uncertainty over Fed policy. The US government shutdown could also have a greater impact

MUFG commented; “There is no end in sight to the shutdown and the longer this drags on the bigger the economic implication will be.”

Markets are now pricing in around a 70% chance of a further rate cut at the December meeting, but here is a high degree of uncertainty.

MUFG added; “Powell likely wants to avoid appearing as though markets are forcing the Fed to cut. We still argue that the labour market warrants more rate cuts, but the risk is the Fed skips meetings ahead.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on November 04, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1480 – 1.1410 – 1.1350
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1600 – 1.1680 – 1.1770

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1370.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

In light of persistent downward pressure, the EUR/USD exchange rate appears poised to test the psychological resistance level of 1.14 in the coming days. According to trusted trading company platforms, the Euro seems exposed to further short-term weakness against the US Dollar, and any rallies are likely to be met with renewed selling interest. As the chart shows, gains are capped by a downward trend line, and we do not rule out any minor rise that returns the market to that line, in line with the trading pattern since mid-September.

Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to a level of 35, which supports the bears and aligns with firm downward momentum. Last week saw the exchange rate fall below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating increasing bearish momentum.

The downward target we are monitoring is the 1.14 support, which is a significant horizontal line that has influenced market movement since April, acting as both resistance and support since then.

More recently, this level halted the EUR/USD selling wave in late July, which preceded a sharp rebound. Interestingly, the 1.14 support is also the 200-day EMA level, meaning it is truly a critical level. If it holds, the broader, multi-month neutral phase will remain intact, and a rebound will follow. However, a breakdown here could confirm the end of the uptrend that started at 1.04 in late 2024 and peaked at 1.1918 on September 17.

The Future of Interest Rates Impacts Currency Prices

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision last week was not a significant event, as the central bank was content with its success in pushing inflation to its 2.0% target and found no reason to provide guidance that might excite the markets. With the ECB achieving a rare accomplishment of its kind, the responsibility for managing their economies falls on other central banks. For its part, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week and suggested it might do so again before the end of the year, although it would not provide a convincing commitment to such a move.

Trading Advice:

The EUR/USD downtrend is not over. Therefore, wait for a further decline before considering buying, but do so without risk and by diversifying your trades to avoid reacting to any currency price movements.

According to Forex market trading, this rejection helped boost the US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s decision, and we are still experiencing this momentum. This week is usually important in terms of data, as the first Friday of the new month is typically dedicated to the crucial US jobs report. However, since US politicians seem content with the current partial government shutdown, we will not receive any official statistics this week.

This means that private sector reports must take the lead. With this in mind, we await the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) surveys for the private sector of the US economy in October. Surveys had indicated that the economy was on the verge of stagnation in September, and confirmation of this is likely to strengthen the likelihood of the Fed making further rate cuts, which would hurt the US Dollar’s performance.

However, any signs of economic recovery would keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines and support the dollar. The economic calendar includes the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) due on Tuesday (consensus forecast 49.2) and the services PMI due on Thursday (consensus forecast 51.0). In this regard, a preliminary report from Lloyds Bank indicates that “particular attention will be paid in the report to employment indicators, which may point to further weakness in the labor market, and to the price components, which remain elevated and will be closely watched for any signs of a slowdown.”

Ultimitaly, any slowdown in the data could help the EUR/USD pair halt its selling and potentially pave the way for a recovery.

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Created on November 04, 2025

• The US dollar held steady against the Japanese yen on Monday near the key ¥154 level.
• With strong support near ¥153 and ¥150, buyers remain in control as interest rate differentials continue to favor the dollar.

The US dollar has been fairly quiet against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday, as we hover around the crucial ¥154 level. The ¥154 level has stabilized the market over the last couple of days after we had seen the Thursday session jump to the upside. Short-term pullbacks offer the opportunity of buying the US dollar, especially near the ¥153 level.

Longer-Term Traders Use Dips as Entries

With this being the case, this is a market that I think will end up being an opportunity for longer-term traders to take advantage of the interest rate differential, as the Bank of Japan is almost certainly going to be stuck with loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, the FOMC press conference suggested that there may be no interest rate cuts in December—it just wasn’t done yet, even though many traders had anticipated the Federal Reserve would cut rates multiple times.

This doesn’t mean that it won’t happen, but looking at the overall situation at the moment, it’s likely that we will continue to see plenty of value hunters on dips. If we were to break down below the ¥152 level, then I think at this point we could test the 50-day EMA, which sits right above the ¥150 level. For me, the ¥150 level is the absolute floor in the trend.

At this point, I think we’ve got a situation where we could go looking to the ¥155 level. Ultimately, this is a market that has been bullish for a while, and I think short-term opportunities will continue to present themselves with pullbacks. The interest rate differential allows traders to take advantage of dips and get paid at the end of every day while waiting for the longer-term trade to play out.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 04, 2025

• The euro traded around the 1.15 level on Monday, showing indecision as resistance held firm.
• I remain bearish, expecting potential declines toward 1.14 or even 1.11, with rallies likely to face resistance near the 50-day EMA around 1.1650.

The euro went back and forth during the course of the early hours of Monday as we are hanging around the 1.15 level. The 1.15 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that has been both support and resistance previously. If we break down from there, then the market is likely to go looking at the 1.14 level.

The 1.14 level is an area that’s been important previously and an area where the 200-day EMA currently finds itself. With this being said, I think that being violated to the downside really opens up the downside for the euro, perhaps down to the 1.11 level and beyond. Short-term rallies, I look to sell, and I do believe that the 50-day EMA probably continues to be resistant with the 1.1650 level. Any jump at this point, I think, you just have to look at with suspicion.

FOMC Not Clear

After all, the FOMC interest rate decision—and perhaps more importantly, the press conference—suggests that maybe the FOMC or the Federal Reserve won’t be cutting rates in December. We don’t know yet, but it’s not a given, and that really kind of stunned the market. It’s worth noting that this all started during the September FOMC press conference.

We have dropped pretty significantly since then, losing about 450 pips. All things being equal, short-term rallies, I think, continue to swim upstream. We had broken below the 50-day EMA, and it has offered significant resistance multiple times. And now that we are below that, I think we may eventually try to get to this 200-day EMA.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 04, 2025

• The British Pound opened on Monday slightly lower, maintaining a bearish tone.
• With price action below both major EMAs, I expect further weakness toward 1.30 or even 1.28, as dollar strength and BoE policy concerns weigh on sentiment.

The British Pound has gapped a little bit lower during the open here on Monday as we continue to see an overall negative bias to the market. The 1.31 level is an area that I think a lot of people will be watching for the short term, but if we break down below there, then I think the British Pound drops rather significantly.

The technical analysis is fairly bearish now that we are significantly below the 200-day EMA, and the 50-day EMA is starting to drop toward the 200-day EMA. With that being said, I think we have a situation where traders are going to be more of a “fade the rally” type of group, and therefore, any type of rally that shows signs of exhaustion, I’m going to start shorting. If we break down below the 1.31 level, then the 1.30 level gets targeted, possibly the 1.28 level.

I Don’t Want to Own the Pound

I have no interest in buying the British Pound—not necessarily because I hate the British Pound—it’s just that the US dollar is starting to strengthen against pretty much everything out there, including the British Pound. The British Pound has been a little softer than some of its contemporaries over the last week or so, and as a result, it’s worth noting that traders out there are starting to think that perhaps the Bank of England is going to have to loosen monetary policy. With that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see the pound suffer, especially against the US dollar, after the FOMC press conference suggested that we don’t necessarily count on an interest rate cut in December coming out of Washington.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.