December arabica coffee (KCZ25) today is up +0.75 (+0.20%), and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) is down -134 (-3.18%).

Coffee prices are mixed today, with robusta sharply lower at a 6-week low.   Tight ICE coffee inventories are supporting coffee prices.  However, robusta retreated today as the remnants of Typhoon Ragasa are forecast to miss the coffee-growing regions of Vietnam, easing concerns that heavy wind and rain could damage the country’s coffee crops.

The 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil have led to a sharp drawdown in ICE coffee inventories, a bullish factor for coffee prices.  ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 17.5-month low of 601,717 bags on Wednesday.  ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1.75-month low of 6,464 lots last Friday.  American buyers are voiding new contracts for purchases of Brazilian coffee beans due to the 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil, thereby tightening US supplies, as about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

On Tuesday, arabica coffee prices fell to a 1-month low as rain in Brazil eased dry conditions.  Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia stated that rainfall in Minas Gerais will persist for the remainder of the week.

A bumper robusta coffee crop in Vietnam is bearish for prices.  Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to climb +6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags, a 4-year high.  Also, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported September 8 that Vietnam’s Jan-Aug 2025 coffee exports were up +7.8% y/y to 1.141 MMT.  Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Last Tuesday, Dec arabica coffee posted a contract high and nearest-futures (U25) arabica posted a 7-month high, while robusta climbed to a 3-week high.  Coffee prices rose due to a lack of rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions ahead of the critical flowering period for coffee trees.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 10.5 mm of rain during the week ended September 20, only 73% of the historical average.  The month of September is the critical flowering period for Brazil’s coffee trees.

Coffee prices also garnered support last Tuesday after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) increased the likelihood of a La Niña weather system in the southern hemisphere from October to December to 71%, which could bring excessive dry weather to Brazil and harm the 2026/27 coffee crop.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee.

Coffee prices found support after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate on September 4 by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags from a May forecast of 37.0 million bags.  Conab also reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags, from a May estimate of 55.7 million bags.

In a bullish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on September 3 that global July coffee exports declined -1.6% year-over-year (y/y) to 11.6 million bags, and cumulative October-July coffee exports declined -0.3% y/y to 115.615 million bags.

Reduced exports from Brazil are supporting prices.  On August 6, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT.  In related bullish news, exporter group Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in July fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags.  Cecafe reported that July arabica exports fell -21% y/y, while robusta exports plunged -49% y/y.  Cecafe said Brazil’s July coffee exports fell -28% to 2.7 million bags, and that coffee shipments during Jan-July fell -21% to 22.2 million bags.

Harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for coffee prices after Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Wednesday that the harvest among its members was 98.9% complete as of September 12.  Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter group.  

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags.  FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags.  FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25.  However, Volcafe is projecting a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
 

On the date of publication,

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Support Levels

The 20-day average emerged as key support after Tuesday’s sharp drop breached the 10-day line. Since late August, gold has leaned on the 10-day average for dynamic support, but the top rising channel line, tested at $4,066 today, now joins the 20-day as a critical floor. Holding here keeps the bullish structure intact.

Trade Setup

The pullback remains mild, and Wednesday’s hammer at the 20-day line hints at a potential reversal. A breakout above $4,161—Wednesday’s high—would trigger the hammer, likely reclaim the 10-day average and target Tuesday’s wide $4,080-$4,375 range. Such a move signals shifting momentum, with recent highs back in play.

Weekly Context

With one session left, the weekly chart shows limited damage—a higher weekly low and slightly higher high suggest resilience. Tuesday’s aggressive selloff, however, implies consolidation within its $4,080-$4,375 range may precede a clear advance. The 20-day support test flags a possible bottom, but time may be needed to solidify gains.

Outlook

Gold’s pause at $4,039 support sets up either sideways consolidation or a bounce-and-reverse. A close above $4,161 fuels bullish hopes toward $4,375, while sub-$4,039 risks deeper tests. The weekly pattern leans slightly bullish if $4,066 holds. Watch today’s close—breakout signals strength, but Tuesday’s range could cap near-term moves.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Resistance Zone

A $3.55-$3.59 resistance range, defined by weekly highs in three of the past four weeks, includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.55 and the nearby 200-day moving average at $3.46. While no breakout above $3.59 has occurred, recent strength suggests improving demand, hinting at a potential push through if momentum rebuilds after this pullback.

Trade Setup

Despite resistance, the rising near-term uptrend shows promise for a $3.59 breakout, establishing a higher swing high and confirming continuation. An initial target at $3.71 aligns with a rising ABCD pattern, matching prior upswing magnitude, and may test the 25% extended top rising channel line. The rally from August’s $2.89 low mirrors earlier sharp advances. Strength was shown by a reclaim of the channel centerline, 20-day average, long-term uptrend line, and downtrend line, with three days partially above the 200-day average signaling vigor, though unsustainable so far.

Support Levels

A break below today’s $3.31 low would breach the downtrend line, a minor bearish signal targeting the 20-day average at $3.27, currently rising. This level becomes critical to gauge if buyers can defend the uptrend’s structure or if deeper weakness emerges.

Outlook

The $3.39 close decides the day—below it confirms pullback momentum toward $3.27, above it keeps breakout hopes alive. The $3.55-$3.59 zone remains the hurdle for bulls aiming at $3.71. Watch today’s action: strength preserves the uptrend, but a downtrend line break signals caution until support firms up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum price ended the bearish corrective attack by targeting $1490.00 level, to form strong bullish rebound by its rally towards $1633.00, attempting to reduce the effect of the intraday bearish pressure on the current period.

We couldn’t confirm activating the positive track until providing new positive close above$1605.00 to ease the mission of targeting some positive stations that are located near $1665.00 and $1695.00, while the decline below $1605.00 will force the price to form new bearish waves, attempting to reach $1525.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1570.00 and $1665.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track.