200-Day and Channel Top

This marks the third test of the 200-day average this month, with prior attempts sparking a double top and bearish correction. Today’s high also stalled at the top parallel line of a small rising trend channel, extended 25% (dashed blue line). Resistance at this confluence isn’t surprising — momentum surged from the recent $2.89 swing low, but the lower high relative to October’s earlier peaks hints at potential fatigue. A brief pullback or consolidation would be healthy if buyers aim to hold the reins.

Support and Pullback Risks

The 20-day moving average at $3.22 stands as key dynamic support if tested, but yesterday’s bullish conviction suggests buyers could avoid this level if they maintain control. Weakness would first show on a drop below today’s $3.36 low, challenging the rally’s staying power. The lower high at $3.50, paired with the significant resistance zone, leans bearish short-term unless momentum shifts.

Upside Triggers and Targets

A decisive rally and close above $3.50 would affirm the advance, but clearing the prior $3.55 swing low adds confidence. For a true bullish reversal, prices must surpass the $3.59 swing high, igniting a third upswing in the rising channel and signaling robust demand.

Outlook: Breakout or Breather?

The $3.47-$3.50 zone is make-or-break—clear it for bullish confirmation, or falter for a pullback to $3.22. Watch today’s close: above $3.43 keeps buyers in play, but sub-$3.36 flags weakness. The channel and 200-day line hold the keys — sustained strength needs $3.59, or consolidation may cool this hot run.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Front month copper traded at $4.94 and held up well in the rout in precious metals prices. Many copper miners (often because of associated gold production) were beaten up anyway.

Today, TD Cowen was out with a report highlighting a tightening market and they boosted their 2026 price to $5.25 from $4.40 previously. They also took up their long-term price to $4.50 from $4.25/lb.

The swing has been that trouble at several major mines has taken about 5% of global supply offline. The recent run-up in copper prices came after the mudslide at Grasberg.

On September 8th, Grasberg operations in Indonesia were subject to a
massive mudflow into the mine, causing a shutdown of operations and Freeport
declaring force majeure on its contracts. A subsequent announcement from Freeport
later in the month revealed preliminary impacts suggesting a production impact of
roughly 200kt and 270kt Cu in Q4/25 and 2026, respectively, from the world’s
second-largest copper mine (~3.4% total mined supply in 2024). Further disruptions
this year include the seismic event at Kamoa-Kakula (~200kt), ramp-up difficulties at
QB (~100kt), and El Teniente’s mine collapse (~48kt), which when combined represent
~2% of global supply.

Prices have been consolidating in the $4.90 to $5.20 range, which is near the top end of all-time highs.

Looking ahead, TD Cowen sees a 222kt deficit in 2026, which they warn could be conservative.

Longer term, lower production from mines entering mature stages of their mine life
along with the lack of greenfield investments imply that a larger copper price is
inevitable to incentivize development and support growing demand

So far this year, copper demand has been stronger than anticipated, with Wood Mackenzie now seeing 3.7% growth. The swing factor is often Chinese growth and that’s held up better than feared. In the years ahead, power generation/transmission, AI datacenters and greening the economy could be massive tailwinds.

Note that the US appears to be scrambling for copper supplies.

Key Facts

How Far Will Gold Prices Rise This Year?

Bank of America analysts raised their price forecast for gold earlier this month, becoming the first major bank to give gold a $5,000 per ounce price target for 2026. HSBC, noting it remains bullish on the metal, gave a more conservative outlook last week after raising its average 2025 price target for gold to $3,950 from $3,125. Economists were previously bearish on gold’s value: JPMorgan in February set a $2,950 price target for the end of the year, while Citigroup and Goldman Sachs set $3,000 targets for year’s end and by the middle of 2026, respectively.

How Far Will Silver Prices Rise This Year?

Bank of America similarly raised its price target for silver, lifting its outlook for the metal to $65 an ounce (it was trading at just under $48 on Tuesday afternoon). Analysts warned of possible risks for silver, however, indicating prices may become volatile as liquidity grows and demand falls, despite the metal remaining favored among investors. Goldman Sachs wrote last week it’s likely silver prices will continue to rise during a government shutdown and expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which has signaled officials were divided over whether to lower rates two more times this year.

Key Background

Metals have surged so far this year during periods of “elevated” economic and policy uncertainty, headlined by President Donald Trump’s widespread tariffs and growing inflation, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thompson. Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio has previously called on new investors to jump on gold and other precious metals while other assets, like equites, perform poorly during these periods, claiming metal is “the one asset that does very well.” Silver has climbed because inventory in the metal’s global trading hub, London, has disappeared this year, according to Greenland Investment Management’s Anant Jania, who told Bloomberg there is “no liquidity available currently.” Silver and gold are often tied together and are favored as safe-haven assets, but Goldman Sachs analysts said they expect “more volatility and downside risk” for silver than for gold, which is backed by demand from central banks. Platinum, while also viewed as a safer investment, has risen in value because of strong demand from jewelers and automakers, analysts said.

Further Reading

ForbesSilver Selling At Record High—But Here’s Why Analysts Say Gold Is SaferBy Ty RoushForbesGold Hits $4,000 For The First Time—Here’s WhyBy Ty Roush

Natural gas price affected by the economic data, forming strong bullish rally yesterday, surpassing the resistance at $3.350 then recording big gains by reaching $4.060, to settle above $3.830 level, which forms a new support against the bullish trading.

Providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the strength of the bullish track, to expect resuming the bullish attack, to target $4.150 level reaching the next resistance near $4.280.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.900 and $4.150

Trend forecast: Bullish