The EURJPY pair resumed the bearish corrective attack in Friday’s trading, hitting some of the previously suggested targets, to form quick positive rebound to settle near 176.50, keeping the main bullish scenario that depends on the stability within the bullish channel’s levels that appears in the above image.
Note that the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators that might force the price to provide more of the sideways trading, to keep waiting for breaching 177.05 to confirm its readiness to form new bullish attack by targeting the top at 177.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 175.90 and 177.05
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
The 50-day average’s defense is a bullish signal, yet downside risks linger. Natural gas is caught in a short-term rising trend channel, contrasting with a broader declining channel. Recent highs stalled near the 200-day moving average at $3.38, aligning with the top of the falling channel, where resistance triggered a double top bearish reversal last Thursday. The rejection also coincided with the upper boundary of the rising channel, extended by 25%. A reversal from this level typically targets the channel’s lower boundary, a scenario still in play if today’s support falters.
Critical Support Zone at $2.95
Should the $3.03 low give way, a deeper support zone at $2.95 emerges as a key target. This level, projected for October 21, marks the intersection of the rising channel’s lower line and the falling quarter channel line of the larger bearish trend. Reinforcing its significance, a gap fill at $2.95 aligns with an anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at $2.98, rooted in the February 2024 lows. This convergence of technical markers makes $2.95 a high-probability floor if selling resumes.
Outlook and Key Levels
Today’s rally suggests buyers are defending $3.03, but the broader bearish channel keeps pressure on. A close above $3.09 strengthens the bullish case, while a break below $3.03 targets $2.95. Monitor today’s close for confirmation of support or renewed weakness—$3.38 resistance remains a hurdle for any sustained recovery.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate spent another week trapped below 1.15 as UK fiscal concerns offset Euro weakness tied to France’s deepening political impasse.
Foreign exchange strategists warn that, with Prime Minister Lecornu reappointed and budget gridlock unresolved, both currencies are likely to face lingering downside pressure.
GBP/EUR Forecasts: Groundhog Day for France
SocGen forecasts that the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate will weaken to 1.11 by the third quarter of 2026 on Pound vulnerability.
Credit Agricole, however, is backing gains to 1.2050 by the end of next year as the French situation contributes to Euro losses.
GBP/EUR briefly hit 3-week highs around 1.1550 during the week on Euro concerns before a dip back below 1.15 amid a lack of confidence in underlying UK fundamentals with the Pound unable to benefit from a record high for the FTSE 100 index.
French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned on Monday, but after a week of intense political intrigue, President Macron renominated him on Friday.
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There is no evidence that Lecornu can fare better this time around and faces major difficulties in passing the budget with the on-going risk that deadlock will eventually lead to fresh elections.
SocGen does note the potential for short-term Euro weakness; “The French political situation is clearly another source of concern, with policy paralysis potentially dampening growth expectations. The bond market has to digest supply, and higher French yields create headlines. Even if yield differentials are far below those we saw for peripheral bonds in 2010-2015, this all weighs on the euro.”
Credit Agricole also notes near-term Euro vulnerability; “The economic outlook of the Eurozone’s largest economy has been attracting considerable attention. In all, we think that economic uncertainty and lingering political risks in France could keep the EUR on the defensive in the very near term.”
SocGen expects weak UK growth and that Bank of England will eventually relent; “The stickiness of inflation relative to the euro zone and the US is limiting the room for manoeuvre by the BoE so decreasing the level of policy restriction to boost growth must wait. SG economics postponed the next rate cut from November to February but maintain the terminal forecast of 3.0%.”
JP Morgan noted cracks in the UK economic outlook; “With last week’s UK PMI suggesting political uncertainty is starting to creep back into the UK data, this emphasizes the negative growth-fiscal feedback loop where weaker UK growth worsens the fiscal hole which holds long-end gilt yields higher than they otherwise would be and that triggers the stagflationary reaction function in the currency.”
HSBC expects further fiscal fears; “In the UK, it seems more like mission impossible – particularly for fiscal policy. We estimate the UK Chancellor may need to find around GBP30bn of additional consolidation at the 26 November Budget – a big ‘black hole’ to fill.”
It added; “Tax rises and spending cuts will not go down well with voters and her own party. But a non-credible plan – such as assuming unrealistic tax rises and spending cuts in four or five years’ time – or even a small tweak to the fiscal targets to allow more borrowing, could alarm the bond market.”
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Monday , October 13, 2025: Analysis of euro price against the dollar EUR/USD
EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
General Trend: Bearish.
Today’s Support Points for EUR/USD: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
Today’s Resistance Points for EUR/USD: 1.1670 – 1.1750 – 1.1820.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1490, with a target of 1.1730 and a stop loss at 1.1400.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730, with a target of 1.1500 and a stop loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
Investor confidence in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset was renewed following Trump’s threat to impose harsh tariffs on China starting next month, despite the ongoing US government shutdown now in its third week. This increased sell orders on the EUR/USD pair last week, with losses extending to the 1.1542 support level, near the pair’s two-month low, before it closed the week stable around the 1.1622 level. Today, given the American holiday, the EUR/USD is expected to trade within a narrow range with a downward bias, hovering around and below the 1.1600 support level.
The current trading scenario for the EUR/USD is bearish, according to the daily chart performance on reliable trading platforms. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to a reading of 37, well below the neutral line, confirming that bears are back in control of the trend. This important technical indicator is now settling around a reading of 42, awaiting further selling pressure before heading towards oversold territory. Similarly, the MACD indicator lines are positioned downwards. There will be no opportunity for EUR/USD bulls to take control of prices without returning to and stabilizing above the 1.1800 resistance level once again.
Trading Tips:
Dear TradersUp trader, anticipate fresh selling pressure on the currency pair. Therefore, we advise against rushing to buy now and to consider doing so from stronger downward levels, but never take undue risks. Today, we may witness limited movements due to the American holiday.
EUR/USD Forecast for the Coming Months
In this regard, according to currency trading experts at Danske Bank, the euro has been subjected to renewed selling pressure amid the ongoing French political crisis, with the EUR/USD exchange rate falling to around 1.1600. In the near term, Danske Bank sees a relatively balanced outlook for the US dollar. The bank sees a potential for a weaker US dollar if the US government shutdown continues and maintains its negative long-term outlook for the dollar, with the EUR/USD pair set to rise to 1.23 in 12 months. Danske Bank notes a high degree of uncertainty in the labor market, with evidence of a sharp decline in both supply and demand.
Generally, if the main factor is supply, there would be less justification for the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates, as unemployment would not rise significantly. However, the bank has provided its interest rate forecast and now expects cuts in October and January, followed by further cuts in April and July. Morever, the bank anticipates that the shift in interest rate differentials will weaken the dollar in the medium term.
Meanwhile, the bank also expects structural factors to continue undermining the US currency as institutional demand for US assets declines.
From a broader perspective, the bank notes that the dollar’s share of global transactions has declined. Morever, it does not see its reserve status as threatened, particularly given the lack of attractive alternatives, which limits the potential for US dollar losses.
Fresh trade-war tensions between the United States and China boosted demand for Gold.
The US government shutdown continues with no agreement in sight.
XAU/USD resumed its advance after correcting extreme overbought conditions.
Spot Gold’s run into unexplored territory continues on Monday, with the bright metal overcoming the $4,100 threshold early in the American session. Multiple factors are pushing the safe-haven metal higher.
On the one hand, the United States (US) government shutdown continues, with a resolution to the stalemate still out of the picture. The country is celebrating a holiday, Columbus Day, which further delays any agreement in the Senate. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump revived trade-war concerns late on Friday, accusing China of “strange” behaviour and threatening fresh, massive tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump was scheduled to speak with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in the coming days, but the talks have been postponed.
Right now, the US President’s attention is on the Middle East. The first stages of a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas are underway. Hamas has freed the remaining hostages, hostilities have been interrupted, and people are slowly returning to Gaza. The peace could be fragile, but it is a major Trump victory.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair is bullish. In the daily chart, technical indicators resumed their advance within overbought levels after correcting extreme conditions, still reflecting that buyers are in control. Meanwhile, the pair develops far above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) far above the longer ones and at around $3,841.
The near-term picture is pretty similar. In the 4-hour chart, the Momentum indicator aims firmly north within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator advances at around 70, although with a limited upward slope. Meanwhile, the XAU/USD pair extends its recovery above all its moving averages, with a mildly bullish 20 SMA currently at around $4,026.
EUR/JPY gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 176.50 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a prevailing bullish bias as the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern.
The short-term price momentum is stronger as the EUR/JPY cross remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting that bullish bias is strengthening.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may find its initial resistance at the record high of 177.94, which was recorded on October 9. A break above this level would prompt the currency cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around the psychological level of 179.00.
The immediate support lies at the ascending channel’s lower boundary around the psychological level of 176.00, followed by the nine-day EMA of 175.79. A break below this crucial support zone would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the 50-day EMA at 173.50, followed by the six-week low of 172.14, which was recorded on September 9.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.27%
0.19%
0.24%
0.06%
-0.16%
0.25%
0.33%
EUR
-0.27%
-0.08%
0.02%
-0.23%
-0.34%
-0.04%
0.05%
GBP
-0.19%
0.08%
0.14%
-0.15%
-0.27%
0.05%
0.10%
JPY
-0.24%
-0.02%
-0.14%
-0.25%
-0.46%
0.03%
0.03%
CAD
-0.06%
0.23%
0.15%
0.25%
-0.25%
0.21%
0.25%
AUD
0.16%
0.34%
0.27%
0.46%
0.25%
0.33%
0.38%
NZD
-0.25%
0.04%
-0.05%
-0.03%
-0.21%
-0.33%
0.05%
CHF
-0.33%
-0.05%
-0.10%
-0.03%
-0.25%
-0.38%
-0.05%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Silver (XAG/USD) found resistance at fresh four-year highs right above $51.70 and retreated sharply during Mondfday’s European morning session. The metal found support at the 50..15 area to pare some losses, but is struggling to remain above $51.00 at the time of writing.
The fundamental context is supportive for precious metals, which rallied during the Asian session with investors looking for alternative assets as the US trade rift on rare earths threatens to lead to a full-blown trade war, again.
Furthermore, the US Government shutdown enters its third week without prospects of a solution in sight, and with investors pricing in a Fed rate cut later this month and high chances of another one in December.
Technical analysis: The bullish trend remains in play with $52.00 on focus
Silver maintains its bullish trend intact, with price action moving within an ascending channel from mid-September lows. The trend looks well overextended, and these structures tend to lead to corrections, but that option seems highly unlikely in the current circumstances.
Technical indicators show a significant bullish pressure, with immediate resistance at the intra-day highs of $51.70. Further up the ascending channel’s top, in the area of 52.00 and the 161.8 Fibonacci extension of the October 9 reversal, at $52.90, are plausible targets.
So far, pullbacks are attracting buyers, and the pair seems to have significant support in the area around the $50.00 psychological level, where bears were capped earlier today. Further down, the base of the ascending channel is in the vicinity of $49.55.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The British Pound has gone back and forth during trading here on Friday as we are testing the 200-day EMA. This is a market that I think you will have to continue to look at through the prism of negative, but bouncing from the 200-day EMA is not exactly a huge surprise, I think we could see a little bit of technical uh momentum come back into the market.
I don’t know if it sticks, but I do think you’ve got a situation where traders are going to at least acknowledge this indicator. A rally at this point in time probably opens up a move to the 1.34 level at best, and then we probably roll over there.
On a Move Higher
Now, if we can break above there, the 50-day EMA would be your next target, followed by 1.36. If we turn around and break below the 200-day EMA, then the 1.32 level gets targeted next. Anything below there, then I think you have serious problems with the pound. But more importantly, the US dollar will probably strengthen against almost everything. Remember, the British pound has been one of the better performers even when it was falling against the US dollar, it was falling at a slower pace than many of its contemporary. So, when you look at this chart, you can see that we are in a range that had been important back in early 2022. And the question now is, do we need to pull back in order to find value? I think that’s likely. But I at this point in time still think we will go lower, just based on the way we’ve acted since the FOMC press conference. Remember the dollar was going to be eviscerated and we’ve seen a gain in the dollar of about 450 pips in this pair.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Sell gold from the resistance level of $4110, with a target of $3900 and a stop loss at $4140.
Buy gold from the support level of $3950, with a target of $4060 and a stop loss at $3920.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
Gold bulls have once again stabilized above the historic psychological resistance of $4000 per ounce, following a period of limited profit-taking sales after gold prices reached an all-time high of $4059 per ounce. According to gold trading platforms, the recent sell-off did not extend beyond the $3944 per ounce level. Moreover, the previous week’s trading closed with the price stable around the $4018 per ounce resistance.
A positive start is expected for the gold price in the new week amid renewed fears of a global economic recession, driven by the continuing US government shutdown and the revival of the trade conflict between the United States and China. This follows a threat from Trump at the end of last week to impose harsh customs tariffs on Chinese imports starting next month, which increases investor demand for safe-haven assets, led by gold.
Will gold prices rise in the coming days?
According to gold analysts, the outlook remains positive for the gold index to continue its record-breaking bullish breakouts, especially with stability above the $4000 per ounce resistance. As mentioned before, gold investors will remain focused on the factors driving the market’s gains, while ignoring technical indicators reaching overbought levels.
XAU/USD (Daily Chart)
According to commodity market experts, short-term technical indicators suggest the possibility of a correction if prices fall below the $3950 per ounce support level. However, looking ahead, developments related to the US government shutdown and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could affect the near-term outlook for gold. In general, if US political risks remain a key theme, this could push the gold price index above the $4000 level, with the prospect of interest rate cuts reinforcing the upward trend.
Regarding factors influencing the gold market: with the fragility of peace in the Middle East, renewed drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, the ongoing US government shutdown, a weak US dollar, and another interest rate cut at the end of the month, the direction for gold is clear. Carefully, do not miss the opportunity to consistently buy gold.
Dear reader, keep in mind that long-term cash flows are flowing into gold, and buyers are reluctant to relinquish control, despite the gold price rising by more than 52% this year. Even at these historically high levels of overbought gold, the gold market is gaining renewed momentum from the retail market, which was absent at previous peaks, such as in 2011.
Gold bullion has boomed in recent months, supported by concerns about inflation expectations and the outlook for major currencies. These factors include the US dollar, which has weakened due to concerns that US President Trump is reversing the post-war economic order. Geopolitical tensions, including the war between Russia and Ukraine, are also boosting gold prices.
Trading Tips:
Dear TradersUp trader, we advise buying gold on every significant price dip. Ultimately, Renewed global trade and geopolitical tensions provide permanent support for gold’s gains.
The US dollar broke down significantly against the Japanese yen during trading on Friday, as the ¥153 level has offered a significant amount of resistance, and perhaps gravity came back into the picture. That being said, we also have a little bit of an exacerbation of trade tensions between the United States and the Chinese, and therefore a little bit of a “risk off move” made sense.
In other words, people started running to the safety of the Japanese yen, but I also would argue that the market was overdone to begin with, and we were heading into the weekend.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is obviously very bullish, as we gapped to the upside and break the ¥149 level, only to turn around, pulled back to show signs of support, only to turn around and show signs of strength as we just took off to the upside. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think at this point in time, we pull back it’s going to end up being a buying opportunity once everything settles down. I’ve been saying all week how we need to find some type of reason to start buying again, and the easiest way to get that reason is to see a lower price.
The ¥149 level underneath could be important again, and I’d be very interested in seeing this pair pull back to that level so that we can start buying. The size of the candlestick is rather large and had wiped out the previous 2 trading sessions. Ultimately, this is a market that I am looking for an opportunity to start buying, but at this point in time the lesson you wanted to do was to “chase the trade.” By doing that, it opens up the possibility of taking massive losses, and I have been saying for days that a huge stop loss would be necessary if you try to get involved. We got a little bit more in the way of value, but not enough to start putting money to work quite yet.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
