Natural gas price activated with the main indicators’ positivity, breaching the resistance at $3.290 level, to settle within the main bullish channel’s levels, achieving some gains by reaching 3.365.
Forming main support at $3.280 level, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, we expect forming a new bullish rally to surpass $3.410 level, to target the next station at 3.350.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.300 and $3.530
The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Tuesday to reach towards the 149 yen level but then pulled back significantly to break below the 200 day EMA at least for part of the session. The 50 day EMA also offer support. So now that we have, it has shown itself to be a little bit more resilient. I think you’ve got a situation where traders just aren’t willing to go too deep into the market as the non-farm payroll uh comes out on Friday.
That being said, I think you still have to favor the upside due to the swap differential. The interest rate differential still favors the US dollar regardless, and if we can break above the 149 yen level, I think we have a real shot at going to the 150 yen level, possibly even 151 yen. Anything about that then becomes buy and hold. I have been buying dips along the way for several months now.
And I think that is going to be how I continue to play this market. Just simply collecting swaps to get paid, to hang on to the trade and then collecting my gains as they occur.
On a Break Lower
If we were to break down below the 146 yen level, then it’s likely that we really will start to fall apart, perhaps reaching down to the 143.50 yen level. The market remains a little bit noisy, but really that’s not a huge surprise. Just think of all of the drama going on at the same time. And with that being the case, it’s difficult for people to get overly aggressive in any particular position. That includes the dollar against the yen, but over the longer term, I still prefer the US dollar over the yen, at least until we break down below the 146 yen level.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Natural gas price activated with the main indicators’ positivity, breaching the resistance at $3.290 level, to settle within the main bullish channel’s levels, achieving some gains by reaching 3.365.
Forming main support at $3.280 level, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, we expect forming a new bullish rally to surpass $3.410 level, to target the next station at 3.350.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.300 and $3.530
Copper price settled above $4.7500 level, increasing the efficiency of the suggested bullish trend, hitting 4.8500 level again.
The unionism of the main indicators to provide positive momentum by forming extra support at $4.5600 level, these factors will support renewing the bullish attempts, that target $4.9500 level reaching the next main target near 5.3200.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.6700 and 4.9500
The (ETHUSD) price settled with gains in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, representing dynamic support that helps the price rise, with the positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals from them.
VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (September 22–26, 2025)
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There is the potential for choppy range trading on the last day of the month. The latest US job openings data will also be important while markets will be monitoring US political developments closely with the threat of a government shutdown on Wednesday.
UoB commented; “Based on the current momentum, any further advance is unlikely to threaten the major resistance at 1.3525. On the downside, support levels are at 1.3415 and 1.3395.”
According to Scotiabank; “we remain neutral in the absence of a break back above 1.35.”
As far as US politics is concerned, the immediate focus will be on the risk of a government shutdown with the current funding due to expire today.
A meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders failed to make headway amid deep divisions.
The implications of any shutdown could be more serious than usual given the labour-market impact.
Government workers are usually furloughed during a shutdown, but this time the Administration has pledged to fire workers and not re-hire those that are not considered essential.
There are also a huge number of Federal workers who will officially leave their jobs at the end of September after receiving a six-month redundancy package earlier in the year.
With jobs data watched very closely, any shutdown could also lead to Friday’s scheduled employment report being postponed.
MUFG commented; “As result, market participants are wary that a government shutdown could prove more disruptive this time around depending as well on how long it remains in place.”
According to Brown Brothers Harriman senior markets strategist Elias Haddad; “A prolonged shutdown (more than two weeks), increases the downside risk to growth and raises the likelihood of a more accommodative Fed.”
The latest UK data did not have a major impact with annual GDP growth revised to 1.4% from 1.2% due to historic revisions. There are, however, still expectations of tax increases in November.
Standard Chartered commented on the outlook; “The BOE is likely to enter a protracted pause and the focus will shift to the UK’s Autumn Budget (26 November). The UK’s deficit remains sizable but is likely to improve, easing fears of a fiscal crisis. However, a reliance on tax hikes could weigh on growth and cap GBP gains.”
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The (ETHUSD) price settled with gains in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, representing dynamic support that helps the price rise, with the positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals from them.
VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (September 22–26, 2025)
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Full VIP signals performance report for September 22–26, 2025:
Read the full USD/JPY forecast, including chart setups and trade ideas.
As traders consider the BoJ’s views on the Tankan survey, attention is also turning to the AUD/USD as Aussie inflation and labor market data cloud the RBA’s policy outlook.
Ai Group Industry Index Dips, Spotlighting the Aussie Dollar
Turning focus to the AUD/USD pair, the Ai Group Industry Index fell from -13.9 in August to -16.0 in September, weighing on the Aussie dollar.
The Index provides insights into the economic outlook as survey respondents across the private sector answer questions about employment, new orders, and production.
A softer number could signal weaker demand and a cooling labor market. Rising unemployment may soften wage growth, curbing consumer spending. A pullback in spending may dampen inflation, supporting the case for an RBA rate cut in November.
The AUD/USD pair briefly climbed to $0.66183 before falling to $0.66042 after the softer data.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Dovish RBA chatter and rising trade friction may push AUD/USD toward $0.655.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Hawkish RBA comments and easing trade tensions could send AUD/USD toward $0.665.
See our full AUD/USD analysis for detailed trends and trade setups.
US Labor Market Data and the Interest Rate Differential
Amid rising uncertainty about a November RBA rate cut, US labor market data could provide greater clarity on Fed policy this week.
A marked increase in nonfarm payrolls may temper bets on an October Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed rate path could widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential, favoring the US dollar and pushing AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA ($0.65556).
On the other hand, a lower print may fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter, narrowing the rate differential. A more dovish Fed policy stance could send AUD/USD toward $0.665.
Gold hangs close to fresh record highs above $3,870 early Wednesday.
US Dollar consolidates the downside on US government shutdown concerns.
Technically, Gold eyes more gains with the four-hourly RSI still within the bullish zone.
Gold keeps its record-setting rally intact early Wednesday, consolidating near lifetime highs above $3,870 as the United States (US) heads for an imminent government shutdown.
Gold capitalizes on US shutdown, delay in payrolls report
Kicking off the final quarter of 2025 on a bullish note, Gold buyers refuse to give up and flex their muscles as the US government funding expires at 04:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the Republicans and Democrats unlikely to strike a last-minute interim deal.
The last government shutdown stretched from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting 35 days – during US President Donald Trump’s first term.
The immediate effect of a government shutdown will likely be the delay in the monthly labor market report, scheduled for this Friday, which is critical for the markets to gauge whether the US Federal Reserve will remain on track for two additional interest rate cuts this year.
Markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut later this month, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
A likelihood of prolonged uncertainty on the US fiscal and monetary policy front is expected to rattle investors’ confidence in the US assets, including the US Dollar (USD), fuelling an increased rush to safety in the traditional safe haven Gold.
Meanwhile, the Greenback is also reeling from the pain of a mixed reading for the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The report showed US openings increased marginally by 19,000 in August, while hiring declined, consistent with a softening labor market.
All eyes now remain on the US government shutdown scenario and its likely impact on the broader market sentiment. If a shutdown happens, the US private sector payrolls by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will hog the limelight on Wednesday, in the absence of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release this Friday.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI and speeches from Fed policymakers could also drive the sentiment around Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis: Four-hourly chart
As observed on the four-hour chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within the bullish territory, currently near 68.
Therefore, the leading indicator suggests that Gold still has more room to the upside, and that any dip could be quickly bought in.
However, if buyers refuse to give up, buyers yearn for acceptance above the $3,870 level on a daily closing basis to resume the bullish momentum.
The next topside hurdle is located at the $3,900 barrier as the hunt for the $4,000 mark remains on the radar.
Conversely, any retracement pullback could test the initial support at $3,806, the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA), below which the 50-SMA at $3,763 would be tested.
Deeper correction could target the September 24 low at $3,718, followed by the 100-SMA at $3,708.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The US dollar has fallen after initially trying to recover against the Japanese yen. It is sitting on top of the 200-day EMA, so we’ll see if that holds. It could end up being a buying opportunity. A move above the 149 yen level would be confirmation that there are plenty of buyers here, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out.
A breakdown below the 50-day EMA opens up a move back down to the 146-yen level. I do think choppiness is the order of the day, but really at this point in time, the Japanese yen, despite the fact that it has recovered the last couple of days, is not a currency I want to own.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar has broken higher again and now finds itself above the 0.66 level, perhaps making its way towards the 0.67 level over time. This is an interesting market because it has underperformed most of its colleagues against the US dollar. But at this point, maybe it’s finally starting to get a little bit more sustainable in its move higher. It is worth noting that the Australians kept their interest rate at the same level in the early hours of the day. So maybe that’s part of what it is. They just aren’t cutting as they stay at 3.6%.
All things being equal though, I am a little bit leery of getting aggressive until we can clear the top of the candlestick from last Wednesday, which isn’t too far away. It’s somewhere right around 0.6630. I think above there, then you have a little bit more confirmation. Otherwise, we may spend some time consolidating in this general vicinity.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
