Gold (XAU/USD) Extends Record Run Above $3,650 as Fed Cut Bets Surge

Spot and Futures Push to Historic Highs

Gold (XAU/USD) has broken into uncharted territory, climbing above $3,650 per ounce for the first time in history. Spot gold touched an intraday peak of $3,659.10, while futures on COMEX advanced to $3,687.30, marking a fresh all-time high. Earlier in the week, prices also spiked to $3,636.71, and U.S. gold futures settled near $3,676. The metal has now gained close to 38% year-to-date in 2025, building on an already hefty 27% rally in 2024.

Labor Market Weakness Fuels Fed Pivot Bets

The rally intensified after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised U.S. payrolls down by 911,000 jobs for the 12 months through March. With unemployment hitting its highest level since 2021 and August payrolls delivering only 22,000 new jobs, traders are nearly unanimous in expecting rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool is pricing in an 88% probability of a 25 bps cut and a 10% chance of a 50 bps cut at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting. A weaker jobs backdrop has historically reinforced demand for non-yielding assets like gold, as lower rates compress real yields.

Central Bank Demand Adds Momentum

Alongside monetary policy, persistent central bank buying continues to underpin prices. Institutions in China, Turkey, India, and Poland have been accumulating gold aggressively. UBS analysts project a climb toward $3,700 by mid-2026, while some strategists at Goldman Sachs suggest levels as high as $5,000 per ounce could be possible if confidence in U.S. Treasuries deteriorates further and even a modest share of capital rotates into bullion. The European Central Bank already confirmed that gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset behind the dollar, highlighting its structural importance in reserve management.

Tariffs, Politics, and Fed Independence Risks

Geopolitical factors are also at play. President Trump recently exempted gold from global tariff lists, shielding bullion from trade disputes that have hit other metals like tungsten and uranium. However, Trump’s aggressive push to reshape the Federal Reserve board — including attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook — has raised alarms about central bank independence. Analysts argue that a weakened Fed could accelerate capital flight from Treasuries into gold. Political uncertainty in Europe, including the collapse of France’s government, has further boosted the safe-haven appeal of bullion.

Global Market and Retail Dynamics

The surge in gold isn’t confined to U.S. markets. In the Philippines, prices rose to ₱6,670.28 per gram and ₱207,469.70 per ounce, while in Australia, spot values above US$3,599 have driven a rush of prospecting activity. Veteran prospector Brent Shannon noted that nuggets worth $350,000 in 2020 would fetch $650,000–$700,000 today. The Perth Mint reported surging inflows from institutional clients, even as retail buyers of minted bars slowed purchases amid higher costs. In Victoria, gold tourism has exploded, attracting prospectors from Europe as bullion fever spreads globally.

Technical Structure and Price Targets

Charts show gold breaking cleanly above a long-held ascending triangle, with $3,500 now acting as a structural floor. Analysts highlight $3,800 as the next measured target, with strong support forming between $3,570–$3,600. Momentum indicators confirm overbought conditions, but each pullback has been shallow, reflecting “buy the dip” appetite. As long as the Fed leans dovish, dips toward $3,550–$3,580 are likely to attract buyers.

Mining Sector and Equity Links

The surge in bullion has filtered into mining stocks. Companies like Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC), which recently reduced its stake in Asante Gold to 5.2% but still holds 36.9 million shares, remain leveraged to spot gains. Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) boosted exposure in Idaho by acquiring 9.9% of Liberty Gold (TSX:LGD), underscoring industry positioning for sustained high prices. At the same time, Dundee Sustainable Technologies reported upgrades in concentrate grade by 31% while cutting arsenic content 99%, aligning with rising ESG scrutiny in gold mining.

Verdict on XAU/USD

Gold’s breakout above $3,650 confirms a structurally bullish regime. With monetary easing nearly guaranteed, central banks stockpiling reserves, and geopolitical stress intensifying, the metal’s trajectory favors further gains toward $3,800–$4,000. Risks lie in potential Fed hesitation if inflation runs hotter, but the balance of probabilities remains skewed to the upside. Based on price action, macro drivers, and institutional positioning, XAU/USD remains a strong Buy.

That’s TradingNEWS

Platinum price returned to settle above $1382.00 level, increasing the efficiency of the bullish track, fluctuating near the initial target at $1400.00, the continuation of the attempts to provide positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of resuming the bullish attack, to expect its rally towards $1412.00, then attempts to press on the barrier near $1435.00.

While the price return to settle below $1382.00 will force it to delay the bullish attack and form new correctional waves, which forces it to suffer some of the losses before resuming the main bullish attack by reaching $1362.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1382.00 and $ 1412.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Created on September 09, 2025

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a little bit during the trading session on Monday, but it has shown itself to be a bit feckless as we have given back quite a bit of the initial momentum.
• At this point, the market is probably doing everything it can to do some type of range building exercise, letting us know where we are going to trade for the next month or 2.
• At this point, there are a couple of areas that I’m looking at very closely, as I think this market is apt to find itself in a range sooner or later.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is in a bit of flux right now, due to the fact that we could be trying to form some type of “double bottom”, and quite frankly, before the open outcry part of the session in America, it looked like that’s exactly what we are trying to do. The $62 level is a candidate for support, but we’ll have to wait and see whether or not that actually plays out. The $66 level is very clearly a major resistance barrier, and until something changes, it’s probably going to be somewhat difficult for market participants to drive the Light Sweet Crude Oil market above that level. Furthermore, we also have the 200 Day EMA dropping, and it will eventually find its way down to that area also.

If we were to break down below the $62 level, then it would make a bit of sense to anticipate that the $60 level could end up being support, mainly due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Anything below there could be rather ugly.

The biggest problem the crude oil has at the moment is the fact that Russia, OPEC, in the United States are all pumping massive amounts of crude oil into the market. With that being the case, market participants will continue to see a lot of downward pressure on price in general. Because of this, I still believe that even if we do form a bit of a range, it is probably more of the “sell the rips” type of environment. The first signs of exhaustion probably get sellers back into the market.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Platinum price returned to settle above $1382.00 level, increasing the efficiency of the bullish track, fluctuating near the initial target at $1400.00, the continuation of the attempts to provide positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of resuming the bullish attack, to expect its rally towards $1412.00, then attempts to press on the barrier near $1435.00.

While the price return to settle below $1382.00 will force it to delay the bullish attack and form new correctional waves, which forces it to suffer some of the losses before resuming the main bullish attack by reaching $1362.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1382.00 and $ 1412.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold consolidates just under $3,650 as traders weigh Fed cut odds and CPI/PPI catalysts.
• Structural bids from central banks and geopolitical risk continue to underpin strength.
• H4 Fair Value Gaps ($3,616–$3,645) define the battleground; breakout above $3,650 opens $3,700, breakdown risks $3,570.

Gold sustains record-high bid as rate-cut odds surge

Gold’s latest leg higher came on the back of a decisively weak U.S. August jobs report and a quick repricing toward a September Fed rate cut. Spot gold printed fresh records near $3,600/oz and continues to hover just below that line as traders firm up odds of easing at the upcoming FOMC. Lower policy-rate expectations compress real yields and keep the dollar on the defensive—classic tailwinds for bullion.

Beyond the macro rates impulse, the structural bid is alive: central-bank buying (with fresh headlines pointing to continued PBoC additions in August) and elevated geopolitical risk have reinforced gold’s role as a portfolio hedge. That backdrop helped absorb profit-taking dips into the back half of last week.

What’s driving Gold right now

• Soft NFP seals the deal for September easing. August payrolls rose just 22k, and unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, pushing gold to new highs and cementing a 25 bp cut as the base case.
• Markets sit near records; yields ease. Risk assets’ resilience alongside falling yields reflects a market leaning into easier policy—a mix that historically supports gold.
• Central-bank demand & geopolitics. Reports of China’s PBoC adding to reserves and ongoing conflict risks keep strategic demand firm.

Price action follow-through: From forecast to $3,650 test

In Monday’s outlook, we highlighted gold’s ability to reclaim layered H4 Fair Value Gaps as a structural foundation for further upside. That forecast has since materialized: buyers defended the $3,550–$3,560 shelf, and momentum carried price into a clean breakout sequence.

The move extended into the $3,640–$3,650 zone, aligning with our projected bullish continuation path. Each retest of intraday imbalances attracted fresh demand, confirming market conviction that dips remain buying opportunities. The current structure shows price consolidating just under $3,650 – the next pivotal resistance before $3,700 comes into view.

CME FedWatch: 89% probability of September cut

The CME FedWatch Tool now prices an 89% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with a smaller 10% chance of a 50 bp move.

This overwhelmingly dovish repricing is critical for gold. A confirmed rate cut would:

• Lower U.S. real yields, directly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
• Weaken the U.S. dollar, reinforcing gold’s inverse correlation.
• Strengthen haven demand, as easing signals the Fed’s recognition of slowing growth.

Together, these dynamics create a macro backdrop where gold’s floor remains supported, even if technicals temporarily stretch into overbought territory. Traders will watch whether CPI/PPI confirm the Fed’s dovish path—cool inflation could propel gold beyond $3,650 toward the $3,700 target zone.

Overall narrative: Why the bid can persist

Rate expectations are the beating heart of this move. With FedWatch showing nearly 90% odds of easing, gold has a clear policy-driven tailwind. Pair that with central-bank accumulation and risk-hedging flows, and dips have struggled to develop follow-through. If CPI/PPI confirm a cooling trend, the path of least resistance remains higher into the Fed meeting.

Technical outlook: XAU/USD still hot

Gold’s is consolidating beneath the $3,650 resistance, with multiple H4 Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) forming below current levels.

Prior to this move, the FVG at $3,630 – $3,616 served as a point-of-interest for bounce to the upside.

These FVGs between $3,616 – $3,645 are pivotal zones where buyers may attempt to step back in if price retraces. The reaction at these imbalances will dictate whether gold clears $3,650 for continuation or fades back into deeper retracement.

Bullish scenario: Reclaim above $3,650

The bullish case hinges on whether buyers can hold the FVGs and reclaim $3,650 with conviction.

• Price dips into the $3,628–$3,638 FVG zone and finds strong buyer response.
• A breakout and daily close above $3,650 confirms momentum continuation.
• Upside targets: $3,670 first, then $3,700 psychological resistance.

Bearish scenario: Rejection and breakdown through FVGs

Alternatively, a sustained rejection under $3,650 combined with a hot CPI or stronger USD could trigger a deeper pullback.

• Failure to reclaim $3,650 opens the path to revisit the FVGs.
• A clean breakdown through the $3,628–$3,616 FVG cluster signals bearish intent.
• Downside targets: $3,600, followed by $3,580–$3,570 where structural supports align.

Final note: Wait for confirmation

While both bullish and bearish paths are clear on the chart, gold is sitting at a pivotal juncture. With CPI/PPI ahead and Fed cut odds already priced, chasing moves without confirmation risks being trapped in volatility. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above $3,650 or a decisive breakdown through the $3,628–$3,616 zone before committing to directional trades.