GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling stabilizes ahead of US data

GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades at around 1.3550 after gaining about 0.3% on Thursday. Although the technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup in bearish momentum, the pair could find it difficult to hold its ground in case safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets heading into the weekend.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened against its rivals and allowed GBP/USD to stretch higher following the mixed macroeconomic data releases on Thursday. Read more…

GBP/USD bullish bias intact after CPI

Today’s US CPI release came in line with market forecasts, confirming that inflation is easing but without any major surprises. For the dollar, this result maintains the broader narrative of a softening macro backdrop—where growth momentum is cooling and rate cut expectations remain anchored.

From the UK side, inflation is still proving “sticky,” which has slowed the Bank of England’s path to easing compared to the Fed. This divergence continues to favor the pound over the dollar in the medium term. Read more…

USD/JPY Holds Near 148.00 as CPI and Fed Policy Shape Market Conviction

Macro Drivers Push USD/JPY Volatility Higher

The USD/JPY pair advanced to nearly 148.00 after U.S. inflation data and renewed geopolitical tensions kept the dollar in demand. The August CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, up from July’s 2.7%, while the core CPI printed at 3.1%, in line with forecasts. Monthly gains of 0.3% for both headline and core confirm that inflation remains sticky. This data hit just a week before the FOMC decision, where futures markets price in an 88% chance of a 25 bps cut and an 8% probability of a 50 bps cut, bringing rates to the 3.75–4.00% range. At the same time, Japan’s own data offered mixed cues: the PPI rose 2.7% in August, GDP for Q2 was revised higher to 2.2% annualized, and household spending showed its first real wage increase in seven months. These numbers strengthened the case for the Bank of Japan to hike by year-end, keeping yen demand alive despite short-term weakness.

Geopolitical Risk Keeps Dollar Supported

Geopolitics remain a crucial tailwind for the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Reports of Russian drones entering Polish airspace during the Ukraine conflict added urgency to risk hedging, pushing the USD Index (DXY) back toward 98.00. While the yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven, political uncertainty following Ishiba’s resignation created hesitation. A new prime minister could shift Japan’s monetary stance abruptly, leaving markets reluctant to fully price in aggressive BoJ tightening. This divergence has kept the USD/JPY pair well bid above 147.00 despite fragile U.S. macro fundamentals.

Technical Landscape Defines the Battle Zone

Technically, USD/JPY reclaimed ground after a failed breakdown attempt near 146.50. Bulls forced the pair above the 30-day SMA, and momentum indicators turned supportive. The RSI trades above 50, showing controlled bullish energy, while the MACD buy signal holds. Resistance sits at 147.94–148.13, followed by the 200-day SMA near 148.75 and the critical 149.00–149.15 range, where sellers previously reloaded. A sustained break above 149.15 could expose the psychological 150.00 handle, shifting the market toward a stronger dollar bias. On the downside, initial support lies at 147.00, with deeper levels at 146.30–146.20 and 145.35, before the pivotal 145.00 round figure. Failure to defend 146.20 would likely tilt sentiment bearish and open the door toward 144.50.

Fed-BoJ Policy Divergence Shapes USD/JPY Trajectory

The divergence between the Fed and the BoJ defines the longer-term bias for USD/JPY. The Fed is widely expected to cut three times before year-end, with cumulative easing priced near 68 bps, while Japan edges closer to its first meaningful hike in decades. The Reuters Tankan poll revealed Japanese manufacturing confidence at a three-year high, signaling resilience that could embolden BoJ hawks. Yet, as long as U.S. policy maintains higher real yields compared to Japan, capital flow dynamics favor the dollar. Investors remain reluctant to aggressively sell USD/JPY until the Fed confirms the pace of cuts. If September delivers a dovish pivot alongside firm BoJ guidance, USD/JPY could break its range decisively lower. For now, range-trading dominates between 146.95 and 148.50, with breakout potential tied directly to the CPI-Fed-BoJ sequence of events.

Trading Strategy and Rating

At current levels around 147.90–148.00, USD/JPY trades in a delicate balance between short-term bullish momentum and medium-term downside risk. A confirmed break above 149.00 favors bullish extension toward 150.00, while any sustained drop under 146.20 flips momentum to bearish. Given the CPI print, Fed cut expectations, and looming BoJ tightening, the pair is best rated a Hold, with tactical opportunities to Buy dips above 146.90 and Sell rallies against 149.00 resistance until a definitive macro trigger emerges.

That’s TradingNEWS

The EURJPY pair succeeded in facing stochastic negativity by its stability above 172.00 level yesterday, to form some of the bullish waves to approach from the barrier at 173.50, forming an obstacle against the attempts of resuming the bullish attack.

To confirm the attempts of resuming the bullish attack, we recommend waiting for breaching the barrier and providing positive close above it, to increase the chances for recording extra gains that might extend to 174.25 reaching 1.809%Fibonacci extension level at 175.20, while the price failure to breach this level will force it to provide more of the sideways trading, and there is a new chance to decline towards 171.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.60 and 174.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

• GBP/USD moves sideways near 1.3550 in the European session on Friday.
• The US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index will be the last data release of the week.
• The cautious market stance could limit the pair’s upside heading into the weekend.

GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades at around 1.3550 after gaining about 0.3% on Thursday. Although the technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup in bearish momentum, the pair could find it difficult to hold its ground in case safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets heading into the weekend.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened against its rivals and allowed GBP/USD to stretch higher following the mixed macroeconomic data releases on Thursday.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% on a yearly basis in August. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% on a monthly basis. Both of these figures came in line with analysts’ estimates.

Other data from the US showed that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 263,000 in the week ending September 6 from 236,000 in the previous week. This data revived fears over worsening conditions in the US labor market and weighed on the USD.

Later in the American session, the University of Michigan (UoM) will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for September. Rather than the headline number, markets could react to the 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations component of the survey. A noticeable increase in this data could be supportive for the USD and cause GBP/USD to edge lower with the immediate reaction.

Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed in the European session. A bearish opening in Wall Street could help the USD outperform its rivals and hurt GBP/USD. Conversely, an improving market mood is likely to open the door for a recovery in the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds above 50 and GBP/USD trades above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting sellers’ hesitancy.

On the downside, the first support level could be spotted at 1.3500 (static level, round level) ahead of 1.3470-1.3460 (20-day SMA, 50-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.3450 (200-period SMA). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3590-1.3600 (static level, round level) and 1.3640 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).

• EUR/USD declines toward 1.1700 after closing in positive territory on Thursday.
• Comments from ECB policymakers highlight a difference of opinion on inflation outlook.
• The technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum in the short term.

EUR/USD struggles to hold its ground and declines toward 1.1700 on Friday after posting modest gains on Thursday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum as markets assess comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers.

The ECB left key rates unchanged after the September policy meeting, as widely anticipated. In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Lagarde noted that the disinflationary process is over and noted that a stronger Euro could bring inflation down more than expected.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure on Thursday and helped EUR/USD push higher after the data from the US showed that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.9% in August as expected, while the weekly Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 263,000 in the week ending September 6 from 236,000 in the previous week.

Early Friday, ECB officials’ mixed tone make it difficult for the Euro to preserve its strength.

ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus noted that inflation has stabilized at the targeted level but added that risks remain high. Similarly, Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides argued that there is currently no need for the ECB to lower interest rates further to deliver stable inflation.

On the other hand, policymaker Olli Rehn said that they must be mindful of downside risks to inflation stemming from cheaper energy prices and a stronger Euro, while Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva noted that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is slow in the eurozone, with competitiveness causing a problem.

In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index data for August. In case the 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations component of the survey rises further, the USD could hold its ground and cause EUR/USD to stretch lower heading into the weekend.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declines toward 50 and EUR/USD trades near the 20-period Simple Moving Average, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.

On the downside, the 1.1680-1.1665 area, where the 20-day and the 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are located, aligns as a key support level before 1.1650-1.1640 (200-period SMA, lower limit of the ascending regression channel) and 1.1600 (static level, round level).

Looking north, resistance levels could be seen at 1.1740 (static level), 1.1770 (static level) and 1.1790-1.1800 (upper limit of the ascending channel, static level).