Confirmation from Moving Averages and AVWAP

Thursday’s close above the 20-Day moving average at $2.89 gave a clear signal of improving momentum. Natural gas also reclaimed the anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) near $2.96, which had been an important reference level. Yesterday’s $2.99 close confirmed this breakout, while prior resistance at $2.97 has shifted to support. A second consecutive close above the AVWAP today would strengthen the bullish case.

Long-Term AVWAP Recovered

The long-term AVWAP, drawn from the 2024 trend low, had acted as dynamic support for much of the year before breaking down in August. Its recovery this week signals buyers are regaining control of the longer-term trend. That development improves the probability of a sustained move higher and shifts market tone toward accumulation rather than distribution.

Channel Structure Supports Further Gains

Price action has also respected the structure of a large descending parallel channel. The channel’s midpoint was reclaimed yesterday, with today’s low bouncing from support near $2.92. Earlier, the August swing low at $2.62 reversed higher from the 78% retracement of the channel, confirming recognition of the structure. This behavior strengthens the outlook for further gains while keeping the broader channel pattern intact.

Upside Targets in Focus

Once price reverses from the lower side of a channel, the opposite side often becomes the next logical target. For natural gas, that points to an upside zone at $3.15–$3.19, which also matches measured objectives from the wedge breakout. Adding weight to this level, the 50-Day moving average has now aligned at $3.18, making it a key resistance area to monitor. A decisive breakout would open further upside potential, while hesitation here could lead to consolidation or weakness.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The (Brent) price witnessed fluctuated move on its last intraday levels, amid its attempts to breach the current resistance level at $67.60, this level was our yesterday’s suggested target, taking advantage of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a supportive bias line for this track, on the other hand, we notice the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, which might decelerate the rise.

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• Silver consolidates gains on Monday as the US Dollar and Treasury yields stabilize in the aftermath of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.
• Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech reinforced expectations for a September rate cut, weighing on the US Dollar.
• XAG/USD holds above key support levels, with the 100-period SMA and former triangle top offering a strong floor near $38.00.

Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm near a one-month high on Monday, consolidating the gains that followed a strong bullish breakout on Friday. The metal surged above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle formation after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell delivered dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut. The subsequent drop in the US Dollar and Treasury yields fueled a broad-based rally in precious metals, with Silver climbing to its highest level since July 25.

At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $38.90, having posted an intraday low of $38.57 during the European session. The metal appears to be digesting recent gains as market participants reassess Fed policy outlook and await fresh catalysts. Despite Monday’s sideways movement, the broader technical picture remains tilted in favor of the bulls.

From a technical perspective, the breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline and the psychological $38.00 barrier marks a significant shift in near-term momentum. The move also confirmed a continuation of the broader uptrend that had been in consolidation for most of August.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 68, near overbought territory, but still suggesting strong underlying demand. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows a positive crossover above the signal line, with rising histogram bars that confirm bullish momentum is building.

Looking ahead, a sustained move above Friday’s high at $39.06 could open the door for a test of the next key resistance at $39.53, which marks the multi-year peak. A breakout above this zone would likely reinforce bullish conviction and open the door for a run toward the psychological $40.00 level.

On the downside, initial support is seen at $38.50, followed by the 100-period SMA around $37.98, which closely aligns with the upper boundary of the broken triangle pattern. A drop below this confluence support could invite a retest of the $37.50 pivot zone. While this level triggered the recent bounce, a sustained break beneath it would mark a bearish shift and expose Silver to further downside toward the $37.00 level.

Overall, the technical outlook for XAG/USD remains bullish in the near term, supported by strong breakout confirmation, favorable macro conditions, and rising momentum. As long as Silver holds above $38.00, dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, with scope for the rally to resume toward multi-year highs in the days ahead.

At 11:52 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3410.80, down $6.26 or -0.18%.

Support Levels Lined Up Below as Bulls Guard the Trend

That being said, gold is not without downside risk. Traders are still watching $3,367.37 as a nearby floor, with the pivot at $3,353.58 and the 50-day moving average at $3,348.80 just below. That 50-day is quietly running the show—dip-buyers have defended it well, and sellers haven’t managed a daily close beneath it since August 21.

Dollar Soft, Yields Muted, and Political Risk Creeping In

The broader backdrop is helping gold stay afloat. The U.S. dollar is heading for a 2% monthly drop, while Treasury yields remain soft despite ticking slightly higher Friday. Political noise is also in the mix—President Trump’s attempts to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook have sparked concerns over the Fed’s independence. That’s not driving big flows just yet, but the potential for credibility risk is now priced into the longer end of the curve.

Rate Cut Odds Climb as Fed Doves Get Louder

On the rate front, traders are locking in bets. There’s now an 85%+ chance of a September rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. Fed Governor Waller said Thursday he wants to start cutting next month—and expects more to follow.

If Friday’s PCE data comes in around expectations (0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y), it likely keeps that dovish tilt intact. But a hotter print north of 3% would catch markets offside and could send gold back under $3,400 fast.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Tilt Holds, But Ceiling Still Intact

We’re still seeing buyers step in on dips, and as long as gold holds the 50-day, bulls have the upper hand. But it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see how quickly sentiment could sour on a hot PCE read. More likely than not, gold continues to consolidate between $3,350 and $3,450 until we get clearer data next week. Time will tell, but for now, the market wants to believe in a dovish Fed.

Natural gas prices are affected by stochastic positivity, to keep forming bullish correctional waves, recovering more of the losses by hitting $3.010 level, approaching from the neckline of the negative head and shoulders that appear in the above image.

 Note that the stability of the trading below the resistance at $3.160, and the attempts of the main indicators to provide the negative momentum, these factors support the bearish suggestion, to expect reaching $2.810, then attempts to press on the barrier near $2.620, while the price success in breaching the resistance will cancel the bearish suggestion, providing chances for building new bullish track in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $2.810 and $3.050

Trend forecast: Bearish

The (Brent) price witnessed fluctuated move on its last intraday levels, amid its attempts to breach the current resistance level at $67.60, this level was our yesterday’s suggested target, taking advantage of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a supportive bias line for this track, on the other hand, we notice the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, which might decelerate the rise.

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