• The GBP/USD forecast indicates an increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

• Traders are only pricing a 40% chance of another Bank of England rate cut this year. 

• Wholesale inflation in the UK hit a two-year high of 1.9%.

The GBP/USD forecast indicates an increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which is weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, the pound remained steady as bets for another Bank of England rate cut this year have decreased following upbeat UK wholesale inflation. 

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Rate cut bets increased after Fed’s John Williams said a rate cut was possible. However, he noted that the outlook would largely depend on the upcoming economic releases. His remarks pushed traders to price an 89% chance of the central bank cutting in September.

The story is different in the UK, where traders are only pricing a 40% chance of another Bank of England rate cut this year. Data revealed that wholesale inflation in the UK hit a two-year high of 1.9%. This came after consumer inflation also jumped. As a result, policymakers have assumed a more cautious tone about future rate cuts.

“A more persistent hold on Bank Rate is appropriate right now, to maintain the tight-but-not-tighter monetary policy stance needed to lean against inflation persistence,” Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said in remarks released by the BoE on Tuesday.

GBP/USD key events today

• US preliminary GDP q/q
• US unemployment claims

GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls eye the 1.3575 resistance

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI in bullish territory above 50. This indicates that bulls are currently in the lead. However, the price is still not making higher highs and lows. 

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The trend recently shifted from bullish to bearish after meeting the key resistance level at 1.3575. However, bears were unable to break below a solid support zone comprising the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1.3401 level. Here, the price made a solid bullish candle that broke above the SMA. It showed a surge in momentum. Although bulls struggled to maintain the price above the SMA, they produced another strong candle, indicating solid bullish momentum. 

The price is now targeting the 1.3575 resistance level. A break above will make a higher high, continuing the previous uptrend. It will also solidify the bullish trend.

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Copper price faced stochastic negativity by its stability above the extra support at $4.2600, keeping the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, while gathering the bullish momentum makes us expect targeting $4.6200, pressing on the barrier near $4.7500 to find an exit to resume the bullish attempts.

While the risk of changing the main trend is represented by forming a sharp decline, to settle below the support of the bullish channel towards $4.0750, which forces it to suffer several losses by reaching $3.9200 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.3000 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price faced stochastic negativity by its stability above the extra support at $4.2600, keeping the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, while gathering the bullish momentum makes us expect targeting $4.6200, pressing on the barrier near $4.7500 to find an exit to resume the bullish attempts.

While the risk of changing the main trend is represented by forming a sharp decline, to settle below the support of the bullish channel towards $4.0750, which forces it to suffer several losses by reaching $3.9200 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.3000 and $4.6200

Trend forecast: Bullish

• USD/JPY holds 146.20–148.80 range as Fed political turmoil and key U.S. data loom.
• Core PCE inflation, Spending, and Income data may trigger breakout ahead of September FOMC.
• Bulls eye 150.00–150.90 on breakout; bears target 145.50–144.50 if 146.20 gives way.

USD/JPY rangebound ahead of key catalysts

The yen pair continues to trade inside a tight consolidation between 146.20 and 148.80, digesting August’s sharp rally. Neither side has managed to force a breakout, reflecting investor caution as two key forces converge:

1. Political risk at the Fed – the dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook has raised doubts about the central bank’s independence.
2. U.S. inflation and consumption data – Friday’s Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, and Income numbers could dictate whether September brings the first rate cut.

UBS has already revised forecasts lower, projecting USD/JPY toward the 142–140 range by mid-2026. But in the near term, traders are waiting for the first decisive move out of this consolidation box.

Fed governor dismissal: Political shock to Dollar credibility

The unprecedented removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump injected fresh volatility. Markets are now questioning whether monetary policy decisions are being driven by political pressure rather than independence, a narrative that undermines the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

• Yen strengthened on credibility concerns.
• USD weakened, despite risk-off sentiment that would normally support it.
• Rate cut odds surged, with FedWatch showing over 80% probability of easing in September.

Core PCE, spending and income: The breakout trigger

Friday’s U.S. releases – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, and Personal Income – are highly anticipated. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and combined with spending/income trends, it will heavily influence policy expectations.

• Hotter data (>0.3% MoM PCE): Would challenge the rate-cut narrative, strengthen the dollar, and support a bullish breakout above 148.80.
• Weaker data (<0.3% MoM PCE/Income): Would reinforce September easing bets, favoring a bearish breakdown below 146.20.

This data could be the decisive trigger that resolves USD/JPY’s consolidation, especially given its proximity to the FOMC meeting.

News impact breakdown

Technical outlook: Box range in focus

USD/JPY is consolidating in a 146.20 – 148.80 box, with mid-range support at ~147.30 acting as balance. The next breakout will likely coincide with Friday’s data or FOMC expectations.

Bullish scenario: Range expansion to 150.00+

If buyers defend the 147.20–147.40 mid-range and push price through the 148.80 ceiling, momentum could extend the August rally.

• Triggers:
• • Mid-range defense at ~147.30.
  • Break and hold above 148.80.
• Targets:
• • 149.40 (round number magnet).
  • 150.00–150.90 (measured move extension).
• Invalidation: Breakdown below 146.80 would weaken bullish bias.

Bearish xcenario: Breakdown to 145.50–144.50

If price fails to hold the midpoint and momentum turns lower, USD/JPY could slide back to the 146.20 support floor. A breakdown there would confirm bearish expansion.

• Triggers:
• • Rejection near mid-range resistance (~147.50).
  • Breakdown below 146.20.
• Targets:
• • 145.50 (short-term liquidity pocket).
  • 144.80–144.50 (swing support zone).
  • 142.60 (deeper flush if momentum accelerates).
• Invalidation: Breakout above 148.80 cancels the bearish thesis.

Final thoughts

USD/JPY is coiled inside a 146.20–148.80 range, awaiting its breakout trigger. Two forces now dominate the outlook:

With political pressure on the Fed undermining the dollar and Core PCE inflation data looming, a breakout is imminent.

• Bullish case: Breakout above 148.80 → 149.40 → 150.00–150.90.
• Bearish case: Breakdown below 146.20 → 145.50 → 144.50 → 142.60.

Traders should brace for volatility, liquidity sweeps, and false breaks around Friday’s PCE release. Patience and confirmation remain key.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Vulnerable Despite Powell’s Dovish Shift

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate forecast remains fragile after the single currency slipped to fresh lows near 1.1575 on Wednesday before stabilising into the New York open.

Political turmoil in Europe, including renewed fears over France’s government, continues to weigh on the euro, while the US dollar has held firm despite growing concerns about Federal Reserve independence.

Analysts remain split, with some warning of further losses toward 1.14, while others still see scope for EUR/USD to rebound toward 1.17 and even 1.20 over the medium term.

EUR/USD Forecasts: 1.1580 and 1.1745 Range?

The Euro has not been able to gain any traction on Wednesday and dipped to lows around 1.1575 before stabilising at the New York open.

The Euro has been undermined by on-going European concerns while the dollar has been resilient despite on-going unease surrounding the Administration attempts to gain greater control of the Federal Reserve.

According to UoB; “we expect EUR to trade in a range between 1.1580 and 1.1745 for now.”

Scotiabank notes the potential risk of a slide to 1.14, but added; “We remain neutral—for now— looking to a near-term range bound between 1.1550 support 1.1650 resistance.”

ING expects that the Euro can rebound; “We think EUR/USD can ultimately make its way back to 1.170.

Danske Bank expects a medium-term EUR/USD move to above 1.20.

Markets are continuing to monitor the French political situation and the bond market.

According to Rabobank; “the risk has grown substantially that France’s government will fall, which would also raise the risk that the 2026 budget will not include any material spending cuts.”

It added; “The coming days will tell if Bayrou can work the opposition parties to get them on board. The Socialists have said that it’s “inconceivable” that they will vote in favour of the government, but they seem to be the prime minister’s best chance for survival at this point.”

Scotiabank also noted European concerns; “Political uncertainty in Europe appears to be broadening as the Dutch government faces a no confidence vote ahead of an election scheduled for October. French bond markets look to have stabilized somewhat following Tuesday’s announcement of a September 8 confidence vote, however the country’s yields remain elevated as French-German yield spreads continue to widen.”

As far as the US economy is concerned, the consumer confidence index edged lower to 97.4 for August from 98.7 previously, but above consensus forecasts of 96.4.

Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board commented; “The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month.”

According to Rabobank; “Given Powell’s dovish lean at Jackson Hole and the recent repricing of the Fed, we are reluctant to chase the USD weaker in the near term, with downside risks to yields now looking more limited.”

Nevertheless, it added; “Strategically, we continue to recommend selling into rallies, consistent with our view that the USD remains on a downward trajectory over the medium term.”

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– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Price Forecast: Can GBP/USD Hold Ground before US GDP Data?

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate dipped on Wednesday as a downbeat sentiment swept markets.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3436, down roughly 0.3% from the start of Wednesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) pushed higher through Wednesday’s session, overcoming renewed political unease linked to the Federal Reserve.

Fresh reports suggesting that Donald Trump intends to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook reignited worries about political interference at the central bank this week.

While such developments often sap confidence in the Dollar, the currency was instead buoyed by its safe-haven appeal as investors sought stability amid fragile global sentiment.

This resilience allowed USD to make notable gains against several peers, with traders favouring the ‘Greenback’ despite the uncertainty hanging over the Fed.

The Pound (GBP) saw a patchy performance on Wednesday, making modest gains against some currencies while remaining steady against others, after the UK’s latest CBI distributive trades survey was published.

Retail activity continued to show signs of contraction, but the index slightly exceeded expectations, rising from -34 to -32 instead of the anticipated -33.

The small upside provided Sterling with limited support, helping the Pound maintain a generally steady tone across major currencies during mid-week trade.

GBP/USD FORECAST

Looking ahead to Thursday’s European session, the focus for GBP/USD will shift firmly onto the upcoming release of the US’s second-quarter GDP estimate.

Markets are expecting a rebound in growth, with forecasts pointing to a stronger reading following the slowdown earlier in the year.

If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it could reinforce confidence in the resilience of the US economy and provide fresh support for the ‘Greenback’.

Turning to the Pound, the UK data calendar remains relatively barren, leaving Sterling without a strong domestic driver.

This absence of fresh UK data means the Pound is likely to take its cues from broader market mood, limiting the scope for any major upside as the week progresses.

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