At 13:01 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3372.01, up $6.29 or +0.19%.
Trump’s Fed Pressure Triggers Safe-Haven Inflows into Gold
The dismissal is widely seen as a political maneuver aimed at steering the Fed toward a more dovish stance. Analysts, including Swissquote’s Carlo Alberto De Casa, warned that this introduces deeper uncertainty around the Fed’s credibility and decision-making autonomy—conditions historically supportive of gold.
Bond markets also reacted sharply. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 3 bps to 3.70%, while the 10-year yield held around 4.279% and the 30-year yield rose to 4.916%, steepening the yield curve. Traders are now betting on lower short-term rates but pricing in longer-term inflation risk, both favorable for non-yielding gold.
Fed Rate Cut Odds and Inflation Data in Focus
Adding to the bullish gold narrative, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, citing softening labor market indicators, even as inflation remains a concern. Money markets are now pricing in an 82% chance of a 25 bps cut.
Investors are eyeing this Friday’s PCE price index data—seen as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—for confirmation. A cooler reading could solidify the rate-cut narrative and strengthen gold’s upside.
China’s Gold Demand Rebounds Sharply
On the demand side, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 126.81% in July compared to June, according to Hong Kong Census data. This marked a major rebound in physical demand, offering further support to bullion.
Platinum price returned to form sideways range trading after recording the target at $1383.00, affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, especially by stochastic approach from 20 level, to notice its fluctuation near the moving average 55 at $1342.00.
Reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid, depending on the stability of the support at $1302.00, to keep waiting for gathering the positive momentum to ease the mission of surpassing the obstacle at $1383.00 reaching the next target at 1420.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $13300.00 and $1383.00
The EURJPY pair was forced to provide new sideways trading, attempting to face stochastic temporary negativity, to keep its positive stability within the bullish channel’s levels, noticing its repeated stability above the extra support level at 170.45.
If the price succeeded in gaining positive momentum, we expect activating the bullish attack by surpassing the initial obstacle at 172.35, then repeats the pressure on the barrier near 173.40 to find an exit for resuming the bullish attack in the upcoming period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 171.25 and 173.40
Friday’s breakout also pushed silver above the prior swing high at $38.74, keeping it firmly within its rising trend channel. That channel has been respected since late July, and the recent pullback to $36.96 tested both the lower channel line and the 50-Day moving average — both of which held. The 50-Day line has now supported two significant swing lows: one in early August and the other at the most recent trough. That reinforces its role as medium-term trend support. As long as silver holds above the 50-Day (currently near $37.10), the broader uptrend remains firmly intact.
Near-Term Targets and Resistance Levels
With silver consolidating in the upper third of Friday’s wide-range day, attention now turns to the July high at $39.53 as the next logical upside target. A decisive breakout above that swing high would strengthen the bullish outlook and confirm a breakout of a rising trend channel. There is potential resistance around the top of the channel. Twice in July, silver approached that upper boundary and failed — triggering short-term corrections each time. A similar reaction could unfold again if price stalls there.
Channel Top Could Define Next Move
For now, silver is in a constructive technical position: it has broken out above interim resistance, retested dynamic support, and is consolidating near recent highs. The next major signal will come from how price behaves near the channel top and trend high. A clean breakout through each would suggest accelerating momentum and the potential for a new leg higher.
Alternatively, another rejection at channel resistance could lead to a corrective retracement — possibly back toward the 50-Day line. Until either scenario plays out, silver remains bullish within its rising channel and supported by its key moving averages.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) forecast has taken a bearish turn as Sterling once again failed to break 1.1600, leaving the currency stuck near 1.1565.
Hopes of a UK rebound have been dashed despite stronger data and record FTSE 100 highs, while the Euro has shown surprising resilience in the face of weak German GDP and deepening geopolitical risks.
Analysts warn the Pound Sterling forecast vs the Euro could slide further, with Danske Bank projecting GBP/EUR at just 1.1235 within the next 12 months.
GBP/EUR UPDATE
After again failing to hold above 1.1600 on Thursday, the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) has been held in narrow ranges around 1.1565.
The Pound has not been able to capitalise on stronger-than-expected UK data or a fresh FTSE 100 index move to new record highs.
The Euro was also resilient against the Pound despite weaker-than-expected German data and no progress in securing any progress on the Ukraine situation.
Save on Your GBP/EUR Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
Danske Bank forecasts that GBP/EUR will retreat to 1.1235 on a 12-month view.
Revised German GDP data recorded a 0.3% contraction for the second quarter compared with the flash reading of a 0.1% decline with year-on-year growth held at 0.2%.
ING commented; “Today’s GDP release shows the recent wave of optimism that had caught the German economy in the first months of the year is not yet showing in the data.
It added; “In fact, after the surge in economic activity resulting from the US front-loading of German exports in the first quarter, the economy experienced a reversal of the front-loading effect, and the first full-blown impact of US tariffs took effect.”
Importantly, however, markets have priced out the potential for further interest rate cuts by the ECB which is providing net Euro support.
As far as UK data is concerned, the GfK consumer confidence index improved to -17 for August from -19 the previous month and compared with consensus forecasts of no change. Four of the five main components improved on the month, but there was a small dip in confidence surrounding the general economic outlook for the next 12 months and this figure is still well below the level of August 2024.
GfK Consumer Insights Director Neil Bellamy commented; “The improved sentiment on personal finances is welcome, but there are many clouds on the horizon in the form of inflation – the highest since January 2024 – and rising unemployment. There’s no shortage of speculation, too, about what the autumn Budget will bring in terms of tax rises.
He added; “While August’s Overall Index Score of -17 is the best this year, consumer confidence continues to move in a very narrow band, and there’s no sense that it is about to break out into fresher, more optimistic territory.”
Danske Bank remains wary over the UK outlook and still negative on the Pound. According to the bank; “We increasingly see domestic factors and the relative growth outlook between the UK and the euro area as becoming GBP negatives.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The (Brent) price declined on its last intraday levels, amid the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, attempting to offload this overbought condition, gaining bullish momentum that might assist it to recover and rise again, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the positive pressure that comes from its trading above EMA50, besides the price affection by positive technical formation on the short-term basis, which is represented by the double bottom pattern.
VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (August 18–22, 2025)
BestTradingSignal.com – Professional Trading Signals with high accuracy. Subscribe now to tailored packages for the world’s leading markets and receive signals instantly via Telegram from an expert team:
Check full VIP signals performance report for the week of August 18–22, 2025: Full Report
Selling pressure intensified after President Donald Trump removed Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations related to mortgages. Analysts view the move as a direct challenge to the central bank’s independence.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Cook pushed back against political pressure, stating she had “no intention of being bullied to step down.”
Market participants worry this action could influence the Fed’s decision-making, potentially accelerating interest rate cuts. While investors are not showing signs of panic, expectations for earlier easing are rising.
Rate Cut Bets Grow Ahead of September Meeting
The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 84% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, up sharply from 62% a month ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole reinforced this outlook, noting risks tied to both inflation and a weakening labor market.
The combination of political interference and a dovish policy shift leaves the dollar vulnerable, with traders preparing for renewed downside pressure.
The US dollar rallied a bit against the Japanese yen on Monday, as we are seeing a “rethink” of the entire drop of the market from Friday.
The market continues to see a massive interest rate differential, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is now expected to cut rates multiple times going forward.
However, there are some signs that the cut cycle may not be that long, and of course this would mean that you can continue to see interest in collecting swap at the end of each session.
Technical Analysis
This is a pair that is essentially flat at the moment, and this makes a bit of sense, as the Bank of Japan has a lot to think about, but in the end, they also have the concerns about the Japanese Government Bond markets. There have been a couple days where the bond market had no bids, which of course could put the Bank of Japan in a bit of a bind, where they might have to buy bonds. This of course would be the same thing as “quantitative easing.”
The size of the candlestick on Monday is somewhat impressive, as it goes against the grain of the selling pressure from the Friday session. It is worth nothing that the market bounced from the 50 Day EMA indicator, which attracts a lot of attention in and of itself. This market will be watching the 149 yen level, and if we can break above there, then I believe that the market will continue to see buyers jump in, and it is potentially a situation where “FOMO” could set into the market.
However, if we were to break below the 146 yen level, that would possibly bring in more selling pressure. I suspect that it would be accompanied by US dollar weakness around the Forex world overall.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Gold price faces selling pressure ahead of Fed Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Fed’s Powell is expected to reiterate a “wait and see” approach on the monetary policy outlook.
Traders trim Fed dovish bets ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.3% lower around $3,330.00 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal faces selling pressure as market experts believe that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell could reiterate his argument that a “wait and see” approach on the interest rate outlook is appropriate in the current environment in his speech at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium at 14:00 GMT.
“The most likely scenario is that Powell won’t provide any definitive clues on what the Fed will do next ahead of critical non-farm payrolls and CPI data,” analysts at Commonwealth Bank said.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July monetary policy meeting also showed on Wednesday that a majority of members, including Jerome Powell, underscored the need for time to gain absolute clarity on the “magnitude and persistence of higher tariffs’ effects on inflation”.
Ahead of Fed Powell’s speech, traders have also trimmed bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Fed in the September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has eased to 73.3% from 85.4% seen a week ago.
The maintenance of interest rates at higher levels by the Fed bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Traders raised Fed dovish bets earlier this month after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July, which showed a significant revision in newly employed workers in May and June on the downside.
On the global front, growing uncertainty over peace between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue supporting the Gold price. On Thursday, Moscow launched a mass attack on targets in Ukraine. This came at a time when US President Donald Trump is persuading leaders from both nations to end the three-year-long war.
Gold technical analysis
Gold price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle, which indicates a sharp volatility contraction. The upper border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the April 22 high around $3,500, while the downward border is placed from the May 15 low near $3,180.86.
The yellow metal wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3,351.00, indicating a sideways trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.
Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245.
Alternatively, the Gold price will enter an uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Despite today’s rebound, natural gas remains entrenched in a broader downtrend. Bearish confidence increased after a long-term dynamic support zone was decisively broken on August 12. Following that break, the anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) that once provided support flipped into resistance, capping further upside attempts and leading to fresh selling pressure that drove today’s new trend low.
Measured Move Target Reached
Monday’s decline completed a 100% projection of a falling ABCD pattern at $2.63. While this target often marks a potential pivot, confirmation is lacking. Broader bearish signals remain intact, including the recent break below the April swing low at $2.86, which confirmed trend continuation. Today’s price action shows the market recognized the price level. With larger patterns pointing lower, traders should view the $2.63 level as an interim step within a continuing bearish structure.
Falling Wedge Pattern Developing
Short-term trendlines outlining recent consolidation suggest a possible bullish falling wedge is forming. This pattern would remain valid even if natural gas declines further toward the next lower target zone between $2.54 and $2.51. This range is defined by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.54, reinforced by a declining trendline from the 2023 peak. The confluence of technical factors makes this zone a likely magnet for price action in the near term. Once the price zone is reached, if the wedge remains intact, an upside breakout could signal a bullish reversal.
Outlook: Watching Key Support
Although today’s low matched an ABCD projection, there has been no confirmation of a sustainable pivot. The lower $2.54–$2.51 support zone remains the more technically significant area. Until natural gas can reclaim and hold above $2.72, sellers remain firmly in control, with risk skewed toward a test of deeper support before any meaningful bullish reversal is likely to develop.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
