Despite the stability of the EURJPY pair within the bullish channel’s levels and its fluctuation above the extra support at 172.00, but we notice forming sideways fluctuation by its stability near 172.35 due to stochastic exit from the overbought level and providing negative momentum, to contradict with the suggested bullish scenario.
The stability of the price above the extra support will make it renew the bullish attempts, to target 173.20 and 173.55 level, while the decline below the support will force it to activate the bearish correctional track again, waiting for attacking 170.40 level, which represents the line of confirming the expected trend on the medium period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 172.00 and 173.55
Despite the stability of the EURJPY pair within the bullish channel’s levels and its fluctuation above the extra support at 172.00, but we notice forming sideways fluctuation by its stability near 172.35 due to stochastic exit from the overbought level and providing negative momentum, to contradict with the suggested bullish scenario.
The stability of the price above the extra support will make it renew the bullish attempts, to target 173.20 and 173.55 level, while the decline below the support will force it to activate the bearish correctional track again, waiting for attacking 170.40 level, which represents the line of confirming the expected trend on the medium period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 172.00 and 173.55
Pound Sterling Holds Firm Versus Dollar as Markets Eye BoE and Fed Decisions
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has continued to be held below the 1.3600 resistance area and traded around 1.3550 in European trading on Monday.
According to UoB; “The price movements still appear to be part of a consolidation phase, most likely between 1.3520 and 1.3585.”
It still sees scope for GBP/USD to hit 5-week highs above 1.3620 once the consolidation phase is completed.
ING maintains a positive Pound stance; “Some sticky UK inflation for July looks unlikely to alter the market’s view of the BoE over the coming days. This should keep GBP/USD bid this week, where a break of 1.3585/3600 could see 1.3680/3700 by the end of the week.”
Overall volatility levels remain subdued while equity markets globally have held firm which should help underpin the Pound in global markets.
ING pointed to benign risk conditions; “Without much fanfare, Chinese benchmark equity markets are pushing up to the highest levels in a decade as investors seem happy to look through the impact of tariffs and welcome the prospect of stronger domestic demand in the Rest of the World – powered by rate cuts and looser fiscal policy.”
It added; “With risk assets bid and energy prices offered, we expect the dollar to stay under a little pressure as dollar-based investors continue to put money to work.”
One key economic event will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole economic symposium.
Markets will be expecting hints over the September policy decision.
Traders are now pricing in around a 15% chance that the Fed will not cut rates at the September meeting and Powell’s comments will be crucial for those expectations.
According to ING; “it may be too early for Powell to all but confirm a Fed rate cut in September. Yet when the facts of a ‘solid’ labour market change, Powell will have to acknowledge it.”
Commonwealth Bank of Australia head of international and sustainable economics Joseph Capurso commented; “Given market pricing is very high for a rate cut in September, I think the risk is that Powell is hawkish, or is perceived to be hawkish, if he gives a balanced view of the U.S. economy.”
As far as the UK is concerned, the latest inflation data will be released on Wednesday.
Consensus forecasts are for the headline rate to increase slightly to 3.7% from 3.6% the previous month with the core rate holding at 3.7%.
The data on the services sector will be a key element for expectations surrounding Bank of England (BoE) interest rates.
According to MUFG; “The recent hawkish shift in BoE policy communication has been triggered by concerns over the risk of more persistently higher inflation in the UK.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The short-term picture highlights the 20-Day moving average as a critical resistance line, now sitting near $3.02. A decisive move above today’s $2.92 high would be encouraging, but the real short-term test remains Friday’s $2.97 peak. That level coincided with an anchored VWAP (AVWAP) measured from the long-term 2024 bottom – a line that previously provided support on two occasions during bearish corrections the past year. Its breakdown last week and subsequent test as resistance signals a shift in market control back to sellers. For now, the AVWAP at $2.96 and the declining 20-Day average create a tight overhead resistance zone.
Bulls Need Stronger Confirmation
Reclaiming the 20-Day line is essential for bulls to regain momentum, and even then, natural gas would quickly confront another key barrier at the lower swing high of $3.15. A sustained rally above this zone would signal a potential bullish reversal. Until then, the broader structure still leans bearish, with rallies facing headwinds from declining averages and confirmed resistance zones.
Downside Targets If Support Breaks
On the downside, a drop below Monday’s $2.80 low would indicate fresh weakness, but a confirmed continuation only unfolds if the $2.76 support gives way on a daily close. Should that occur, attention turns to Fibonacci-based targets tied to an extended ABCD pattern from the March peak. The large ABCD projects a 78.6% extension aligning near $2.51, which also matches a 78.6% retracement and a 127.2% target from a smaller ABCD formation. This confluence strengthens the case for $2.51 as the next major bearish objective if support fails.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) was unable to hold above the 1.1700 level on Monday and retreated to near 1.1670.
Dollar sentiment remains weak, but traders are reluctant to extend long Euro positions, especially with major geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Ukraine.
European natural gas prices dipped sharply on Monday, which will provide underlying Euro support.
Markets will be watching developments in Ukraine closely, with scheduled talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump.
Several European heads of state will also be present, with a key focus on whether details can be provided on providing security guarantees for Ukraine.
According to ING; “Any further clarification of this situation today could be welcomed by markets, even though the issue of territory seems intractable.”
UoB commented on EUR/USD; “The recent price action, where the buildup in momentum failed to translate into a clear trending move, has resulted in a mixed outlook. For the time being, we expect EUR to trade a in range, likely between 1.1630 and 1.1755.”
According to Scotiabank; “The multi-month bull trend is intact, and we await a break of the upper-1.17 resistance area. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1650 and 1.1750.”
As well as geo-political developments, markets will also be watching the Federal Reserve very closely with a key summit from Thursday-Saturday.
Danske Bank noted; “the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week with potential policy signals from Powell, given recent data, could prove pivotal for the near-term trajectory of EUR/USD. We continue to prefer fading short-term USD rallies and remain strategically bullish on EUR/USD.”
It has a 12-month forecast of 1.23.
Scotiabank commented; “With many uncertainties to be resolved for policymakers, it’s not clear that Powell will feel he is able to provide as much certainty on the policy outlook this time round, however.”
According to MUFG; “At this month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium market participants will be listening closely to see if Chair Powell validates pricing for rate cuts to resume next month.”
The bank also expressed an element of caution; “The risk is that Chair Powell refrains from providing a clear signal over the timing of the next rate cut giving the Fed more time to continue assessing incoming data before the September FOMC meeting. It could help to dampen downward pressure on the US dollar in the near-term.”
Scotiabank overall remains bearish on the dollar; “We remain negative on the longer run outlook for the USD (the Fed will—eventually—ease even as inflation is likely to remain sticky, US growth momentum will slow, fiscal policy is unsustainable) but more range trading is likely in the short run.”
ING commented; “EUR/USD should stay gently bid in a 1.1650-1.1750 range through the early part of the week, but could make a run at the 1.1830 should Powell prove sufficiently dovish on Friday.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded sideways at the start of the week, holding just below last week’s best levels.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was hovering near $1.3544, almost unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.
The US Dollar (USD) struggled for direction on Monday as a cautiously upbeat market outlook curbed safe-haven demand.
Investors appeared encouraged by signs of progress in peace negotiations, with US President Donald Trump due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside European leaders, in Washington later this week.
This follows Trump’s high-profile meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, where Trump appeared to support Moscow’s proposed peace framework that would see Ukraine concede significant territory.
Although the lack of immediate ceasefire disappointed markets, reports suggesting Russia may accept US security guarantees for Ukraine helped sustain hopes for a future peace agreement.
The Pound (GBP) traded sideways at the start of the week, with the currency taking a breather after marching higher through the first half of August.
The Pound’s recent momentum has been underpinned by hawkish signals from the Bank of England (BoE) alongside stronger-than-expected UK economic data earlier this month.
But with fresh UK data absent on Monday – and some investors taking profit on Friday – the Pound’s momentum has cooled.
GBP/USD Forecast: UK CPI To Provide Next Impetus
Looking forward, attention will turn to the UK’s latest inflation figures due on Wednesday, with little in the calendar for either currency on Tuesday.
Economists expect CPI to have edged higher in July, rising from 3.6% to 3.7%.
Should inflation climb again, it would likely bolster expectations of further BoE hawkishness and offer Sterling fresh support in mid-week trade.
For the US Dollar, focus will shift towards the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.
If policymakers hint at a softer stance on monetary policy, the USD could remain under pressure through the week.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The Federal Open Market Committee will release the Fed Minutes on Wednesday.
A potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine keeps markets waiting.
XAU/USD gains downward traction and nears an intraday low of $3,323.
A firmer US Dollar (USD) puts pressure on Gold prices at the beginning of the week. The XAU/USD pair approaches $3,330 early in the American session, down from an intraday peak of $3,358.45. Political uncertainty undermines the mood on Monday, with investors looking at developments around the Russia-Ukraine war.
On Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump met with Russian leader Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv. The meeting ended without an agreement, although Trump shared on social media over the weekend that the war could end if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decides not to go into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Trump and Zelenskyy are having a meeting later today in Washington, with the focus on a more sustainable peace agreement and not just a ceasefire.
Other than that, investors have little to worry about in the upcoming days. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Wednesday, and may provide market players with some fresh clues on monetary policy. Additionally, the Kansas Fed will host its annual Jackson Hole meeting by the end of the week, with speeches from central banks’ leaders taking centre stage.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it’s trading little changed on a daily basis, although the intraday range is wider than that of Friday. At the same time, a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides dynamic resistance at around $3,352, while the longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes below the current level. The 100 SMA, in fact, acts as support at around $3,307.10. Finally, technical indicators turned modestly lower within neutral territory, suggesting sellers hold the grip but falling short of anticipating another leg lower.
The 4-hour chart shows that XAU/USD aims to retest an early low at $3,323.60, with an increased bearish potential. The pair is currently trading below all its moving averages, which converge in a tight range in the $3,348 price zone. At the same time, technical indicators develop below their midlines with neutral-to-bearish slopes, in line with lower lows ahead.
The EURJPY pair ended the bearish correctional rebound by providing a new positive close above the support at 170.45, which allows it to surpass the negative factors and begin forming bullish waves by its rally above 172.00, forming an intraday obstacle against the positive attempts.
The main stability within the bullish channel’s levels support the chances for resuming the bullish attack, gathering positive momentum makes us expect reaching 173.20, then attempts to press on the barrier at 173.55 to find an exit for resuming the bullish attempts.
The expected trading range for today is between 172.00 and 173.55
Register now to be able to add articles to your reading list.
” aria-hidden=”true”>
Quick overview
The pound is trading around $1.3540 as investors await key meetings involving US and Ukrainian leaders.
Market sentiment may be influenced by the outcome of the Trump-Zelenskyy talks, with potential implications for risk assets.
UK inflation data is also in focus, with expectations of a 3.7% YoY core CPI, which could impact the Bank of England’s policy stance.
Technically, GBP/USD is consolidating within a rising channel, with key resistance at $1.3594 and support at $1.3485.
The pound is trading in a tight range near $1.3540 during the European session as investors wait for several market moving events. The focus is on Washington where US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO leaders will meet.
Last week Trump’s talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin sparked speculation over possible peace terms including a freeze of current front lines. Zelenskyy rejected concessions and now the focus is on the White House talks. For markets even a neutral outcome could support risk appetite and S&P 500 futures are edging higher at 6,460 (+0.13%).
Signs of a truce could lift risk assets further and indirectly help the pound which has been supported by resilient market sentiment.
UK Inflation Data in Focus
Traders are also looking at July’s UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to show core inflation at 3.7% YoY. Persistent price pressures may reinforce the Bank of England’s cautious stance after last week’s 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.25%.
Gilt yields are rising and the pound has limited exposure to global trade tensions. A stronger than expected CPI reading could support GBP/USD while softer inflation would strengthen the case for further BoE easing.
The pound is consolidating near $1.3539 inside a rising channel that started in late July. Price is supported above the 50-period SMA at $1.3545 and the channel base at $1.3485.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
Candlesticks show hesitation with a cluster of small-bodied candles near resistance at $1.3594 indicating market indecision. Momentum is fading: the RSI at 46 is below 50 and the MACD is tightening and could be about to cross bearishly.
Bullish case: Above $1.3594 could extend to $1.3647–$1.3696.
Bearish case: Below $1.3485 targets $1.3442 and $1.3398.
Trade: Wait for confirmation. Above $1.3594 long, below $1.3485 short.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
The GBPJPY pair failed to resume the bearish correctional attack, affected by forming an obstacle at 66.8%Fibonacci correction level at 198.80, forcing it to provide mixed trading by its stability near 199.90.
Note that regaining bullish bias will be by breaching the resistance at 200.65, while holding below it and stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level confirms the dominance of the sideways bias in the current period, to expect the trading confinement between the mentioned main levels, to keep monitoring the price behavior to confirm the trend by surpassing these levels.
The expected trading range for today is between 198.85 and 200.60
