• EUR/USD trades in negative territory below 1.1650 on Friday.
• The near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum.
• The US economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.1650 in the European session on Friday, after closing virtually unchanged on Thursday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook highlights buyers’ hesitancy.

The US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand on Thursday but EUR/USD found it difficult to gather bullish momentum. The sharp decline seen in the EUR/GBP cross, following the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision to cut the policy rate by a slim majority, showed that Pound Sterling captured capital outflows out of the Euro. Early Friday, EUR/GBP continues to stretch lower and loses about 0.3% on the day after falling 0.6% on Thursday, not allowing the Euro to gather strength.

The US economic calendar will not offer any macroeconomic data releases that could drive the USD’s valuation heading into the weekend. Hence, investors could pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials and the risk perception.

At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.2% and 0.3% on the day. A bullish action in Wall Street after the opening bell could limit the USD’s gains and help EUR/USD find support. On the flip side, the pair could stay on the back foot in case markets adopt a cautious stance in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD failed to stabilize above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreated below 60, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.

On the downside, 1.1620 (100-period SMA) aligns as the first support level before 1.1540-1.1550 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend, 50-period SMA) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1650-1.1660 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 200-period SMA), 1.1700 (static level, round level) and 1.1760 (static level).

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Eases on Fed Chair Speculation

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) posted 10-day highs just above 1.3435 following the Bank of England policy decision. The Pound overall held firm, but GBP/USD failed to hold its peak levels and edged lower as the US currency secured a tentative recovery in global markets.

Latest reports from the US suggest that current Federal Reserve Governor Waller is now the leading candidate to become the next Fed Chair to succeed Powell next year.

Waller had previously been a hawkish member on the Fed Board, but changed his stance this year and voted to cut rates at the July meeting.

There is little doubt that Waller would advocate for lower interest rates in the near term, but his appointment would ease fears of a very aggressive policy to cut rates.

There is, however, still the risk that Trump will not follow his team’s advice and he also still has to nominate a replacement for Governor Kugler who will leave her post on Friday.

As far as US data is concerned, initial jobless claims increased to 226,000 in the latest week from 219,000 previously while continuing claims increased to 1.97mn from a revised 1.94mn previously which suggests gradual labour-market deterioration.

Markets are pricing close to a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the September meeting and the most likely outcome is for three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

The Pound overall has held firm in global markets following the relatively hawkish Bank of England rate cut.

Markets are no longer confident that there will be a further rate cut at the November meeting.

MUFG head of research for global markets Derek Halpenny commented; “Based on the voting composition in this MPC meeting (5-4 versus 5-2-2 in May) and other elements of today’s announcement this is obviously a more hawkish policy announcement and we have seen some of the expectations for a Nov rate cut taken out of the market.

It added; “It’s clear that the pick-up in the estimate of inflation peaking at 4.0% has made some uncomfortable with the idea of continued steady easing.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

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STORY LINK Euro to US Dollar Forecast: “Upward Bias, for Now”

Fed Fears Continue to Drive the Dollar Lower, EUR/USD Nears 1.17 on Ukraine hopes

The dollar has remained firmly on the defensive while hope for progress in Ukraine ceasefire talks have underpinned the Euro with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate strengthening to 10-day highs near 1.1690.

According to UoB; “The increase in momentum suggests EUR is likely to trade with an upward bias for now. Currently, it is unclear whether if it can reach 1.1720. To sustain the momentum, EUR must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.1560.”

ING commented; “On EUR/USD, our call for today is neutral, but the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside, even beyond 1.170.”

Federal Reserve appointments will remain a key element for the dollar and wider markets.

President Trump has pledged to announce a replacement for Board member Kugler by the end of this week.

There is still uncertainty whether Trump will look to nominate someone to just serve the remainder of Kugler’s term until January or whether he will look to nominate the next Fed Chair with this pick.

National Australia Bank (NAB) head of FX research Ray Attrill commented; “if Trump is going to make an announcement about who he wants to fill the vacant board seat, depending on how credible (the markets) view that candidate to be, I think that has the potential to prompt some reaction across everything.”

He added; “For me, that’s potentially the biggest swing factor for the next sort of 48 hours or so.”

There are still important concerns over political interference in central bank policymaking.

According to IG market analyst Tony Sycamore; “All those things suggest that we’re seeing those political risks around the U.S. dollar increase, and on top of that you’ve got the weak data coming through.”

Markets remain very confident that the central bank will cut interest rates at the September meeting with markets pricing in around a 93% chance of a cut.

NAB’s Attrill injected a note of caution; “At the moment, I think we’re sort of the view that maybe there’s a bit too much confidence in the market about the certainty of a September move.”

On the Euro side of the equation some hopes for progress in peace talks surrounding the Russia/Ukraine war have provided an element of support for the single currency.

On ECB monetary policy ING commented; “It would appear that the bar for additional rate cuts in the eurozone has been raised.”

The latest German data, however, was weaker than expected with industrial production declining 1.9% for June compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.4% retreat.

According to ING; “tariffs will impact the eurozone just as their adverse effects will be seen in America, and the ECB may be premature in declaring any victory. In this global economic power play, eurozone monetary policy offers a rare moment of calm.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades above 1.3350 in the European session on Thursday.
• The BoE is widely expected to cut the policy rate by 25 bps.
• The technical outlook points to a bullish tilt in the near term.

GBP/USD holds its ground and trades above 1.3350 after posting strong gains on Wednesday. Investors stay on the sidelines while waiting for the Bank of England (BoE) to announce monetary policy decisions.

The renewed selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) allowed GBP/USD to gather bullish momentum on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats revived concerns over the US economic outlook and weighed on the USD.

Trump issued an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports and said that he could impose an extra 25% tariff on Chinese goods over China’s purchases of Russian oil. Additionally, he said that he will impose a 100% tariff on semiconductors and chips, but not for companies that are building in the US.

Later in the day, the BoE is widely expected to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%. The vote-split could trigger an immediate market reaction ahead of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference.

Previewing the BoE event, “given the resurgence in inflation, and the risk of second-order effects, we expect a couple of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members vote for a hold; at the same time, persistently weak labour-market data raises the risk of one or two members voting for a 50bps cut,” said Standard Chartered’s economist Christopher Graham and added: “A divided MPC would support our view of a gradual approach to further easing, with the quarterly pace of cuts (in play since the start of the easing cycle) continuing.”

In case the vote-split shows that three or four members preferred a hold, Pound Sterling could preserve its strength. Conversely, GBP/USD could turn south if two or more members of the MPC voted in favor of a bigger rate cut.

Meanwhile, the US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. A noticeable decline could help the USD limit its losses in the near term. On the other hand, a significant increase, with a reading above 240K, could further weigh on the USD and allow GBP/USD to stretch higher.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60, suggesting that GBP/USD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought.

On the upside, 1.3385-1.3400 (upper limit of the descending regression channel, 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), round level) forms a key resistance area before 1.3460 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).

Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.3300 (50-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), 1.3250 (static level) and 1.3200 (static level, round level).

Created on August 07, 2025

• The US dollar initially did try to rally it during the trading session here on Wednesday to test the 200-day EMA.
• That being said, we turned around to show signs of hesitation, and at this point, it’s probably worth noting that the market is basically hanging around between the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA.

More importantly, I think what you need to keep in mind is that the 148 yen level above is an area that has been difficult to crack. And if we did do that, then I think you have a very real shot at this market going higher. Ultimately, the 151 yen level gets targeted. On the other hand, though, if we turn around and break down below the 50 day EMA, then it’s possible that we could look into the 146 yen level, opening up the possibility of even deeper corrections.

But I do think that the 146 yen level is an area where we would see a lot of support. If we break it, then that changes my opinion. But as things stand right now, we essentially have a scenario where the interest rate differential still favors the United States.

Swap Will Matter Long Term

So, then I think you’ve got a situation where if you are willing to wait to get paid, you probably will. After all, you’ll be collecting swap at the end of every day. And I think a lot of institutional traders do prefer this. That being said, there are concerns about whether or not the Federal Reserve will have to cut multiple times. But right now, the economic numbers aren’t good for the United States, but they’re not horrible either.

That sets up the market for perhaps an ugly surprise later this year. We’ll just have to wait and see. This has been a brutal four or five days in the sense that we look like we were ready to go much higher and then just crash, but now we’re stable. And that’s generally the first sign of the market turning back around.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.