Copper price continued to form bearish trading, to reach the target at $4.2600 forming an intraday support against the current trading, despite the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, the attempt of providing negative momentum from the main indicators that might push the price to press on the current support, while breaking it will extend the losses to $4.1600 reaching the support of the bullish channel at $4.0550.
Reminding you that activating the bullish attack again requires forming several bullish waves, to settle above $4.7400 level, to ease the mission of recording several gains that might begin at $4.9800.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.1600 and $4.6200
This week’s drop confirmed a failure of a bull pennant pattern. Since it is a trend continuation pattern, a breakdown shows a weakening of the near-term uptrend and the potential for a correction greater than what was seen most recently. Gold is now below the 50-Day MA, with the 200-Day MA becoming a possibility. The 200-Day line is currently at $3,003.
Target Around $3,072
The first pullback from the $3,500 record high reached in April was an approximate match with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a successful test of support at the 50-Day MA. A falling ABCD pattern points to a possible minimum downside target of $3,072. That would exceed the 38.2% level at $3,139. Notice that the 50% retracement target is a little lower at $3,041. So, the $3,072 to $3,041 levels can be seen as a potential zone of support.
Bearish Until $3,334 Reclaimed
A sustained rally above $3,334 would be needed before there were signs of a potential failed breakdown. Moreover, moving averages are in the process of confirming bearish indications. Both the 20-Day and 50-Day MA have converged with the trendline at the bottom of the pennant and will be crossing below the line. They also show potentially strong resistance.
Weekly Bearish Confirmation
The weekly chart confirms the bearish potential for gold short-term as a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern triggered earlier in week and led to a four-week low of $3,268. A three-week lower close looks likely this week as the sellers remain in charge on a weekly basis. But on the weekly chart gold is at a potentially significant support level as the low for the week hit the 20-Week MA for the first time since it was reclaimed in January. This is one of the reasons to also consider a bullish scenario regardless of how clear the bearish side looks.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
A decisive rally above today’s high will trigger a one-day bullish reversal, confirmed by a daily close above it. But an advance above the recent lower swing high at $3.19 presents a more reliable level to indicate that demand is improving and may continue. An advance above $3.19 will trigger a bullish reversal of the short-term decline that began from the $3.63 swing high. If triggered, the 20-Day MA, now at $3.29 and falling, is the first upside target and it could easily be surpassed if demand continues to improve.
Second Target 200-Day MA
Subsequently, the area around the 200-Day MA, currently at $3.64, identifies the next upside target. Particularly, given that the 50-Day MA just converged with the 200-Day line and they identify a similar price level as possible resistance. An AVWAP line that began off the April swing low, also shows support around those two lines. Given the confluence of indicators, the price zone could potentially act like a magnet as price is drawn towards it. Nevertheless, it identifies a potentially significant pivot zone, as a decisive rally above it will signal a breakout and further confirm strength.
Long-Term Support Holds
The establishment of support near the long-term trendline shows the possible completion of the bearish correction that began following the trend high of $4.90 in March. Notice that the volatility of the long-term uptrend has been contained within a large rising parallel trend channel (purple).
Resistance was successfully tested multiple times at the beginning of year, eventually leading to a sustained correction. Given the symmetrical nature of the channel, a bounce off one side points to the other side. Once the other side is reached, as happened today with a touch of the bottom of the channel, a move to the other side is possible.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This ambiguity disappointed markets that had priced in a high probability of monetary easing in the third quarter. As expectations reset, the U.S. Dollar Index jumped over 0.5%, adding further headwinds to precious metals.
Gold Faces Pressure from Strong Economic Data
The ADP National Employment report showed private sector payrolls rose by 324,000 in July, far exceeding forecasts. While some indicators of labor softening linger, the data broadly suggests resilience in the job market.
This strength reinforces the Fed’s wait-and-see stance and weakens the investment case for non-yielding assets like gold.
“Powell is staying the course on inflation even as employment data shows mixed signals,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. “Gold may retrace further, but long-term support remains intact due to macroeconomic uncertainty, rising U.S. debt levels, and de-dollarization trends.”
Silver Extends Losses Amid Risk Reassessment
Silver plunged 3.2%, briefly touching a three-week low as traders digested the Fed’s tone and adjusted for reduced policy easing expectations. The metal, more volatile and industrially sensitive than gold, remains vulnerable to shifts in growth sentiment.
With real yields firming and the dollar gaining strength, both gold and silver face near-term headwinds. However, geopolitical uncertainties and fiscal imbalances continue to offer a supportive backdrop for long-term investors.
The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is trading at around 1.15637 on Thursday, as Sterling underperforms against the majors, including the US Dollar.
Credit Agricole, however, sees scope for a further GBP/EUR rebound and added; “Looking at yield spreads, the bank considers that GBP/EUR should be trading above 1.1765.”
Scotiabank noted the potential for further position adjustment; “Extended bullish positioning has also left the EUR vulnerable to adjustment, as shown in the most recent CFTC report that saw the sizeable $18.4bn EUR long hold steady at the upper end of its historical range.”
There are still reservations over Pound fundamentals which will tend to curb the scope for further buying.
Markets remain very confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% next week.
The BoE data on Tuesday recorded a stronger pace of consumer lending for June. RSM UK chief economist Thomas Pugh commented; “Overall, money and credit data give a tentative sign of consumer spending picking up a little, and of business sentiment improving, however, growth will still be weak in Q2.”
He added; “For now, the MPC is likely to focus on that weaker growth outlook, meaning a rate cut in August is the odds-on bet.”
Credit Agricole notes that several price increases have already been priced in and commented; “We therefore believe that many BoE-related negatives are in the price of the GBP and do not expect the currency to extend its recent downtrend.”
It added; “The conclusion is consistent with our recent FX positioning data that suggests that the GBP is starting to look oversold and the results from our short-term fair value model that signalled that EUR/GBP is looking expensive at current levels.”
As far as Euro-Zone data is concerned, German GDP recorded a 0.1% contraction for the second quarter of 2025 after 0.4% growth previously which was in line with consensus forecasts. Year-on-year growth of 0.4% was above expectations of 0.2%.
ING commented; “All in all, despite the recent optimism, today’s GDP data is a painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth. The economy’s flirtation with yet another year of stagnation continues.”
Italy also recorded 0.1% GDP contraction for the second quarter.
The Euro-Zone recorded 0.1% GDP growth for the second quarter, marginally above consensus forecasts of no change with year-on-year growth of 1.4%.
Elsewhere, the headline Spanish inflation rate increased to 2.7% for July from 2.3% previously and above consensus forecasts of 2.3%.
The Euro-Zone business and consumer survey recorded an increase to a 5-month high of 95.8 for July from 94.2 in June and above expectations of 94.5.
The Euro-Zone inflation data is due on Friday with expectations that the headline rate will edge lower to 1.9% from 2.0% in June.
Higher inflation would tend to discourage further interest rate cuts and offer some Euro support.
Trade developments will continue to be monitored closely and could still spark increased volatility.
MUFG noted that there are still a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the US-EU trade deal as it is still a political declaration rather than an economic agreement at this stage. This could lead to renewed volatility in global markets.
According to the bank; “So, it’s clear from this deal and the lack of detail in parts of the US-Japan deal that ongoing negotiations are likely which may well include renewed threats in the future over tariff rates.”
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USD/JPY reverses an intraday dip led by upbeat data from Japan and the BoJ’s hawkish pause.
The uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike continues to undermine the JPY.
Reduced bets for a September rate cut by the Fed act as a tailwind for the USD and spot prices.
The USD/JPY pair attracted fresh buyers following an intraday slide to the 148.60-148.55 region and touched its highest level since early April during the first half of the European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on its gains, led by the upbeat domestic macro data and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hawkish pause. This, along with the underlying US Dollar (USD) bullish sentiment, turns out to be a key factors acting as a tailwind for the currency pair.
A preliminary government report showed that Industrial Production in Japan unexpectedly rose 1.7% from the previous month in June, signaling resilience among manufacturers despite headwinds from US trade tariffs. A separate report revealed that Retail Sales in Japan grew for the 39th consecutive month, by 2.0% year-on-year in June, compared to the previous month’s downwardly revised reading of 1.9% and better than market expectations. The latter suggested that private consumption in Japan remained strong, which, along with the US-Japan trade deal, keeps hopes alive for the BoJ rate hike later this year.
In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking to reporters during the post-meeting press conference, said that Japan’s economy is recovering moderately and that the US-Japan trade deal reduces uncertainty over the economic outlook. Earlier, the central bank, as was expected, decided to maintain the status quo at the end of the July meeting. In the accompanying policy statement, the BoJ reiterated that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast. Adding to this, an upward revision of the BoJ’s inflation forecast revived bets for a further monetary policy tightening by the year-end.
The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be limited amid the growing acceptance that signs of cooling inflation in Japan and political uncertainty would complicate the BoJ’s policy normalization path. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s loss in the July 20 polls fueled concerns about Japan’s fiscal health amid calls from the opposition to boost spending and cut taxes. This suggests that prospects for BoJ rate hikes could be delayed for a bit longer. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell tempered hopes for an immediate rate cut, which favours the USD bulls and supports the USD/JPY pair.
In fact, Powell said it was too soon to say whether the Fed would cut rates at its next meeting and that the current modestly restrictive monetary policy has not been holding back the economy. Earlier on Wednesday, the US central bank left interest rates unchanged in a split decision that saw two governors dissenting for the first time since 1993. The market focus now shifts to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index later during the North American session. The crucial inflation data will influence the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY daily chart
Technical Outlook
The USD/JPY pair is now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and could aim to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark amid positive oscillators on the daily chart. The momentum could extend further towards the next relevant hurdle near the 150.40 area before spot prices eventually climb to the 151.00 round figure.
On the flip side, the 149.00 mark now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further corrective slide might continue to attract dip-buyers and find decent support near the 148.55 region. A convincing break below the latter, however, could drag the USD/JPY pair to the 148.00 mark and the overnight swing low, around the 147.80 area. Some follow-through selling would expose the 147.00 mark and the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the 146.70 region. The latter coincides with last week’s swing low, which, if broken, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.
Natural gas price returned to form new negative trading affected by stochastic negativity, providing strong pressures on the critical support at $3.050, which represents the head and shoulders pattern.
Note that breaking the current support will confirm activating the negative pattern, to move to a new negative track, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching $2.710 and $2.390, for regaining the bullish bias we recommend waiting for providing positive close above $3.320 to ease achieving several gains that might begin at $3.450 and $3.610.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.710 and $3.150.
Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
Copper price is under strong bearish pressure to push it to decline below the support at $5.3200, to lose most of its previous gains to reach $4.3900, to face the moving average of 55.
Despite the main stability within the main bullish channel’s levels, the contradiction between the main indicators may increase the chances for suffering extra losses by targeting 161%Fibonacci extension level at $4.2650, while renewing the bullish attempts requires stepping above $4.7400 level, providing chance for recording gains again.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.5200
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
