– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Set for Gains in Early 2026

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) dipped to three-month lows at 1.1470 during the week, but has since recovered to around 1.1575 amid concerns over the US government shutdown and the US labour market.

Forecasts from SocGen and MUFG suggest EUR/USD will strengthen to 1.20 in early 2026, but the outlook remains clouded by ongoing uncertainty over the US economy.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Shutdown fears

Foreign exchange strategists at SocGen forecast that the Euro to US Dollar rate will strengthen to 1.20 in the first quarter of 2026, but won’t be able to sustain the gains with a retreat to 1.14 by the end of 2026.

MUFG also expects EUR/USD will strengthen to 1.20 early next year but expects dollar weakness will continue during the year with a third-quarter forecast of 1.26.

EUR/USD dipped to 3-month lows at 1.1470 during the week before a recovery to around 1.1575 amid fresh concerns surrounding the US labour market.

At this stage, markets are pricing in just over a 65% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December.

There is, however, major uncertainty over the outlook with the on-going government shutdown amplifying the lack of clarity and increasing reservations.

MUFG comented; “There is no end in sight to the shutdown and the longer this drags on the bigger the economic implication will be.”

It expects; “Renewed USD depreciation by yearend and in 2026.”

Challenger reported that layoffs in October surged 175% from a year ago to 153,074, the highest October figure for 20 years. For the first 10 months of the year, layoffs have increased 65% from the previous year to around 1.1mn.

ADP, however, did register an increase in private payrolls of 42,000 for October after a revised 29,000 decline the previous month.

The dollar will be notably vulnerable if there is evidence of serious labour-market deterioration. The narrative will, however, be different if the economy is resilient and growth holds firm.

SocGen commented; “If the growth differential returns to wider levels, more in line with the average of the last decade, why would the euro not drift back towards that longer-term average? It will get some support from narrower rate differentials, but even those suggest EUR/USD ought to be lower than it is today.”

According to ING; “We think it’s too early to call time on the dollar bear trend and the EUR/USD rally. The house call is for three more Fed rate cuts, and there is much uncertainty over both the shape of the US labour market and whether political pressure will bear down on the Fed next year.”

The bank added; “Our 1.20 forecast for EUR/USD for the end of this year is now a bit of a stretch. But year-end seasonality and the true state of the US jobs market should be supportive. And some modest gains next year are still the preferred call.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

Created on November 10, 2025

• The British pound strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday, stabilizing near the 50-day EMA after retesting the 200 yen level.
• With the BoE holding firm and the yen remaining weak, bullish momentum may extend toward 204 yen.

The British pound has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during trading on Friday as the market continues to see a lot of volatility in general. We are sitting right around the 50-day EMA, which of course, is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. It’s worth noting that the last couple of days have broken below the 200 yen level.

The 200 yen level is an area that is a large, round, and psychologically significant figure, but it was also the beginning of the gap that we just filled. By filling this gap, it does look like we’re doing everything we can to continue the uptrend, and with the Bank of England showing a little bit of hesitation to cut rates, this gives us more of a reason to think that the pound may actually be okay by the time it’s all said and done.

Keep in mind that the Japanese yen is very weak in general, and I think that’s the main driver of what happens here. The Japanese yen has been extraordinarily weak, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon, given the fact that the Bank of Japan has no real shot at trying to tighten monetary policy. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time should continue to be buying opportunities, and I do think that eventually we’ll go looking to the 204 yen level.

If we broke down below the 199 yen level, then we would test the 200-day EMA, which is a major indicator as well. Anything below there really opens up the downside, and we could see this market completely fall apart.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The EURJPY pair affected by stochastic positivity, form bullish waves to retest the barrier at 177.85, to settle below it to keep the chances of activating the bearish corrective track, note that the initial corrective target in the current trading near 177.05 level, by providing negative momentum that might help it to reach near 175.85 support.

While confirming regaining the bullish bias requires forming a new bullish rally, to open the way a new chance to press on the top at 178.70. surpassing it will make it record new gains by its rally towards 179.30 and 180.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 177.00 and 178.15

Trend forecast: Bearish.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK British Pound to Dollar Forecast: BoE Easing Outlook to Cap GBP/USD Gains

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate recovered modestly to around 1.3165 after testing six-month lows near 1.30, but upside momentum remains fragile as investors weigh the growing risk of a December Bank of England rate cut.

GBP/USD Forecasts: December BoE cut?

Credit Agricole now forecasts that the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will be held to 1.32 by the end of 2026.

Rabobank has a 12-month forecast of 1.35.

GBP/USD dipped sharply to 6-month lows at 1.3000 during the week before a recovery to 1.3165 as the dollar retraced gains.

Credit Agricole commented; “We revise down our GBP forecasts for a second time this year because downside risks to the UK growth outlook have intensified further and fuelled expectations of more aggressive BoE easing from here, in a blow to the GBP across the board.”

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.00%, but there was a dovish vote split and comments from Governor Bailey suggested that he will back a cut in December once the budget has been delivered.

Danske Bank commented; “We now expect the BoE to deliver the next cut in the Bank Rate in December, where we also think fresh government spending cuts will call for further easing.”

The bank, however, expects only one further cut next year; “we expect the April meeting to conclude the easing cycle with the Bank Rate at 3.50%.”

Rabobank notes the dovish shift and hints from Bailey that he would back a cut next month. The bank is still hesitant to bring forward the call for the next rate cut from February to December.

It did, however, add; “if the Budget delivers front-loaded and meaningful consolidation, it could strengthen the MPC’s confidence that rates can be cut further. That, in turn, could prompt us to revise our forecast and bring the next cut forward to December.”

The US labour-market data was mixed during the week.

ADP reported an increase in private payrolls of 42,000 for October following a revised 29,000 decline the previous month.

Challenger, however, reported a surge in layoffs for October with an increase of 175% from the previous year.

The government shutdown continued which increased uncertainty over the current situation and triggered fresh reservations over the outlook, both factors undermining the dollar.

Investment banks are increasingly uncertain over the outlook amid the lack of official data.

Rabobank commented; “Clearly it is difficult for Fed officials and the market to form strong opinions on how the US economy is developing given the near absence of fresh, official US data. That said, Powell’s remark at his October press conference that he does not see the weakening in the labour market accelerating is a warning to USD bears.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts