Copper price declined in its last intraday trading, due to the stability of the resistance level at $5.89, attempting to look for a rising low to take it as a base that might assist it to gain the required positive momentum to help it to breach this resistance, to lean on the support of a minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, amid the continuation of the positive pressure that comes from its trading above EMA50, besides the (RSI) reach to oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price movement, suggesting the beginning of forming positive divergence, intensifying the positive pressure on the price.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its intraday trading, especially when breaching the mentioned resistance at $5.89, to target the next resistance level at $6.1820.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7344 and $6.0500

Trend forecast: Bullish

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• GBP/USD trades in negative territory below 1.3500 after posting losses on Thursday.
• The technical outlook highlights a buildup of bearish momentum in the short term.
• Retail Sales in the UK rose at a softer pace than expected in June.

GBP/USD came under bearish pressure on Thursday and lost more than 0.5%, snapping a three-day winning streak in the process. The pair extends its slide on Friday and trades below 1.3500.

The renewed US Dollar (USD) strength weighed on GBP/USD on Thursday. The US Department of Labor reported that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined to 217,000 in the week ending July 19 from 221,000 in the previous week. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 227,000. Additionally, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 54.6 (preliminary) in July from 52.9 in June, reflecting an ongoing expansion in the private sector’s business activity, at an accelerating pace.

Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP cross rose more than 0.3% on Thursday as the Euro benefited from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious tone on policy-easing. EUR/GBP preserves its bullish momentum and trades at its highest level since early April above 0.8700 on Friday, suggesting that the Euro continues to capture capital outflows out of Pound Sterling.

Early Friday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales rose by 0.9% on a monthly basis in June. This reading followed the 2.8% decrease recorded in May but came in worse than the market expectation for an increase of 1.2%, making it difficult for GBP/USD to stage a rebound.

In the second half of the day, Durable Goods Orders data for June will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar. Nevertheless, this data is unlikely to have a long-lasting impact on the USD’s valuation.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD broke below the 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator dropped below 40, pointing to a bearish tilt in the near term.

In case GBP/USD confirms 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) as resistance, 1.3400 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be seen as the next support level before 1.3340. On the upside, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3520 (100-period SMA) and 1.3540-1.3550 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).

• The US dollar initially fell during the trading session on Thursday but then found enough support near the 50-day EMA to really get things moving and open up the possibility of a rebound.
• The 50-day EMA sits right there at the 146 yen level as well, and I think that is something worth noting and maybe even something you can use in your analysis.

Ultimately, this is a market that given enough time, I believe probably opens up the possibility of a move towards the 200 day EMA, which sits right around the 148 yen level. This is how I have been approaching it. The market participants out there will continue to look at this through the prism of interest rate differential over the longer term, and with so much foreign capital flowing into the United States, it does make a certain amount of sense that the US dollar benefits against the Japanese yen specifically. That being said, if we break the 148 yen level, it then opens up the possibility of a move to the 149 yen level where we had peaked recently. I would anticipate a lot of issues in that area if we can get there.

On a Move Lower

A breakdown below the 50 day EMA opens up the possibility of a move down to the 144 yen level, but that’s not necessarily something that I’m looking for at the moment. I recognize this is a market that will probably continue to be very noisy and choppy, but that is typical for this pair regardless.

So with that, I like this buying of the dip as we had tried to break out, but overall, I think this is probably more of a grind to the upside and it will take significant time to reach its destination.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

July 24, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Sterling Pressured by Weak UK PMI, Upbeat US Labour Figures

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate lost ground on Thursday following the release of the UK’s latest PMI data and the US’s initial jobless claims and PMIs.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3539, down roughly 0.3% from the start of Thursday’s session.

The Pound (GBP) stumbled against its peers on Thursday as lacklustre UK PMI data for July weighed heavily on the currency.

Although the manufacturing sector showed a modest improvement, with the index rising from 47.7 to 48.2, it remained stuck in contraction territory (a reading below 50), and failed to inspire investor confidence.

However, it was the disappointing services PMI that proved most damaging to Sterling on Thursday.

As the UK’s largest economic sector, services play a vital role in shaping overall growth.

July’s flash reading unexpectedly dropped to 51.2 from 52.8, falling short of the projected uptick to 53, and sparked concerns about slowing momentum in the economy.

This underwhelming performance prompted traders to increase bets on an interest rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE), a shift in sentiment that saw GBP retreat across the board as the session progressed.

The US Dollar (USD) advanced against several major peers on Thursday, buoyed by stronger-than-expected labour market data.

Initial jobless claims dipped to 217,000 in the week ending 19 July, beating expectations for a rise to 227,000.

The decline signalled ongoing resilience in the US jobs market and lent early support to the ‘Greenback’.

Later in the day, the US published its latest S&P Global flash PMIs for July.

The services index surprised to the upside, jumping from 52.9 to 55.2 and suggested solid momentum in the service sector.

However, gains were tempered by a weaker manufacturing print, which fell into contraction territory for the first time this year, slipping to 49.5 against forecasts of 52.6.

Despite the mixed PMI release, the US Dollar maintained its positive footing throughout the remainder of the session.

Looking ahead to Friday, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to be shaped by a pair of key economic releases from the UK and the US.

For the UK, focus will fall on June’s retail sales figures.

Economists are forecasting a rebound, with sales expected to rise by 1.2% following the sharp 2.7% contraction seen in May.

A strong print would suggest that consumer activity is picking up, which may boost confidence in the UK’s economic outlook and lend support to the Pound heading into the weekend.

Across the Atlantic, the spotlight will be on the US’s latest durable goods orders.

After a sharp jump in May, orders are forecast to slump by 10.8% in June.

If the data matches expectations, it could weigh heavily on the US Dollar by fuelling concerns about a slowdown in broader economic momentum.

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July 24, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Can EUR/USD Challenge 45-Month Best?

The dollar posted sharp losses on Tuesday with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate surging to 2-week highs just above 1.1750 before settling just below this level with Administration rhetoric against Federal Reserve still sapping support while there is solid underlying Euro demand.

According to UoB, the Euro is looking a bit stretched; “While there is potential for EUR to rise above 1.1765 today, overbought conditions suggest it might not be able to hold above this level.”

ING is not convinced that EUR/USD can hold above 1.1700.

Danske Bank maintains a positive long-term outlook on EUR/USD for a move above 1.20 for the first time since June 2021; “While EU-US trade negotiations may introduce near-term volatility, long-term drivers such as relative rates, capital flows into European assets, and global monetary conditions continue to support the cross.”

Overnight, President Trump announced that the US had reached a framework trade deal with Japan.

There will be a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US while Japan has committed to purchases of aircraft and rice.

Japan also pledged a $550bn sovereign wealth fund to invest in the US, although there will be scepticism that this will make much headway.

ING discusses the weak dollar performance. It noted the possibility that trade jitters were a significant factor in undermining the currency, but considers that the overall price action makes this unlikely.

According to the bank; “This week’s losses could somehow represent a catch-up with some lower US yields seen last week or merely represent some investor re-allocation out of the US and into say Europe or Emerging Markets on a global growth play.”

It added; “we suspect that EUR/USD demand is related to the ongoing rotation out of assets in the equity, government bond and credit space. Indeed, news from the credit space is that global investors are showing a keener interest in euro-denominated products, and issuers are obliging.”

Federal Reserve policy and the threat of political intimidation remains an important underlying market element.

There has been some walking back from calls for Fed Chair Powell’s immediate departure, but no let-up in attacks on Fed policy.

In comments on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that there was no need for Powell to step down immediately as he will be leaving in May anyway.

Markets are still concerned that Powell is under threat.

Schwab senior fixed income strategist Kathy Jones commented; “You can criticize the Fed for many of its policy moves over the years. But pushing the Fed chair out because he won’t follow White House instructions is a step too far.”

She added; “It will undermine confidence in the central bank at a time when inflation is still too high, and policy is a confusing mix of priorities. If Powell is replaced by someone who is seen as doing the administration’s bidding, it would likely lead to a weaker dollar and much higher long-term interest rates.”

There are very strong expectations that the ECB will leave interest rates at 2.00% on Thursday with guidance likely to be crucial for the market reaction.

According to ING, there is some risk of a Euro retreat; “We think a relatively quiet July meeting could feature some heightened scrutiny on how comfortable policymakers would be with another euro rally. FX considerations may not make their way to official communication, but could help tilt the balance to a more dovish overall tone.”

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