The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last trading on the intraday basis, in an attempt to recover some of its previous losses, attempting to offload some of its clear oversold conditions on the relative strength indicators, amid the effect of breaking the critical support of $3,435, this support represents our expected target in our previous analysis, amid the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive minor trend line for this track.

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The EURJPY pair activated the bearish corrective track by reaching the extra support at 177.05, by the above image, we notice suffering some losses by attacking 176.50 level, to form mixed trading by its stability near 176.35.

Note that the continuation of the price fluctuation below the broken support and providing negative momentum by stochastic that supports the chances of resuming the negative corrective attempts, which might target 175.15 level reaching the support of the bullish channel at 174.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 175.15 and 176.65

Trend forecast: Bearish by the stability of 177.05

US Economic Data and Fed Outlook

While traders consider intervention threats and the chances of a BoJ rate hike, US economic indicators could trigger USD/JPY price volatility on Wednesday, November 5. Two key economic reports may affect expectations for a Fed rate cut in December.

ADP Employment Report

Economists forecast the ADP to report employment to rise by 24k in October after falling by 32k in September. A larger-than-expected increase may temper bets on further policy easing in December, potentially sending USD/JPY toward 155.

On the other hand, an unexpected fall in employment could overshadow concerns about inflation and raise bets on a December cut. A more dovish Fed rate path may send USD/JPY toward 150.

ISM Services PMI

While labor market data will influence the Fed’s rate path, services sector data could have a greater impact, given that the sector accounts for around 80% of US GDP.

Economists expect the ISM Services PMI to rise from 50.0 in September to 50.7 in October. A higher PMI reading, combined with rising prices, could support a more hawkish Fed policy stance, sending USD/JPY toward 155. Conversely, a drop below the 50 neutral level and softer services sector inflation may revive expectations of a December cut. A more dovish Fed rate path could push the pair below 153, exposing the 150 level.

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Slides Below 1.15 as Fed Uncertainty Lingers

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate fell to fresh three-month lows below 1.1500 on Tuesday, as a strong US Dollar extended its advance amid renewed risk aversion and persistent concerns over tightening global liquidity.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Fresh 3-Month Lows

The dollar has maintained a firm tone against the Pound and Euro in global markets with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate dipping to fresh 3-month lows below the 1.1500 level.

There has been a significant setback for equities which hampered the Euro to some extent.

There are also concerns over tighter liquidity conditions which will continue to support the US currency; According to Credit Agricole; “Persistent USD liquidity premium could add to the costs of short-USD hedges and its rate advantage across the board in the near term.”

According to UoB further losses may be limited; “While positive divergence is still apparent, EUR may just have enough momentum to test 1.1490 today before the risk of a recovery increases.”

It added; “We remain optimistic on a rally into year-end to 1.18-1.20, but until US data gives the go-ahead for a rebound, there aren’t other obvious bullish drivers for EUR/USD.”

Overall interest rate trends will remain a key influence, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty over the US outlook.

According to Scotiabank; “It is probably helping the USD and not helping risk sentiment that a cloud of uncertainty has descended over the Fed policy outlook.”

The latest US data suggested that manufacturing remained in contraction territory for October.

ING commented; “The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the US industrial sector remains under pressure from weak growth and tariff-related uncertainty. The one consolation is that inflation pressures appear to be easing, but the Fed hawks will want to see broader evidence of this before backing a December rate cut.”

The latest ADP private payrolls data is due on Wednesday with the data watched closely after a reported payrolls decline of 32,000 last month. Consensus forecasts are for an October increase of around 30,000.

ING commented; “Our short-term fair value model is now showing a 1% undervaluation, and with positioning now much more balanced, the pair can enjoy faster rallies on poor US jobs market news.”

Commerzbank’s FX analyst Michael Pfister noted the divisions within the central bank, but added; “The more dovish members seem to sense an opportunity to take a more dominant stance at the moment.”

According to Pfister; “Therefore, we are less certain than the market that interest rate cuts have really become less likely in the coming year after Jerome Powell’s rather hawkish press conference last week, and whether the USD’s strength in recent weeks is really justified.”

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– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Dips as Reeves Warns of Tax Hikes

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped below the 1.3100 level to hit fresh 6-month lows near 1.3070.

GBP was undermined on Tuesday by a clear warning from Chancellor Reeves that taxes will be increased this month.

There was also increased speculation over further Bank of England rate cuts this year with Sterling also undermined by weaker equity markets.

GBP/USD Forecasts: 6-month lows

There is notable uncertainty over the dollar outlook, but GBP/USD is at risk of a slide to 1.3000.

Just after Tuesday’s European open, Chancellor Reeves delivered a very unusual pre-budget speech to set out the framework for the November 26th budget and justify the potential decisions, especially on taxes.

There was an attempt to justify higher taxes and clear evidence that Reeves will look to put pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates at a faster pace and create the conditions for lower bond yields.

There was choppy trading in UK bonds with the 10-year yield close to 2025 lows just below 4.40% before trading around 4.42%.

The FTSE 100 index traded around 1.0% lower on the day with weaker risk conditions.

According to Reeves; “As I take my decisions on both tax and spend, I will do what is necessary to protect families from high inflation and interest rates.”

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, commented, “In an unusual address ahead of this month’s Autumn Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves tried to prepare voters for tax hikes by laying out the UK’s economic challenges.”

There will be speculation of targeted measures to cut the cost of living which could include lower taxes on retail energy prices.

There is also a clear intent to get borrowing costs down with lower bond yields and further Bank of England rate cuts.

Markets are pricing in around a 35% chance of a cut this week and the Pound will be vulnerable if expectations of a cut this year continue to build.

The dollar has maintained a firm tone in global markets amid fresh uncertainty over Fed policy. The US government shutdown could also have a greater impact

MUFG commented; “There is no end in sight to the shutdown and the longer this drags on the bigger the economic implication will be.”

Markets are now pricing in around a 70% chance of a further rate cut at the December meeting, but here is a high degree of uncertainty.

MUFG added; “Powell likely wants to avoid appearing as though markets are forcing the Fed to cut. We still argue that the labour market warrants more rate cuts, but the risk is the Fed skips meetings ahead.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts