The GBPJPY pair activated the previously suggested bearish corrective track, putting it under strong negative pressure to achieve the previously suggested stations by reaching 201.15, then retesting the extra support at 201.75.
Forming extra barrier at 202.55 level and the continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic will increase the efficiency of the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting 200.45 level, and surpassing it might extend the losses towards 199.20 directly.
The expected trading range for today is between 200.45 and 202.55
The GBPJPY pair activated the previously suggested bearish corrective track, putting it under strong negative pressure to achieve the previously suggested stations by reaching 201.15, then retesting the extra support at 201.75.
Forming extra barrier at 202.55 level and the continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic will increase the efficiency of the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting 200.45 level, and surpassing it might extend the losses towards 199.20 directly.
The expected trading range for today is between 200.45 and 202.55
The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped sharply on Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of the UK government’s upcoming autumn budget.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at 1.32815, down around 0.44% from Tuesday’s opening levels.
The Pound (GBP) came under renewed pressure after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that the UK faces a £20bn fiscal shortfall, largely due to weak productivity and slowing growth.
The findings intensified speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may be forced to introduce tax increases in next month’s budget to shore up the nation’s finances.
The prospect of tighter fiscal measures dampened market sentiment, with investors wary that higher taxes could weigh on household spending and slow the UK’s already fragile recovery.
As a result, Sterling struggled to find support through the European session, with the Pound weakening against a firming US Dollar.
The Greenback (USD) held steady ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, buoyed by safe-haven demand as global markets adopted a more cautious tone.
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Investors widely expect the Fed to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut, but uncertainty over future policy guidance kept USD trading volatile.
GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Decision to Steer Mid-Week Direction
Looking ahead, attention will turn squarely to the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement, which is likely to set the tone for mid-week market movement.
If Chair Jerome Powell signals that further rate cuts are on the table before year-end, the Dollar may weaken, potentially giving GBP/USD scope to rebound.
However, a more measured tone — or hints that this could mark the final cut of the cycle — could strengthen the Greenback, pushing the pair lower still.
With the UK data calendar empty until the end of the week, the Pound will remain heavily influenced by global sentiment and speculation over both Fed policy and UK fiscal plans in the run-up to the November budget.
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The (ETHUSD) price settled with sharp decline in its last intraday trading, amid the emergence of the negative signals on the relative strength indicators, attempting to look for rising low that might help it to recover, leaning on the support of its EMA50, providing strong chance for gaining this momentum, especially with the dominance of the bullish correction trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside trendline, with the strength relative indicators reaching exaggerated oversold levels.
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Fed Interest Rate Decision and Powell’s Press Conference
While economists speculate about the timing of a BoJ rate hike, the Fed will take center stage later on Wednesday, October 29.
Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Unless there is a surprise 50-basis-point cut, Fed Chair Powell will set the tone for markets. Support for a December rate cut to bolster the labor market and acknowledgement that inflation has peaked could send USD/JPY toward 150 and the 50-day EMA. If breached, the 200-day EMA would be the next key technical support level.
The US government shutdown could extend to day 29, leaving the Fed flying blind on crucial labor market data. Fed Chair Powell had already taken a more dovish stance before the shutdown as labor market data signaled weaker conditions.
Beyond Fed Chair Powell’s views on interest rates, there is also the potential winding down of Quantitative Tightening (QT).
On October 14, 2025, Fed Chair Powell gave his strongest signal on QT, stating:
“Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions.”
He also noted that there were early signs of tightening liquidity conditions.
Notably, winding down QT would also narrow the US-Japan rate differential, favoring the yen, potentially being compounded by a hawkish BoJ policy stance. This scenario could trigger a market event similar to the yen carry trade unwind on July 31, 2024.
Gold is replicating Tuesday’s Asian bounce toward the $4,000 mark early Wednesday as traders look to cash in on the recent sharp correction from record highs of $4,382 ahead of the critical US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.
Gold: Will the rebound last on the Fed outcome?
Having lost another 3.5% of its value so far this week, Gold is attempting a tepid recovery on profit book, as markets resort to pre-Fed repositioning.
However, the further upside in Gold appears capped by easing US-China trade concerns and the ongoing risk rally on global stocks.
Heading into the crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, Trump said that he expects to lower fentanyl linked tariffs on China, while reiterating, “I think we are going to have a great meeting with Xi.”
The near-term direction in Gold could be driven by the Fed policy announcements and the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting.
The Fed is widely expected to lower the key interest rates by another 25 basis points (bps), following the “risk management cut” in September. As the rate decision is fully priced in, the focus will be on the voting composition and any hints from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on future rate reductions.
Markets expect a 9-3 vote split, as Fed Governor Stephen Miran is again expected to dissent in favor of a 50 bps cut, while board members Goolsbee and Musalem are seen leaning in favor of rates on hold.
In case the vote count surprises with 10-2 or 11-1 in favor of a 25 bps rate cut and/ or Powell underscores the increasing downside risks to the labor market, that is likely to be perceived as dovish. This scenario is set to revive the record-setting rally for the non-yielding bullion.
However, Gold could accelerate its corrective downside if the vote split comes out hawkish, watering down hopes of further rate cuts, especially for the December meeting.
All in all, the Fed statement and Powell’s words will be closely scrutinized for the central bank’s outlook on inflation, growth and labor market amid the US government shutdown-driven data drought.
But markets could continue to remain wary ahead of Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that Gold price has sustained its rebound from near the critical support at $3,847, which is the 50% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the parabolic rise that began in mid-August.
However, it is critical for buyers to recapture the $4,000 round figure to negate the near tern bearish bias.
The important resistance levels to watch out for on a dovish Fed are $4,000 and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,064, followed by $4,129 – the 23.6% Fibo level of the same ascent.
In case of a less dovish Fed outcome, Gold could once again challenge the abovementioned 50% Fibo support at $3,847, below which the 50-day SMA at $3,795 aligns.
The last line of defense for buyers is seen at the $3,721, which the 61.8% Fibo level (Golden ratio).
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flatlining close to the 50 threshold, suggesting a lack of clear trading incentives in the bright metal.
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
The Australian dollar to US dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate is trading near 0.6578, up 0.3% on the day as the currency rebounds from recent lows.
Nomura has turned more optimistic on the Aussie, targeting a move to 0.6875 by the end of December as the dollar’s strength fades and domestic inflation data improve.
“We think AUD looks cheap relative to a range of cross-market indicators,” the bank said, adding that the recent pull-back “creates an opportunity to express a more bullish view on the currency.”
The easing of US–China trade tensions is a key factor. “Calmer trade relations leave a window of opportunity for volatility to remain low or drift lower, providing a healthier backdrop for AUD to rebound,” Nomura wrote.
Commodity prices are another support. “Elevated copper prices should help through the terms-of-trade channel,” it said, though the bank acknowledged that gold’s recent pull-back could pose a short-term risk.
Nomura also expects Australia’s Q3 CPI to surprise on the upside, with stronger non-tradables and services inflation reducing the likelihood of near-term RBA rate cuts.
“Our forecast CPI would mark a material miss versus the RBA’s earlier expectations,” the bank noted, “which could make the rates channel more supportive for AUD.”
Nomura’s bullish view is further reinforced by seasonal year-end inflows and a potentially softer US dollar, with the Fed likely to adopt a more dovish stance following weaker inflation data.
The GBP/JPY plunged sharply on Tuesday, close to 200 pips or 0.97% as the cross-pair slides below the 202.00 milestone, for the first time since last Friday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 201.94 virtually unchanged, as Wednesday’s Asian session begins.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY technical picture shows that the uptrend remains in place, but the pair could test lower prices after it cleared the 20-day SMA at 202.43. A further extension lower looms if the cross clear September’s 18 high at 201.27, opening the door for further downside.
The next key support levels are the 50-day SMA at 200.63, followed by the 100-day SMA at 199.29 and October’s low at 197.49.
Conversely, if GBP/JPY reclaims 202.00, buyers could drive price action towards the 203.00 milestone, followed by the current week’s high at 204.24.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.13%
0.38%
-0.55%
-0.45%
-0.64%
-0.04%
-0.39%
EUR
0.13%
0.53%
-0.35%
-0.32%
-0.41%
0.09%
-0.26%
GBP
-0.38%
-0.53%
-0.99%
-0.84%
-0.95%
-0.43%
-0.82%
JPY
0.55%
0.35%
0.99%
0.02%
-0.17%
0.40%
0.07%
CAD
0.45%
0.32%
0.84%
-0.02%
-0.24%
0.41%
0.02%
AUD
0.64%
0.41%
0.95%
0.17%
0.24%
0.52%
0.13%
NZD
0.04%
-0.09%
0.43%
-0.40%
-0.41%
-0.52%
-0.39%
CHF
0.39%
0.26%
0.82%
-0.07%
-0.02%
-0.13%
0.39%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped on Tuesday as renewed UK fiscal concerns weighed on Sterling ahead of the government’s autumn budget.
Latest — Exchange Rates: Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.32817 (-0.44%) Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.16636 (+0.11%) Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): 152.0495 (-0.42%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) came under pressure on Tuesday after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that the UK faces a £20bn fiscal gap due to weak productivity growth.
The assessment fuelled speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may be forced to announce tax hikes in next month’s Autumn Budget to stabilise public finances.
The prospect of tighter fiscal policy dampened market confidence, keeping Sterling subdued throughout Tuesday’s European session.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) traded mixed as investors positioned cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
The Greenback firmed modestly against risk-sensitive rivals amid a mildly risk-off backdrop, though gains were capped as traders awaited confirmation of the Fed’s expected 25bp rate cut.
As a result, GBP/USD drifted lower through the session, with broader sentiment providing little relief for either currency.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Decision to Steer Dollar Moves
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement will dominate mid-week trade.
Markets have already priced in a quarter-point rate cut, which could see the Dollar weaken modestly if confirmed.
However, a larger cut — or a dovish signal on future easing — could spark a sharper Greenback selloff, potentially allowing the Pound to recover lost ground.
For Sterling, a quiet UK calendar leaves the currency vulnerable to external sentiment shifts.
Should risk appetite improve and markets turn optimistic, GBP/USD could rebound as investors rotate out of the Dollar and back into higher-yielding assets.
Last week’s $4.21 high formed a lower swing high, testing mid-June’s $4.23 interim peak. Short-term weakness suggests another test of support near the 200-day average at $3.61 and recent swing low at $3.60.
Upside Breakout Path
A decisive rally above $4.21 targets the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.47, provided $4.23 holds. An early strength signal comes on a rally above last week’s $4.14 high.
Support Confluence Ahead
A break below $3.83 could trigger a weekly bearish reversal, with the 50-day line at $3.55 as key support. This average aligns with the short-term uptrend, rising above the long-term uptrend line and lower boundary of a small rising channel, forming a significant support zone. The 50-day at $3.52 marks the lower end. A bounce is expected here given the confluence.
Channel Dynamics
Last week’s $4.14 high tested resistance at the top rising channel line. Today’s bearish reversal makes the lower channel line a potential target, increasing odds of reaching the 50-day line. Support near the 200-day is bolstered by two rising trendlines, one declining, and the 50-day average.
Outlook
The $3.82 close decides—below it opens $3.55, above it defends structure. A short downward trendline, confirmed at today’s high, signals new highs if broken. The channel target and support confluence favor a bounce at $3.55—watch for reversal strength or further downside.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
