The EURJPY pair formed a new bullish attack, taking advantage of the repeated positive pressure, to attack the resistance of the bullish channel’s resistance at 170.60, achieving the suggested target in the previous report.
The price might be forced to provide mixed trading due to the strength of the current resistance besides stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, to increase the chances of activating the attempts of gathering the gains by targeting 169.20 and 168.60 level, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will open the way for recording new gains that might extend to 171.10 and 171.60.
The expected trading range for today is between 169.20 and 170.60
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Platinum price failed to confirm surpassing the barrier at $1420.00, forcing it to form a new bearish correctional rebound, testing the minor bullish channel’s support at $1370.00.
Despite the attempt of the price stability above the mentioned support, the continuation of forming strong obstacle at $1420.00 level might activate the bearish correctional track, therefore, we recommend waiting for breaking the current support, then begin gathering some of the gains by targeting 41345.00 and $1330.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1400.00
Platinum price failed to confirm surpassing the barrier at $1420.00, forcing it to form a new bearish correctional rebound, testing the minor bullish channel’s support at $1370.00.
Despite the attempt of the price stability above the mentioned support, the continuation of forming strong obstacle at $1420.00 level might activate the bearish correctional track, therefore, we recommend waiting for breaking the current support, then begin gathering some of the gains by targeting 41345.00 and $1330.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1330.00 and $1400.00
The EURJPY pair formed a new bullish attack, taking advantage of the repeated positive pressure, to attack the resistance of the bullish channel’s resistance at 170.60, achieving the suggested target in the previous report.
The price might be forced to provide mixed trading due to the strength of the current resistance besides stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, to increase the chances of activating the attempts of gathering the gains by targeting 169.20 and 168.60 level, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will open the way for recording new gains that might extend to 171.10 and 171.60.
The expected trading range for today is between 169.20 and 170.60
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
Register now to be able to add articles to your reading list.
” aria-hidden=”true”>
Quick overview
USD/JPY briefly approached 145.22 before pulling back, supported by a renewed risk appetite from a U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement.
Tensions between the U.S. and Japan are rising, with Trump threatening tariffs on Japanese goods amid stalled trade talks.
The Bank of Japan remains hawkish while the Fed signals caution, leading to a weakening U.S. dollar as market expectations for rate cuts grow.
Technical analysis shows USD/JPY testing critical support at 144.20, with potential for further gains or a shift towards downside targets.
During Thursday’s European session, USD/JPY extended its recovery, briefly approaching 145.22 before pulling back. The pair found support from renewed risk appetite, partly driven by a fresh trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam. That deal eased some global trade anxiety, cutting into demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
At the same time, tensions between the U.S. and Japan are flaring. Former President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats, warning of duties as high as 35% on Japanese goods, citing Tokyo’s unwillingness to buy U.S. rice. These comments came as trade talks between the two nations stalled ahead of the July 9 deadline. While risk-on sentiment helped push USD/JPY higher, geopolitical stress and trade friction are beginning to cap gains.
BoJ Stays Hawkish While the Fed Signals Caution
On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan remains one of the few central banks still discussing tightening. Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reinforced that rates remain below neutral and may need to rise further, especially with inflation staying above the BoJ’s 2% target for over three years. These expectations continue to provide a floor for the Yen.
In contrast, the U.S. dollar is starting to lose ground as Fed expectations turn dovish.
After June’s ADP report showed a shocking drop of 33,000 private payrolls, all eyes turned to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, which printed at 147,000—slightly above estimates but not strong enough to reverse softening sentiment. Unemployment ticked up to 4.1%, while wage growth slowed to 0.2%, indicating cooling inflation.
Market pricing now reflects about a 25% chance of a July rate cut, and expectations for two cuts before year-end are solidifying. Political pressure isn’t helping either, Trump’s public remarks about Powell’s leadership and potential resignation calls have stirred concerns about the Fed’s independence, which is additionally weakening the dollar’s appeal.
Technical Analysis: Momentum Fades at Channel Support
the USD/JPY pair is now trading near 144.35, pulling back from the 145.22 resistance. Price remains within a rising channel, but the pair is testing a critical zone where short-term sentiment could shift.
The 50-period EMA at 144.21 aligns with the lower channel boundary, acting as dynamic support.
The MACD histogram is fading, and signal lines are converging, hinting at declining momentum.
The price structure still shows higher highs and higher lows, but a break below 144.20 could open the door to 143.36 and 142.78.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
Trade Setup:
Bias: Cautiously bullish above 144.20
Buy Zone: Bullish reversal from 144.20–144.00
Upside Targets: 145.22, 145.87, 146.60
Bearish Breakdown: Close below 144.20 opens path to 143.36 and 142.78
Watch For: EMA bounce, MACD crossover, or bullish candlestick confirmation.
From my experience, this is a textbook test of momentum versus structure. If bulls defend 144.20 with conviction, another push toward 145.87 is likely. But if that zone breaks, the focus shifts sharply toward downside targets. With conflicting macro themes in play, confirmation and risk management are more important than ever.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
The Pound US Dollar exchange rate trended mostly flat on Thursday as the US released its latest non-farm payrolls index and unemployment rate.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3658, down roughly 0.3% from the start of Thursday’s session.
The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Thursday, buoyed by unexpectedly upbeat labour market data that helped reinforce confidence in the resilience of the US economy.
June’s non-farm payrolls figure exceeded expectations, climbing to 147,000 new jobs versus forecasts of a sharp drop to 110,000, up from May’s revised reading of 144,000.
Adding further support, the US unemployment rate defied predictions of a rise to 4.3%, instead dipping to 4.1% from 4.2%.
The combination of stronger-than-expected job creation and a lower jobless rate provided a boost to the US Dollar during Thursday’s European session, as investors took the data as a sign that the labour market remains on solid footing.
The Pound (GBP) regained some composure on Thursday, stabilising after a volatile mid-week session, marked by political tensions in Westminster.
Sterling had come under pressure on Wednesday amid speculation surrounding Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ standing within the Labour government.
Market nerves were heightened after Prime Minister Keir Starmer refrained from offering a clear endorsement during Prime Minister’s Questions, sparking a sell-off in UK bonds and dragging GBP lower.
However, investor sentiment improved on Thursday following renewed backing for Reeves from Starmer, helping to calm concerns.
As gilt yields eased from their recent spike, the Pound found renewed support and edged higher against several of its counterparts on Thursday.
Looking ahead to Friday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to remain range-bound, with limited data and subdued trading conditions offering little direction.
With no major UK economic releases scheduled and US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, both the Pound and the US Dollar may struggle to find meaningful momentum.
In the absence of fresh catalysts, market sentiment will likely take centre stage.
However, with thin trading volumes expected, volatility may be muted. As a result, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within a narrow band as the week comes to a close.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
Near-term resistance is clear at today’s high of $3,366. Therefore, a decisive breakout above that level has gold heading towards a prior lower swing high at $3,396. And it has a good chance of busting through there and continuing to a test of resistance around the recent swing high of $3,451. Slow momentum has been a concern since a trendline breakout triggered on June 2.
That rally subsequently fizzled following the $3,451 high, with gold eventually falling back below the 20-Day MA, where it remains. Therefore, another reclaim of the 20-Day line should be met with some enthusiasm from buyers as indicated by bullish price momentum. And there is the potential for volatility to increase.
Trend Support Retained
Notice that the most recent bounce from support at the 20-Day MA (purple) in early-June was followed by a relatively sharp three-day advance. It ended with a bearish outside day, like today. This only becomes relevant if Tuesday’s support fails and bearish momentum rises. Volatility should increase soon given the convergence of the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs recently. They are now the closest to one another since the beginning of the current upswing that began in January. That could help pump up a bull breakout.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Bearish behavior today did not confirm that one-day bullish reversal breakout that triggered yesterday. It puts recent support, with a low of $3.29, at further risk of being broken. But Wednesday’s low of $3.37 would need to fail before Tuesday’s low is approached. In addition, notice that the 50-Day MA (orange) shows an area of resistance near Thursday and Wednesday highs. There has been no confirmation of strength with a daily close above that line. Although natural gas is holding a significant support area, it needs to turn up and stay up.
200-Day Line Remains Under Pressure
This is the third time since April that support around the 200-Day line has rejected price to the upside. That behavior adds to the significance of the long-term dynamic trend indicator. Therefore, a decisive drop back below that line shows a failure of the 200-Day MA as support and a breakdown from a significant support level.
Looking at the bigger picture of the current advance shows similar characteristics to a bear flag. Therefore, the breakdown of the 200-Day line is also a bearish trigger for the three-month rising trend channel. There is potential trendline support nearby though and a continuation lower could quickly find support. If not at the line, then certainly the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement area at $3,134
Rally Above $3.57 Will Show Bulls Back
The next bullish sign will be on a rally above today’s high of $3.57. If strength continues from there, an interim swing high at $3.75 is next in line, followed by the first May swing high at $3.84. But a clear reversal from the bottom channel line has the potential to rise towards the top of the channel. There are several Fibonacci levels nearby from $5.35 to $4.46.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver price gains sharply to near the two-week high around $36.80 ahead of the US NFP data for June.
The US private sector saw a reduction in the labor force in June as businesses laid-off 33K workers.
Silver price aims to reclaim the over-a-decade-high around $37.32.
Silver price revisits two-week high near $36.80 during European trading hours on Thursday. The white metal trades firmly ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
The US official employment data will significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook as officials have lately warned of downside labor market risks.
Economists expect US employers to have added 110K fresh workers, fewer than 139K in May. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 4.3% from the prior reading of 4.2%. Soft labor market data could bolster market expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates in the policy meeting later this month.
Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Latest US ADP Employment figures suggests that the official labor market data could be weaker. The data showed on Wednesday that the US private sector laid-off 33K employees in June, while they were expected to hire 95K fresh workers. Additionally, the May reading was also revised lower to 29K from 37K.
“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said.
On the global front, US President Donald trump has announced that his team has struck a trade agreement with Vietnam. This comes at a time when the July 9 tariff deadline is approaching.
Theoretically, improving global trade conditions diminish demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver. However, the Silver price remains firm as the Asian country is not one of top major trading partners of the US with whom it is still negotiating bilateral deals.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strengthens after a breakout of the Descending Triangle chart pattern formed on a four-hour time. Theoretically, the breakout of the above-mentioned chart pattern often leads to a volatility expansion, which results in higher volume and wider ticks on the upside.
The downward-sloping trendline of the Descending Triangle formation is plotted from the June 18 high of $37.32, while the horizontal support is marked from the June 20 low of $35.51.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI holds above that level.
Looking down, the March 28 high around $34.60 will act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the fresh over-a-decade high around $37.32 will be the key barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The US dollar has skyrocketed against the Japanese yen, breaking above the 145 yen level almost immediately, and now we are threatening that 50 day EMA. Ultimately, I do think this is a situation where traders will eventually try to push this market back to the upside anyways, because quite frankly, the Bank of Japan has a major issue on its hands in the form of a lackluster bond market. They will sooner or later be forced to do a bit of quantitative easing. When they do, the Japanese yen will sink. This is one of the few places that I expect a complete turnaround in the US dollar. So, I like buying dips. I think we will go higher.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
And yet again, we find ourselves near the 0.6550 level in the Australian dollar. The market broke down below that level for a brief moment, only to turn around and bounce a bit. So, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, but I do think you have a situation where traders are going to continue to look at this as a magnet for price. If it can hold for support, then that’s a good sign for the Australian dollar. It could send the Aussie dollar as high as 0.67, we’ll just have to wait and see.
The move higher has been in an extreme grind more than anything else. So, if you’re a short term kind of scalper type of trade aficionado, then you’ll love the Aussie. Clearly, it’s a buy on the dip market, but as far as momentum to the upside, it’s very slow trading indeed.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
